Rebuild or reset ?
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pietillidie
Joined: 07 Jan 2005
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Let's face it, we're nutters. We've swung from meth-head instability to nursing home-level sclerosis.
Something like a 12-year presidency and a six-year unsuccessful coaching stint, or thereabouts pending events on the ground, would've been about right. But no, we had to go from weekly sack-the-coach histrionics to a 20-year presidency and a 10-year unsuccessful coach.
If we were a psych patient, you'd diagnose us with something like vulnerable narcissism; big talking but lacking a sustainable intrinsic confidence and constantly reacting without a clear sense of self and proportion. It's as if our primary goal was to prove how stable we were to the world, rather than build a competitive, winning club.
The diagnosis is probably obvious to everyone except ourselves, but being a competition it's not in anyone else's interest to point it out.
_________________
In the end the rain comes down, washes clean the streets of a blue sky town.
Help Nick's: http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/fundraising.htm |
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matrix10
Joined: 17 May 2009
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| Presti35 wrote: | The reset has already begun.
I'd be surprised if there isn't any changed in the coaching staff and recruitment staff. I think we can expect that.
We have got young talent on the list; led by IQ and Daics. Our debutants this year are looking ok so far too.
A few changes by outgoing players and hopefully the addition of a quality free agent and good draft prospects including Nick Daicos. A few tweaks to the list and a new game plan and the reset is well on its way.
Sure, we wont be premiership contenders overnight, but we'll be putting our foot forward and looking at playing finals again very soon.
No "bottoming out", no ridiculous trading, and no losing mindset.
We dont want to get stuck in that trap.
Address the forward line first and foremost and go from there. |
Agreed
So close in 2018- and let's be honest no one really expected that.
2019 was again a close one and was likely our best shot in recent times.
Last year we saw we were dropping off- around abouts but not truly contenders.
Club obviously saw writing on the wall and realised that we were on a downward trajectory and needed to refresh the list and clear cap space.
Got rid of a dozen or so players- some age, some form, some salary.
Had to keep some older heads-eg. Mayne, Levi and some borderline players for stability and salary cap reasons.
Drafted well at end of 2021
Entered 2021 with a thin list- not much room for injury or error.
Lose our 2 most dynamic forwards and our only real grunt midfielder and then our backline general.
Exposed for lack of depth.
We lost to Dogs by 2 goals and we played terribly- they have looked genuine chances
Beat Carlton- who arent terrible
Brisbane game killed us- win that and momentum and confidence shifts.
Instead we go to 1-3 then have WC in Perth and lose howe and DeGoey in second q after starting like a house on fire.
We will be Ok- this year is a write off re: finals- now it is about building for the future- can see this happening with blooding of youngsters.
I have stopped listening/watching/reading pies related media- much better for the soul. |
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simon tonna
Joined: 24 Oct 2013
Location: carindale
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| The Boy Who Cried Wolf wrote: | No it's going to have to be a full rebuild... a reset would only further delay our issues, give us no chance at a flag and put us smack bang in the same spot. I actually think we can't afford a free agent, certainly not one of quality... as for the draft, we'll get into that (other than N.Daicos) through trading players like JDG etc, otherwise were going to have to wait and tank.. wait and tank... how do you think we got Pendles and Daisy?
Look at what happened to the Saints after 2011 and it was clear they'd run their race... and don't think for a second that just because the name of our club is Collingwood we're immune to that - we're exactly where we should be, the club has played games and favorites for years and now we're going to pay, this is a professional industry... not a boys club. We're going to get exactly what we deserve ... i.e years in the wilderness - our only hope is to do things right... from now till forever more. |
And may I add that a new coaching panel is imperative. In a rebuilding phase with such a young list we need to teach the kids from the ground up so the foundations are there to build sustained success as you say from now till ever more.The footy department and recruiting needs to evolve constantly to on field needs and everyone must be amicable. Right now the board needs to filter out who’s in and who’s in it to feed their own egos and selfish agendas, but who and how all things can make things happen this way to kick it off, I don’t know. All I know is we’re in a shit spot right now and losing games of footy seems to me unimportant for now. F$&k the coaches of as soon as humanly and wisely possible then keep the rebuilding phase for evermore.
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no second chances |
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RudeBoy
Joined: 28 Nov 2005
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| An excellent summation Matrix10. |
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Raef 
Joined: 19 May 2004
Location: Hobart
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| matrix10 wrote: | | Presti35 wrote: | The reset has already begun.
I'd be surprised if there isn't any changed in the coaching staff and recruitment staff. I think we can expect that.
We have got young talent on the list; led by IQ and Daics. Our debutants this year are looking ok so far too.
A few changes by outgoing players and hopefully the addition of a quality free agent and good draft prospects including Nick Daicos. A few tweaks to the list and a new game plan and the reset is well on its way.
Sure, we wont be premiership contenders overnight, but we'll be putting our foot forward and looking at playing finals again very soon.
No "bottoming out", no ridiculous trading, and no losing mindset.
We dont want to get stuck in that trap.
Address the forward line first and foremost and go from there. |
Agreed
So close in 2018- and let's be honest no one really expected that.
2019 was again a close one and was likely our best shot in recent times.
Last year we saw we were dropping off- around abouts but not truly contenders.
Club obviously saw writing on the wall and realised that we were on a downward trajectory and needed to refresh the list and clear cap space.
Got rid of a dozen or so players- some age, some form, some salary.
Had to keep some older heads-eg. Mayne, Levi and some borderline players for stability and salary cap reasons.
Drafted well at end of 2021
Entered 2021 with a thin list- not much room for injury or error.
Lose our 2 most dynamic forwards and our only real grunt midfielder and then our backline general.
Exposed for lack of depth.
We lost to Dogs by 2 goals and we played terribly- they have looked genuine chances
Beat Carlton- who arent terrible
Brisbane game killed us- win that and momentum and confidence shifts.
Instead we go to 1-3 then have WC in Perth and lose howe and DeGoey in second q after starting like a house on fire.
We will be Ok- this year is a write off re: finals- now it is about building for the future- can see this happening with blooding of youngsters.
I have stopped listening/watching/reading pies related media- much better for the soul. |
Finally, a post worth agreeing with!
How this can be refuted is beyond me, but I'm sure I'll find out very soon!
Nicely done Matrix10. |
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PyreneesPie 
PyreneesPie
Joined: 22 Aug 2014
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| Agree - it's simply refreshing to get a different point of view on the season so far. |
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gurugeoff
Joined: 09 Oct 2013
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| Posing this as a question implies we have a choice. As footy classified highlighted on Monday, our team is largely a collection of kids who were not high draft picks, ageing stars and a collection of basketballers, vfl players, overseas players- there is not enough here to reset with, and we don’t have any draft pics, so we can’t rebuild either, so we’re going to be a bottom dweller for a fair time |
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matrix10
Joined: 17 May 2009
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| gurugeoff wrote: | | Posing this as a question implies we have a choice. As footy classified highlighted on Monday, our team is largely a collection of kids who were not high draft picks, ageing stars and a collection of basketballers, vfl players, overseas players- there is not enough here to reset with, and we don’t have any draft pics, so we can’t rebuild either, so we’re going to be a bottom dweller for a fair time |
Yet on SEN Matt ‘no axe to grind’ Rendell reckons we have a team capable of winning the flag next year
Carlton and GWS have had a team of basically first round draft picks and how have they gone?
Richmond has one of arguably the worst lists on paper but do alright
As I mentioned in a previous post- ignore media as they talk crap for a living and Collingwood sell papers/ad space |
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The Boy Who Cried Wolf
Joined: 26 Sep 2013
Location: We prefer free speech - you know it's right
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| matrix10 wrote: | | gurugeoff wrote: | | Posing this as a question implies we have a choice. As footy classified highlighted on Monday, our team is largely a collection of kids who were not high draft picks, ageing stars and a collection of basketballers, vfl players, overseas players- there is not enough here to reset with, and we don’t have any draft pics, so we can’t rebuild either, so we’re going to be a bottom dweller for a fair time |
Yet on SEN Matt ‘no axe to grind’ Rendell reckons we have a team capable of winning the flag next year
Carlton and GWS have had a team of basically first round draft picks and how have they gone?
Richmond has one of arguably the worst lists on paper but do alright
As I mentioned in a previous post- ignore media as they talk crap for a living and Collingwood sell papers/ad space |
He's kidding himself. He does have a lot to say and I'd say most is actually fairly close to the mark, axe to grind or not, but this is off - we could win the flag next year if everything went absolutely perfectly and we had a new coach - well the problem is even if we have a new coach, not everything will go perfectly as that's the nature of life. We'd literally have to have zero injuries or suspensions.
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All Aboard!! Choo Choo!!! |
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stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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Skids 
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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A very costly mistake....
| Quote: | A year after losing the 2018 decider to West Coast, Collingwood decided to chase former Pies star Dayne Beams.
When Beams was sent to the Brisbane Lions four years earlier, the Magpies had made out like bandits, receiving Jack Crisp and a draft pick that became Jordan De Goey.
But to get him back they had to give up a pair of first round picks. It didn't work out — Beams struggled with form and health issues, and was forced into early retirement.
The subsequent payout brought a tight salary situation to crisis point. |
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Don't count the days, make the days count. |
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Pies4shaw 
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| The chart of "Player Approximate Value (PAV) of the 20 most valuable Collingwood players in the 2018 grand final season, by 2021 status" will make the anti-Grundy-ites choke on their Weeties, of course. Seriously, the problem remains that two of our present three best footballers on that analysis were two of our best players 12 seasons ago. For all the player ins and outs since 2010, the team has lost quality, on balance, with almost every new introduction to the team. |
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RudeBoy
Joined: 28 Nov 2005
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| Put simply, our recruiting and list management has been shite for many years. |
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qldmagpie67
Joined: 18 Dec 2008
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| Pies4shaw wrote: | | The chart of "Player Approximate Value (PAV) of the 20 most valuable Collingwood players in the 2018 grand final season, by 2021 status" will make the anti-Grundy-ites choke on their Weeties, of course. Seriously, the problem remains that two of our present three best footballers on that analysis were two of our best players 12 seasons ago. For all the player ins and outs since 2010, the team has lost quality, on balance, with almost every new introduction to the team. |
I’ve never heard of the PAV award data or spoken of before
Is it a newspaper data flow or someone on the outside ?
Champion data to which 95% of all media outlets refer to and use as a players value or input to me is a more reliable and exact science
Just for the record
Prior Round 1 2019 Champion Data player rankings Collingwood
Based on average points per round from 2018 season
Collingwood
Brodie Grundy #5
Scott Pendlebury #9
Adam Treloar #11
Taylor Adams #24
Jack Crisp #29
Jordan DeGoey #31
Steele Sidebottom #43
Jeremy Howe #49
Tom Phillips #76
Brayden Maynard #88
Will Hoskin-Elliott #122
Travis Varcoe #149
James Aish ##171
Josh Thomas #215
Chris Mayne #243
Mason Cox #256
Levi Greenwood #319
Tom Langdon #336
Tyson Goldsack #367
*Brodie Mihocek, Brayden Sier, Jaidyn Stephenson hadn’t played 50 games to qualify for ranking
We had 10 players in top 100 players
Champion Data rankings Collingwood 2021
Based on average points per round until round 7 2021
15 Darcy Moore (was injured didn’t play GF 2018)
24 Taylor Adams
30 Adam Treloar (now at the bulldogs)
31 Jack Crisp
47 Jeremy Howe
60 Scott Pendlebury
76 Tom Phillips (Now at Hawks)
85 Brayden Maynard
107 Brodie Grundy
114 Jordan DeGoey
128 James Aish (now at Fremantle)
153 Steele Sidebottom
222 Brody Mihocek
286 Jamie Elliott (didn’t play 2018 GF)
374 Levi Greenwood
380 Josh Thomas
390 Mason Cox
474 Brayden Sier
495 Chris Mayne
498 Will Hoskin-Elliott
Langdon Goldsack Varcoe all retired
All other players not listed haven’t played 50 games
Taylor Adams is the only player to maintain his ranking and only Howe Crisp and Maynard have maintained close to there rankings since round 1 2019
The form across the board of the team has fallen dramatically |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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| qldmagpie67 wrote: | ...
I’ve never heard of the PAV award data or spoken of before
Is it a newspaper data flow or someone on the outside ?
... |
QM, whatever it is, we can be sure "PAV" is crap.
All the made-up numbers are crap. (That includes Supercoach ranking points, etc.) I've been trying to explain this to folks here for years...
And the reason CD are so scummy with their raw(ish) data is that they fear they can't actually add any value to them. So all they can do is keep it from the public. That's not what happens in overseas leagues. |
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