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Skids 

Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.


Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175

PostPosted: Sat Oct 29, 2022 10:08 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, the heart starts to pump a bit faster this time of year in the racing world. Legends will be born.
A horse is the projection of people's dreams about themselves; Strong, Powerful & Beautiful.

The COOLMORE STUD STAKES will be one race at Flemington I will be watching with great interest. A very open race for the 3 year olds. There's one I like at odds - NETTUNO. He's had nothing go right for him in his 3 runs since a spell. I like the way he hits the line. The; long straight, wet track & Damien Oliver to steer make the $23 on offer very appealing. A sound E/W chance.

Another at the $23 price that I'll be backing is KIKU in the EMPIRE ROSE STAKES. I'm not sure what went wrong last time she went around, a vet check found her with a 'çough' after the race. Another E?W bet.

At Ascot today we have the Group 3 PRINCE OF WALES. Miss Conteki is the raging favourite and will be very hard to beat. We have rain and storms forecast here for today and for me, that gives COMES A TIME a big chance to cause an upset. The Pontiff Paul Harvey in the saddle will have him in the best possible position. $9 and $2.80 makes this a solid investment today.

The other Group 3 race, THE ASIAN BEAU STAKES, I'll be having a little bet on Treasured Star at $10 and this will be my first 4 race.

1st - 15
2nd - 6, 7, 14 & 16
3rd - 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 14 & 16
4th - FD

$15 will get 5% of the dividend.

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Skids 

Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.


Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175

PostPosted: Sat Oct 29, 2022 8:13 pm
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Hope you followed my bets.

15, 14, 16, 9... got it!
Full divvy paid $32,000.... I'll take 5% of that thankyou very much. Cool

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Donny Aries

Formerly known as MAGFAN8.


Joined: 04 Aug 2002
Location: Toonumbar NSW Australia

PostPosted: Sat Oct 29, 2022 10:28 pm
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$160 collect ?

Well done Mate. Very Happy

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Skids 

Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.


Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175

PostPosted: Sat Oct 29, 2022 11:15 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

$1764 actually Donny, I put $20 on and got 5.49%.
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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Sat Oct 29, 2022 11:25 pm
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I need to digest how this all works. (I didn't see this morning's posts.)

Okay, I see the "First 4" button... Oh, I see... You can tick multiple boxes...

Okay...
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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Sat Oct 29, 2022 11:26 pm
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The 2022 Melbourne Cup field

1. GOLD TRIP. Jockey: Mark Zahra - 57.5kg. Barrier: 14
2. DUAIS. Jockey: Hugh Bowman - 55.5kg. Barrier: 10
3. KNIGHTS ORDER. Jockey: Tim Clark - 55.5kg. Barrier: 24
4. MONTEFILIA. Jockey: Jason Collett - 55.5kg. Barrier: 11
5. NUMERIAN. Jockey: Tommy Berry - 55.5kg. Barrier: 7
6. WITHOUT A FIGHT. Jockey: William Buick - 55.5kg. Barrier: 18
7. CAMORRA. Jockey: Ben Melham - 55kg. Barrier: 17
8. DEAUVILLE LEGEND. Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy - 55kg. Barrier: 9
9. STOCKMAN. Jockey: Sam Clipperton - 54kg. Barrier: 2
10. VOW AND DECLARE. Jockey: Blake Shinn - 54kg. Barrier: 4
11. YOUNG WERTHER. Jockey: Damian Lane - 54kg. Barrier: 21
12. HOO YA MAL. Jockey: Craig Williams - 53.5kg. Barrier: 15
13. SERPENTINE. Jockey: John Allen - 53.5kg. Barrier: 23
14. DAQUIANSWEET JUNIOR. Jockey: Daniel Moor - 53kg. Barrier: 13
15. GRAND PROMENADE. Jockey: Harry Coffey - 53kg. Barrier: 1
16. ARAPAHO. Jockey: Rachel King - 52.5kg. Barrier: 19
17. EMISSARY. Jockey: Patrick Moloney - 51.5kg. Barrier: 3
18. LUNAR FLARE. Jockey: Michael Dee - 51.5kg. Barrier: 12
19. SMOKIN’ ROMANS. Jockey: Jamie Kah - 51.5kg. Barrier: 16
20. TRALEE ROSE. Jockey: Dean Yendall - 51.5kg. Barrier: 22
21. POINT NEPEAN. Jockey: Wayne Lordan - 51kg. Barrier: 20
22. HIGH EMOCEAN. Jockey: Teo Nugent - 50kg. Barrier: 8
23. INTERPRETATION: Jockey: Craig Newitt - 50kg. Barrier: 6
24. REALM OF FLOWERS Jockey: Damien Thornton - 50kg. Barrier: 5
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Skids 

Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.


Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175

PostPosted: Sun Oct 30, 2022 10:12 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

K wrote:
I need to digest how this all works. (I didn't see this morning's posts.)

Okay, I see the "First 4" button... Oh, I see... You can tick multiple boxes...

Okay...


And to work out the cost, it's simple multiplication.

A single horse to win, 4 horses for 2nd, 8 horses for 3rd (4 of them being 2nd selections as well, + another 4) and the field for 4th (there were 16 in that race).
So it's 1 x 4 x 7 ( one of the 8 has to run 2nd ) x 13 ( 3 of the 16 have to fill the 1st 3 places ) = 364. That means it's $364 for a full divvy, $36.40 for 10% or each % costs $3.64.

I picked more options than I usually do in that race as I saw it being very open.

Usually I'll pick a horse to win, usually at double figure odds, then the favourite and one, two or three others for 2nd, the same horses for 3rd and the field for 4th. In a 12 horse field that equation (with 3 horses for 2nd & 3rd) would be - 1 x 3 x 2 x 9 = 54, so $10 would get you around 19% of the divvy.

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Skids 

Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.


Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175

PostPosted: Sun Oct 30, 2022 12:41 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

I've put a couple of small novelty bets on the Cup this morning.

First 4

1st - 3
2nd - 1, 8, 12, 15, 18 & 22
3rd - S2
4th - FD

$15 for 2.38%

First 4

1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 18 boxed.

$10 for 2.77%

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Donny Aries

Formerly known as MAGFAN8.


Joined: 04 Aug 2002
Location: Toonumbar NSW Australia

PostPosted: Mon Oct 31, 2022 1:39 am
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I'll have my usual $10 on #8 to win and 1/8-8/1 Exacta.

Oh, and a few Mystery Trifectas.

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Skids 

Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.


Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175

PostPosted: Wed Nov 02, 2022 7:56 am
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106k first 4.

I wasn't even close.

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Donny Aries

Formerly known as MAGFAN8.


Joined: 04 Aug 2002
Location: Toonumbar NSW Australia

PostPosted: Wed Nov 02, 2022 3:56 pm
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First & 4th. was the closest I got for my Exacta.
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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Fri Nov 04, 2022 6:06 pm
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The 2022 Melbourne Cup: results

1. Gold Trip (FR)
2. Emissary (GB)
3. High Emocean (NZ)
4. Deauville Legend (IRE)
5. Realm of Flowers
6. Daqiansweet Junior (NZ)
7. Smokin' Romans (NZ)
8. Stockman (NZ)
9. Knights Order (IRE)
10. Vow and Declare
11. Arapaho (FR)
12. Hoo Ya Mal (GB)
13. Without a Fight (IRE)
14. Grand Promenade (GB)
15. Young Werther (NZ)
16. Montefilia
17. Tralee Rose (NZ)
18. Duais
19. Numerian (IRE)
20. Serpentine (IRE)
21. Camorra (IRE)
FF Interpretation (IRE)

Scratched: Lunar Flare, Point Nepean (IRE).

....................................

Lotta international horses, huh. Favourite Deauville Legend was done in by the rain. That factor was mentioned pre-race.
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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Fri Nov 04, 2022 6:27 pm
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K wrote:
Interesting thing 'bout those odds is they really are fixed.
...

Looks like this happens before the field is set. lb spelled it out; sb just said "all in", so you have to know that's what it means.
After the field is set, it's refunds for scratchings, and odds shrinking; or as sb says, "deductions apply".

K wrote:

I'm looking for a really safe bet... (i.e. small return okay)...

I've been thinking this means picking a favourite for a place finish. That's trusting the punters to know what they're doing. If I go that way, I don't want races where upsets are likely. Dunno which those are, though. Any suggestions for the next few days, anyone? Question

I think 1.08 is too short!! But maybe something between 1.20 and 1.60...? Just to get some return from a one-off (well, two one-offs, so a "two-off") bet.
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Skids 

Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.


Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175

PostPosted: Fri Nov 04, 2022 10:05 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

I like Mr Maestro at odds ($23 & $4.80) tomorrow in Race 8 at Flemington.

Karlis Karma ($5.50 & $1.85) in the Lee Steere Stakes at Ascot is my best bet.

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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Sun Nov 06, 2022 6:38 pm
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Thanks, Skids!! Cool

Something went wrong with Mr Maestro. Finished 9th? But I didn't bet on him.

I took Karlis Karma to place (1.65 when I got there). Finished 2nd. Smile The favourite Massimo won.

What I liked (aiming for predictability): Only 9 horses, but fine weather, ... and 3 were really long odds, so that leaves 6 for 3 places. Of course that's all baked into the odds, but I was after safety/predictability, not huge payoff ('cos I'm only making 2 bets).


So worked out well! One more bet... Any relatively safe tip for next weekend or later this week? Question Thanks!
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