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100 years of VFL/AFL history indicates we need a new coach.

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swoop42 Virgo

Whatcha gonna do when he comes for you?


Joined: 02 Aug 2008
Location: The 22

PostPosted: Sun May 02, 2021 1:59 am
Post subject: 100 years of VFL/AFL history indicates we need a new coach.Reply with quote

*Mods please don't merge thread as this took time and effort to produce*

I appreciate it will be hard for some of you, hell as someone who pushed hard for the succession plan this isn't how I imagined or hoped it would turn out also but if you take all the emotion out of it and study the cold hard evidence then I'm afraid you can only come to the conclusion that the chances Buckley will ever become a Premiership coach are now minuscule.

If that's the case then I ask of you what's the point in continuing with him beyond this season?

Some might well still cling to the argument (hope) that history is made to be broken but let's be honest here the chances a coach of Collingwood will be the one to do something no other coach has in 100 years is the heart doing your thinking and not your head for mine.

History can be a cruel mistress also and while it can be broken it often repeats and insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

That is the moment in Collingwood history we have now reached IMO, the odds against Buckley are now stacked on 3 fronts and it'll take a miracle to see him ever raise the Premiership cup.

I'd rather move forward and put my hope in a new coach, with fresh ideas and a clean slate rather than require some divine intervention.

For the record and to be fair coaches like Ross Lyon and Brad Scott should also be ruled out as coaching candidates as they fail the same criteria as Buckley.

The Evidence.


Time period: VFL/AFL seasons 1920 to 2020

Premiership coaches: 45
Coaches who won their first Premiership beyond 9 seasons: 0
Coaches who won their first Premiership in their 9th season: 1
Coaches who missed 4 or more consecutive final series prior to coaching first Premiership: *2
*Mick Malthouse 1986 – 1989. Final 5 in place.
*Norm Smith 1949 – 1953. Two seasons as player/coach with Fitzroy. Final 4 in place.

Coaches who won Premierships as players: 27
Coaches who won Premierships as a player/coach only: 7
Coaches who weren’t Premiership players: 11

Time Period: AFL seasons 1990 to 2020

Premiership coaches: 14
Coaches who won Premierships as players: 9
Coaches who weren’t Premiership players: 5

Adam Simpson
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 5th year of coaching (2018)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 2018: 1
Damien Hardwick
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 8th year of coaching (2017)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 2017: 3
Luke Beveridge
Premiership player: No
First Premiership won in: 2nd year of coaching (2016)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 2016: 0
John Longmire
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 2nd year of coaching (2012)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 2012: 0
Chris Scott
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 1st year of coaching (2011)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 2011: N/A
Alastair Clarkson
Premiership player: No
First Premiership won in: 4th year of coaching (2008)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 2008: 2
Mark Thompson
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 8th year of coaching (2007)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 2007: 3
John Worsfold
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 5th year of coaching (2006)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 2006: 0
Paul Roos
Premiership player: No
First Premiership won in: *4th year of coaching (2005)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 2005: 1
*Roos was appointed senior coach after round 12 of the 2002 season
Mark Williams
Premiership player: No
First Premiership won in: 6th year of coaching (2004)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 2004: 1
Malcolm Blight
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: *8th year of coaching (1997)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1997: 1
*This includes his 1 season of being a player/coach at North Melbourne in 1981.
Denis Pagan
Premiership player: No
First Premiership won in: 4th year of coaching (1996)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1996: 0
Mick Malthouse
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 9th year of coaching (1992)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1992: *4
*Final 5 was in place during those 4 seasons
Leigh Matthews
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: *5th year of coaching (1990)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1990: 2
*Matthews was appointed senior coach after round 3 of the 1986 season
Alan Joyce
Premiership player: No
First Premiership won in: 1st year of coaching (1988)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1988: N/A
Robert Walls
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 7th year of coaching (1987)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1987: 1
Kevin Sheedy
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 4th year of coaching (1984)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1984: 0
Tony Jewel
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 2nd year of coaching (1980)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1980: 1
Alex Jesaulenko
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 2nd year of coaching (1979)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1979: 0
David Parkin
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 2nd year of coaching (1978)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1978: 0
John Nicholls
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 1st year of coaching (1972)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1972: N/A
Ron Barassi
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 4th year of coaching (1968)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1968: 2
Tom Hafey
Premiership player: No
First Premiership won in: 2nd year of coaching (1967)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1967: 1
Alan Jeans
Premiership player: No
First Premiership won in: 6th year of coaching (1966)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1966: 1
Bob Davis
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 4th year of coaching (1963)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1963: 2
John Coleman
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 2nd year of coaching (1962)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1962: 1
John Kennedy
Premiership player: No
First Premiership won in: 2nd year of coaching (1961)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1961: 1
Norm Smith
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: *7th year of coaching (1955)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1955: **5
*This includes his 2 seasons as a player/coach with Fitzroy in 1949/50
**Final 4 in place during those 5 seasons. Includes 2 seasons as player/coach.
Charlie Sutton
Premiership player: Yes (player/coach only)
First Premiership won in: 4th year as player/coach (1954)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1954: 1
Phonse Kyne
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: *4th year of coaching (1953)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1953: 1
*This includes his 1 season as player/coach in 1950
Reg Hickey
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 3rd year of coaching (1951)
3rd year as player/coach (1937)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1951: 1
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1937: 2
Perce Bentley
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 5th year of coaching (1945)
1st year as player/coach (1934)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1945: 1
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1934: N/A
Fred Hughson
Premiership player: No
First Premiership won in: 2nd year as player/coach (1944)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1944: 0
Jack Dyer
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 3rd year as player/coach (1943)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1943: 0
Dick Reynolds
Premiership player: Yes (player/coach only)
First Premiership won in: 4th year as player/coach (1942)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1942: 1
Brighton Diggins
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 1st year as player/coach (1938)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1938: N/A
Jack Bisset
Premiership player: Yes (player/coach only)
First Premiership won in: 1st year as player/coach (1933)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1933: N/A
Frank Hughes
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: 6th year of coaching (1932)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1932: 0
Charlie Clymo
Premiership player: No
First Premiership won in: 1st season of coaching (1931)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1931: N/A
Jock McHale
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: *2nd year of coaching (1919)
6th year as player/coach (1917)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1919: 0
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1917: 1
*McHale was only credited with 1 game played in both the 1918/20 seasons so I decided not to label him as a player/coach beyond 1917
Bert Chadwick
Premiership player: Yes (player/coach only)
First Premiership won in: 2nd year as player/coach (1926)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1926: 0
Cliff Rankin
Premiership player: Yes (player/coach only)
First Premiership won in: 1st year as player/coach (1925)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1925: N/A
Syd Barker
Premiership player: Yes (player/coach only)
First Premiership won in: 2nd year as player/coach (1923)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1923: 0
Vic Belcher
Premiership player: Yes
First Premiership won in: *4th year of coaching (1922)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1922: 1
*This includes his 3 seasons as player/coach with South Melbourne between 1914/17
Dan Minogue
Premiership player: Yes (player/coach only)
First Premiership won in: 1st year as player/coach (1920)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1920: N/A

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What'sinaname Libra

The great pretender


Joined: 29 May 2010
Location: In your radio

PostPosted: Sun May 02, 2021 5:58 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

Also, over the past 40 years, there have been just two premiership coaches that were marque players at the same team

John Worsfold and Robert Walls, the latter being an extremely dodgy flag given all we know about Carlton's under the table payments.
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The Boy Who Cried Wolf 



Joined: 26 Sep 2013
Location: We prefer free speech - you know it's right

PostPosted: Sun May 02, 2021 7:59 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

So you're pretty much saying we should dump Buckley, and since the only realistic coaching option available with experience is Mark Williams we should hire him? Wink
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think positive Libra

Side By Side


Joined: 30 Jun 2005
Location: somewhere

PostPosted: Sun May 02, 2021 8:52 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

Geezus, good effort. And yes, it’s time.
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Johnno75 



Joined: 07 Oct 2010
Location: Wantirna

PostPosted: Sun May 02, 2021 10:05 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

As it stands Ratten is the only recycled coach of the 18?

Buckley was appointed with no senior experience. Realistically we are at least 3 years away from being a serious contender. Why not look at a talented assistant rather than a recycled coach knowing we have time to build into it.

Mark Williams can play a big role as mentor but not as a senior coach.

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Pies2016 



Joined: 12 Sep 2014


PostPosted: Sun May 02, 2021 12:22 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

That’s a lot of work, Swoop.

That list also proves, good coach or not and most of those are, there comes a point when every club needs a fresh voice and a new set of eyes to oversee it.
Obviously that’s not an issue while you’re playing finals every year but we won’t be playing finals for a while, so it’s probably the perfect time for a new broom to sweep clean.
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Dave The Man Scorpio



Joined: 01 Apr 2005
Location: Someville, Victoria, Australia

PostPosted: Sun May 02, 2021 1:51 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

Common Sense says we need a Whole New Footy Department and Board
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PyreneesPie Pisces



Joined: 22 Aug 2014


PostPosted: Sun May 02, 2021 4:07 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

Pies2016 wrote:
That’s a lot of work, Swoop.

That list also proves, good coach or not and most of those are, there comes a point when every club needs a fresh voice and a new set of eyes to oversee it.
Obviously that’s not an issue while you’re playing finals every year but we won’t be playing finals for a while, so it’s probably the perfect time for a new broom to sweep clean.


Indeed, an amazing amount of time and effort there Swoop. Thanks for that!! Really interesting actually to see the records of all the coaches set out so clearly like that.

Good point you make Pies2016
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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Sun May 02, 2021 5:42 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

Great effort and research, Swoop.

Pretty much reinforces my argument that coaches who don't win a flag within a decade of starting won't amount to much beyond that.

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The Boy Who Cried Wolf 



Joined: 26 Sep 2013
Location: We prefer free speech - you know it's right

PostPosted: Sun May 02, 2021 6:37 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

Jezza wrote:
Great effort and research, Swoop.

Pretty much reinforces my argument that coaches who don't win a flag within a decade of starting won't amount to much beyond that.


I actually don't think that's set in stone. Imo we can really only use the 'AFL' data and even though its been going for a while (30 years) things change and the coaches are a lot better in comparison to each other nowadays, so its not set in stone... yet... IMO both Lyon and B.Scott could win a flag, with the right club, support and list. I'm not saying we should hire either of them (although Brad would give us 'something' we're 100% lacking now in passion which is a whole lot more we're getting from our current coach). The jury is still out but I do agree coaching for over 10 years to your criteria at the one club is close to impossible, especially in our situation where said coaches tenure is also compromised by his standing at the club with his pre coaching days.

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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Sat May 08, 2021 1:22 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

swoop42 wrote:
...
Dan Minogue
Premiership player: Yes (player/coach only)
First Premiership won in: 1st year as player/coach (1920)
Most consecutive final series missed prior to 1920: N/A

Rare video of Dan's half-time GF speech that inspired his players to victory:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JjGVrhshrqU .
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Lazza 



Joined: 04 Feb 2003
Location: Bendigo, Victoria, Australia

PostPosted: Sat May 08, 2021 1:31 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

Johnno75 wrote:
As it stands Ratten is the only recycled coach of the 18?

Buckley was appointed with no senior experience. Realistically we are at least 3 years away from being a serious contender. Why not look at a talented assistant rather than a recycled coach knowing we have time to build into it.

Mark Williams can play a big role as mentor but not as a senior coach.


I'm in full agreement. A really good assistant is a compulsory acquisition, along with development coaches. A good set up and some patience is required. Not sure if the club will travel this path but it sure beats doing nothing Rolling Eyes

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David Libra

Speak about destruction


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: in a time zone

PostPosted: Sat May 08, 2021 11:55 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

I appreciate the time you’ve put in to this Swoop, but I’m sorry to say that I think this data is a lot less meaningful than you’re portraying it as. All it shows is that clubs have, historically, not had patience with coaches who did not deliver flags within a certain number of seasons. That gives us no statistical indication whatsoever of how a coach who has overseen nine seasons without a premiership might fare in future, because very few coaches (I think around 10 of the 250 or so non-caretakers who have coached at VFL/AFL level) to begin with have lasted that long without ultimate success – like, that’s the sample pool we’d be looking at if we wanted an actual statistical indication of future success. But you’d also have to balance that against all the clubs that have also been unsuccessful for long periods while turning over coaches every few years. How many flags might, say, Melbourne or St Kilda have won in the last 50 years if they’d stuck with some coaches for long enough instead of being impatient? We have no idea.

Personally, I think basing coaching decisions off statistical averages is pretty silly anyway (such an approach, using this logic, would have seen Hardwick dispensed with long before 2017, and if we shift the goalposts a bit – but no less arbitrarily – it took Malthouse until his eleventh year with us to finally get a flag here). So let’s put aside such voodoo and irrelevant considerations like whether a coach played in a flag-winning team, and focus on more specific questions like experience, tactical skills, ability to get the best out of the playing group and ability to keep up with the evolution of the game. For me, Buckley fails on some of those criteria, and that’s why I think it’s time to try someone new. But if he didn’t, and was still the best person for the job, then it would be madness in my view to dump him just because "statistics show coaches don’t win their first flag after nine years in the job". Because a) that’s false, and b) it’s a pointless thing to factor in, in any case.

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