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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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| Skids wrote: | What a beautifully poised match!
I think I'll watch the final day, ...
England $2
Australia $2.10
Draw $9 ??? Is there a chance of rain? That's the only way it could be a draw.
I'm going to have a few units on the Aussies. |
Yup, rain was forecasted. And you'll know now that the start of play was delayed by 3 1/4 hours. At some stage on the final day, the broadcast predictor was predicting a 6% chance of a draw.
Actually with about 14 overs left, Oz needed about 50 runs with 2 wickets in hand. Can imagine a draw there. e.g. if a wicket falls and the last pair try to bat out the draw.
Reminds me of my bet on the draw in NZ vs SL. Lost 4 1/2 hours of play on the final day. Surely a good bet!! But the brilliant Kane Williamson had other ideas.
| K wrote: | ...
I went with the draw!! 
'Cos of the rain, of course. Sheesh... Losing 4 1/2 hours play on the final day, when they needed 257... Has to be a draw, right? 
But the best batsman of his generation, Kane Williamson, rewrote the script!!
.... |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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The NBA #1 draft pick was Victor Wembanyama (Spurs).
I was looking at the betting market before. It was:
Victor Wembanyama 1.005
2nd-favourite 100-ish.
Wow! Dunno how he could be so short...
(I thought: "Esp. since we don't know who gets the #1 pick," but the draft lottery apparently was long ago, May 16, so it was known Spurs had it.) |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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England v Oz 3rd Test
England 2.50
Draw 4.30
Oz 2.25
England v Oz Series
England 9.00
Draw 10.50
Oz 1.15 |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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Minus the draw, it's a coin toss:
England 2.15
Draw 7.00
Oz 2.18
But heaps of rain forecast! |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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^^ Nowhere near enough rain to bring the draw in! 
But today may be totally different! 
After the first day at Old Trafford, with Oz 8/299, Oz were shorter odds to win than England. Dunno what the punters were thinking. 317 is not a good 1st-innings score at Old Trafford. Par historically is 370+. |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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Weather's gonna be a real teaser tonight. Wonder how draw odds will fluctuate...
8am (local) pitch inspection, pushed back to 11am, pushed back to 12.15pm (9.15pm AEST).
Umps decided on 1pm resumption (early lunch)... But rain again. Covers back on.
sb odds
Draw 1.05
England 11.50
Oz 501.00 |
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Skids 
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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TAB no longer taking bets on the draw.
Poms $17
Us $126
_________________
Don't count the days, make the days count. |
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Skids
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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Snapped up what I think is a good double @ $3.60 for a nice collect... i hope.
Pies -16.5/total over 158.5.
I'm taking the draw in the final test at the same price.
Rain is forecast every day (only showers, but, it is England!) for The Oval test.
_________________
Don't count the days, make the days count. |
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Skids
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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That line has gone to -18.5. I think it will go out further as money comes for the Pies.
Happy to have locked it in at the -16.5. I honestly thought it would open around -24.5.
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Don't count the days, make the days count. |
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What'sinaname 
Joined: 29 May 2010
Location: Living rent free
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Depends on how much it rains
_________________
Fighting against the objectification of woman. |
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Skids
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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Carlton has failed to cover the line in 8 of their last 9 matches against top 8 sides.
Morning showers, will be fine by bounce down.
_________________
Don't count the days, make the days count. |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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| Skids wrote: | Carlton has failed to cover the line in 8 of their last 9 matches against top 8 sides.
... |
Do ya reckon this means anything? 
This sorta stuff sounds like random trivia, not something predictive. |
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Skids
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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Any stat that exposes these clowns will do me, although I don't need much motivation to bet against them.
_________________
Don't count the days, make the days count. |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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| The bookies themselves love feeding punters that sorta stat. They show them on the page where we place bets. |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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Report (11/2017) from the Oz Gambling Research Centre, Oz Institute of Family Studies:
https://www.dss.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/11_2017/final_report_-_betting_restrictions_report.pdf
'Australia is estimated to account for 5% of the global interactive or online gambling market'
'The current study was commissioned by the Department of Social Services (DSS) as part of the government’s response to Recommendation 15 from the O’Farrell Review into Illegal Offshore Wagering (O’Farrell Review). The impetus for the recommendation in the O’Farrell Review and the subsequent response from the Commonwealth Government came from anecdotal reports that consumers are experiencing a range of restrictions to online wagering through licenced Australian operators including monetary limits placed on their bets and account closures.'
'... many of these respondents reported individual annual turnovers of well over one million Australian dollars and in some cases as high as seven million Australian dollars. This did not appear to be uncommon in this group of astute gamblers as several spoke of knowing other Australian online wagerers who had far higher turnovers. Most community respondents in this study reported average profit margins of 3–4% per annum.'
'Of those that declared their annual gambling turnover, the amounts ranged from $100,000 to $7 million per annum over a number of years. More than one respondent reported that much larger amounts were not uncommon among other gamblers. Of those that reported their profit margins, 3-4% per annum was around the average. None reported overall losses.
Only one of the respondents in the study did not have offshore accounts. All of the others had at least one and in most cases three or four offshore accounts. Pinnacle (which was considered by the respondents to be the most reputable of the offshore operators) was the most commonly used, with Matchbook, SBOBet, 5Dimes and Citibet also popular.'
'Many of the respondents said they routinely bet amounts over $1,000 and in some cases substantially more.' |
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