Russian invasion of Ukraine

[think positive]

[Jezza]

^ Not my idea, TP. According to some intelligence agencies, they think Putin wants to split it in half.

If Ukraine is in a weakened position at the negotiation table, they may agree to relinquish it to save any further cost and damage if Russia stops attacking them.

I wouldn't be surprised at the end of this if Crimea and Eastern Ukraine is officially recognised as being a part of the Russian Federation.

[stui magpie]

Looks like Putin is withdrawing his troops back to the eastern fringe after destroying large parts of the country. Ukraine is forcing them back.

Buildings destroyed, people killed, huge numbers fleeing the country as refugees. WTF for? Some old madmans twisted dreams?

The Ukraine President has done a great job, the only thing I'd give Putin is a bullet in the head. While they've got them backing up I hope they don't agree to partition the country or give up any disputed lands but try to push the cnuts right out of the country.

If they need to concede those parts that have been in dispute for the past 8 years, only do it if Russia agrees to pay to rebuild all that they've destroyed.

I like Zelenskyy's offer of a referendum on the country becoming a neutral state if Russia pulls out, but Russia's arms seem to have been exposed as outdated, so provided Putin doesn't go nuclear the modern arms being gifted to the Ukraine is winning.

Interesting to read Australia is sending some Bushmaster armoured vehicles over. I didn't realise we made them here and sold them to multiple other countries, they must go OK because Zelenskyy specifically asked for some.

[pietillidie]

Just to add to the violence of it all:

[stui magpie]

Anybody got a read on where this is going or how it ends?

Millions of people displaced, hundreds if not thousands killed, towns and cities razed for no justifiable reason. It's just SFU.

[pietillidie]

^I was just thinking that it could be there are no answers beyond a pitiful clinging to delusions of self-importance as Russia loses its mystique and global villain role, becoming nothing but a maligned backward peasant outpost in the shadows of Europe and China, which keep going from strength-to-strength. The rise of green energy only hastens the decline.

Putin is increasingly cutting a pathetic, cowardly figure who has gone the way of Trump, and like that flagging geriatric loser is lashing out with violent bullying to demonstrate he's still significant.

So, I reckon it's purely an effort to maintain influence and control over a neighbour and region that's sick of the bastard. Crimea wasn't enough because no one cared, basically saying take it and eff off. So the declining loser needs to insinuate himself still further into Europe. Indeed, becoming entangled in conflict has always been his MO for convincing himself he's important.

Putin: "Look at me, leader of the Great Russian Empire. Don't forget the Cold War. I'm still important."

World: "Go eff yourself, deluded failed thug from another century. And take your fossil fuels and shove them up your ar$e. Oh, and you'll be paying for everything you break."

Of course, that doesn't send the bastard back over the border, and it makes him dangerous and unpredictable. It also doesn’t free Ukraine. But it does increase the likelihood of internal Russian dissatisfaction and has made NATO expansion a foregone conclusion.

That said, the news today is that Ukraine is bracing itself for a renewed assault as Russia amasses more troops, so the scumbag isn't going away in a hurry. The delusion is strong in this one.

[David]

Yeah, I follow this every day in the hope of some wind-down in conflict or process towards a ceasefire or Russian withdrawal. But there seems to be no end in sight.

[swoop42]

[David]

I must say that Western media coverage of Ukraine can be somewhat eyebrow-raising at times. The recent arrest of Ukrainian opposition leader Viktor Medvedchuk for treason seems like a pretty clear instance of political imprisonment, but look at how this article frames things:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/12/ukraine-arrest-putin-ally-viktor-medvedchuk

And compare with coverage of the arrest of prominent Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny. Whose quotes are given prominence? What gets mentioned, and what doesn't?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/17/alexei-navalny-detained-at-airport-on-return-to-russia

I'm not saying the two cases are identical: it may well be true that Navalny is innocent of the embezzlement charges against him – though, sadly, what often happens in a corrupt country like Russia is that everybody in the business world there is by necessity tainted in some way, and evidence of that corruption is then selectively used to persecute high-profile dissidents – and it may equally be true that Medvedchuk is guilty of passing on state secrets, though you'd have to be very naive to presume that there aren't self-serving domestic political manoeuvres from Zelenskyy at play. Either way, it's very hard to tell where the truth lies in either case from our vantage point.

I think it's always useful to point these things out without any agenda, because we should all be aware of how news reportage reflects and shapes opinions. Comparing articles like these side by side would be a great case study for, say, a media studies class, and I can only say I hope such things are being taught at the moment. It's important to be alert to issues like bias and selective facts so that we can avoid falling into the twin traps of being too credulous or too cynical (in the latter case, dismissing everything that doesn't align with a preordained viewpoint as "fake news" instead of learning to consume all media critically).

[pietillidie]

^No one is going to parse it to that precision, though, not least because the wanton killing and destruction that dwarfs those considerations is consciously designed to thwart Ukrainian efforts to reform and move beyond the ugly, soul-destroying authoritarianism and corruption championed by Putin. Escaping the Russian authoritarian sphere and reforming in line with EU expectations is Ukraine's best hope of dealing with its high levels of corruption.

The most annoying thing here is not Ukraine's foibles, but the fact that our own scumbags are never ever held to account for their war crimes (so Iraq), undermining our efforts in genuine crises such as this one.

[pietillidie]

Here you go, David; the NYTimes reporting on Ukraine's possible use of cluster munitions :

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/18/world/europe/ukraine-forces-cluster-munitions.html

Not that many tears will be shed for an invading army.

[David]

[pietillidie]

^I don't disagree in theory, I'm just not sure if it can be done in any meaningful way in a clear invasion scenario.

That aside, is it time to escalate support given news today of a more concerted Russian front? Being cautious initially is one thing, but there is an argument that the degree of uncertainty needs to be dialled up considerably now, otherwise the ba$tard will press on in full confidence he will get what he wants regardless. That's neither a good outcome, nor a good signal to be sending generally.

[David]

The trick, I think, is to be certain about specific things – i.e. the importance of supporting Ukraine to resist the invasion, and to bring an end to the conflict (that isn't on Putin's terms) as soon as possible. That's the ball we need to keep our eyes on, and a position that we can confidently assert, even if other areas remain grey. It need not be a package deal with other positions regarding Zelenskyy's governance or internal Ukrainian political problems.

Perhaps all this goes without saying and external noise is inevitable in any case, but I do think that both moral urgency in relation to the biggest thing currently at stake and an informed critical position on broader issues are compatible, and ideally should be cultivated simultaneously where possible.

[stui magpie]

Relevant to how Russia operates.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-21/russia-and-japan-at-odds-over-ukraine-and-islands/100999154