 |
|
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
doriswilgus
Joined: 16 Jun 2005
Location: the great southern land
|
| Post subject: |  |
|
I saw a tweet today from ABC election analyst Anthony Green.He said it’s quite possible that the Liberals will only have three seats in metropolitan Melbourne and none in Adelaide or Perth.Just get your heads around that statistic.That party might only have three seats in three of the biggest cities in the country.
The Liberal party has been absolutely decimated in the capital cities in this election,losing large numbers of seats to Labor,the Greens and the Teals.They’re in a world of pain following this election.This might be the start iof a major realignment in Australian politics. |
|
|
|
 |
Pies4shaw 
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
|
| Post subject: | |
|
The Libs have confirmed their frustration at finding that their dislike of Andrews was not shared by their usual supporters in their "blue ribbon" electorates.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/23/they-were-having-a-go-at-victorians-how-the-liberals-miscalculated-the-anti-dan-election-strategy
| Quote: | ... Liberal strategists were confident there was another story playing out in the outer suburbs of Melbourne.
They believed there was an “anti-Dan” sentiment and attempted to capitalise on it, issuing how-to-vote cards urging voters to “send Daniel Andrews a message”. An ad campaign, targeting voters in Corangamite and McEwen, attempted to paint Albanese as Andrews’s puppet.
The result? The seats of Corangamite and Dunkley are marginal no more, with a 7.7% and 4.2% swing to Labor MPs Libby Coker and Peta Murphy respectively at the time of writing.
....
Asked to explain the party’s drubbing in a state once described as the jewel in the Liberal crown, Senator Jane Hume conceded: “We thought there would be a bigger Dan Andrews effect in Victoria and there hasn’t [been], which I find disappointing.”
....
Former Labor campaign strategist turned pollster Kos Samaras said the research his firm RedBridge conducted ahead of the election found “no evidence” to suggest a dislike of Andrews would translate to votes for the Liberals.
“The Libs drove their buses out to safe Labor seats hunting for votes and left their homes burning. They’ve been absolutely decimated,” he says.
“It’s a complete repeat of the 2018 state election.”
In 2018, there were swings against Labor in the outer west, but more significantly, the Coalition shed 10 of its 37 lower house seats, including the blue-ribbon seat of Hawthorn, which is a part of Kooyong at a state level. It also came dangerously close to losing Brighton, part of Goldstein, to a 19-year-old candidate, Labor’s Declan Martin. (Perhaps an indicator that the disillusionment in those two federal seats is not new.)
But if yesterday’s results are replicated on a state level at the November election, it would spell even more trouble for the opposition. Their leader, Matthew Guy, would lose his seat with a 7.9% swing against him, while the Liberal seats of Malvern and Kew would be under threat, and Labor could retain Hawthorn. |
Sadly for the Libs, it appears that they missed the mark playing the politics of blame:
| Quote: | ... as Andrews suggested, there was a feeling among these voters that the Liberal party had abandoned the state during the pandemic.
“The Liberal party thought that they were having a potshot at the Labor party, but … they were having a go at Victorians,” Tam, a voter in Higgins, told Guardian Australia.
“I took it personally. It has definitely swayed my vote.”
Voters we spoke to in the three electorates were outraged by the constant negative comparisons between Victoria and NSW, the lack of financial support after jobkeeper wrapped up but lockdowns dragged on, and most notably, the sluggish vaccination rollout. |
|
|
|
|
|
Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
|
|
|
|
|
David 
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
|
| Post subject: | |
|
Here's the state of play this morning:
Confirmed
Labor 72
Coalition 52
Independent 10
Greens 3
Centre Alliance 1
Katter's Australian Party 1
-----------------------------
Labor need 4 more for a majority. Here are the 12 seats that are still yet to be decided:
Seats in doubt
Labor vs Greens (Labor leading): Macnamara, Richmond
Labor vs Greens (Greens leading): Brisbane
Labor vs Liberals (Labor leading): Bennelong, Deakin, Lyons
Labor vs Liberals (Liberals leading): Bass, Gilmore, Menzies, Moore, Sturt
Nationals vs Independent (Nationals leading): Cowper
At the moment, it looks like Richmond and Bennelong are all but certain to fall to Labor, which would take them to 74. So for those of us who are hoping for a minority government, we need the Greens to pick up both of Brisbane and Macnamara or for the Liberals to win all of the seven others in balance (i.e. Deakin and Lyons plus the five they're currently leading in). So signs are certainly pointing to a Labor majority (probably 77–78 seats), but there's still a chance they won't make it.
_________________
All watched over by machines of loving grace |
|
|
|
|
stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
|
| Post subject: | |
|
it's been a real flip. It seems not long ago that the Senate was full of independents and minor parties, now it's pretty much just Lib/Nat, Lab and Greens. Lambie and Roberts are rendered irrelevant as Labor will be able to pass anything it wants provided the Greens support it.
_________________
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
|
|
|
|
stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
|
| Post subject: | |
|
At the moment, the AEC Tally room has (based on who's leading)
ALP 76
Lib/Nat 58
Independent 10
Greens 1
Katter 1
Centre Alliance 1
There's also 4 which has TCP unavailable, McNamara, Melbourne, Richmond and maranoa
_________________
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
|
|
|
|
David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| stui magpie wrote: | | it's been a real flip. It seems not long ago that the Senate was full of independents and minor parties, now it's pretty much just Lib/Nat, Lab and Greens. Lambie and Roberts are rendered irrelevant as Labor will be able to pass anything it wants provided the Greens support it. |
The voting reforms in 2016 had a big impact on that, though there will still be a substantial crossbench in the upper house – looks like it’ll be 19 in total (12 Greens, 2 One Nation, 2 Jacqui Lambie Network, David Pocock and then most likely a third One Nation senator in SA and a United Australia Party senator in Victoria), or exactly one quarter of the chamber. What’s probable is that Pocock and Lambie will have a huge say in what happens in the senate, as it looks like Labor will need one of those along with the Greens to get legislation passed.
_________________
All watched over by machines of loving grace |
|
|
|
|
David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
|
| Post subject: | |
|
The prospective Victorian UAP senator looks like an interesting character, by the way:
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/clive-palmer-candidate-could-be-senator-for-victoria-thanks-to-liberal-preferences-20220522-p5anhw.html
| Quote: | During the campaign, Ralph Babet campaigned against vaccine mandates and spoke about the “ever-growing power and authoritarianism of the government”, blaming the mainstream media and major parties for causing division.
On Christmas Day in 2014, he pleaded not guilty to a charge of criminal damage, which was withdrawn in 2015, and in 2017, a criminal damage charge was recorded with no conviction because Babet accepted responsibility without pleading guilty. He pleaded guilty to unlawful assault in 2018 before a magistrate dismissed the charge when he complied with an undertaking. |
_________________
All watched over by machines of loving grace |
|
|
|
|
stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
|
| Post subject: | |
|
His head looks like someone painted eyes on an egg.
Apparently a few of Clives candidates were familiar with the inside of a courtroom, there's an article in the Australian that I can't read.
_________________
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
|
|
|
|
David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
|
| Post subject: | |
|
Palmer reminds me of Trump a lot on that front – promises to only surround himself with the best and brightest, and ends up trailed by a rogues' gallery of cranks and grifters. Thankfully it seems to have been much less successful here.
_________________
All watched over by machines of loving grace |
|
|
|
|
David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
|
| Post subject: | |
|
The Liberals have won Bass, Menzies and Moore, apparently, and seem to have moved ahead in Deakin but fallen behind in Gilmore, while Bennelong has been called for Labor – the Lord giveth, and the Lord taketh away …
Confirmed
Labor 73
Coalition 55
Independent 10
Greens 3
Centre Alliance 1
Katter's Australian Party 1
-----------------------------
Labor need 3 more for a majority now. Here are the 8 seats that are still yet to be decided:
Seats in doubt
Labor vs Greens (Labor leading): Macnamara, Richmond
Labor vs Greens (Greens leading): Brisbane
Labor vs Liberals (Labor leading): Gilmore, Lyons
Labor vs Liberals (Liberals leading): Deakin, Sturt
Nationals vs Independent (Nationals leading): Cowper
----------------------------
Labor's most likely wins from here (in order, from top to bottom):
Richmond (all but certain)
Lyons (likely)
Macnamara (likely)
Gilmore (50/50)
Brisbane (50/50)
Deakin (leaning Liberal)
Sturt (leaning Liberal)
Cowper is a bit of a red herring here as it doesn't affect Labor's majority/minority status regardless of outcome.
_________________
All watched over by machines of loving grace |
|
|
|
|
stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
|
| Post subject: | |
|
So a Minority Government is still well and truly on the cards.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but if a party gets the neat 76 to govern in their own right, they then have to give up one of those to be speaker which means they still need at least 1 crossbenchers support to get anything through the house of Reps?
_________________
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
|
|
|
|
David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
|
| Post subject: | |
|
On the second question, no, I don't believe so – the speaker still has the casting vote in that scenario, and I don't think there's any precedent to suggest that they would decline to use it.
_________________
All watched over by machines of loving grace |
|
|
|
|
stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
|
| Post subject: | |
|
Ah, Ok cheers. I didn't realise they had a casting vote.
_________________
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
|
|
|
|
eddiesmith 
Lets get ready to Rumble
Joined: 23 Nov 2004
Location: Lexus Centre
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| But it leaves them vulnerable if someone is absent or their ICAC isn’t toothless and they start dropping 😉 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You cannot attach files in this forum
You cannot download files in this forum
|
|
The Rules
FAQ
Usergroups
Calendar
Search
Log in
Register
