Coronavirus 5 - Last Blood

[stui magpie]

Case numbers are irrelevant, it's hospitalisations and deaths which count, and luckily they both seem in freefall too.

[Dave The Man]

[watt price tully]

It’s older people, people with disabilities and immuno-compromised that will suffer the most. It is simply populist and political not based on medical advice.

[stui magpie]

[think positive]

so yeah, when your sick as a dog, its a piece of cake! not!

just got back from the supermarket, (ive been sniffly for a few days, its finally hit, but nope, not covid!! 3 tests, all neg! i reckon ive done at least 10 tests and had 4 pro ones all up!!) lots of older people wearing masks, smart move. i do if its crowded, or im already under the weather and i still sanitise my trolley!

i reckon masks are a no brainer, especially now it spring, everyone gets sick, all the shit in the air and people coming out of hibernation.

and reducing isolation is crazy, let alone abolishing it! its not over, people are still dying!just waiting for the next wave! yes we are negotiating it better, but going all out is nuts!

[stui magpie]

The current Pandemic orders expire 12 October.

What's the odds that withe the election looming, they aren't renewed?

[eddiesmith]

[stui magpie]

[What'sinaname]

[Skids]

All testing for FIFO workers finally over as of today.
No more getting to the airport 2hrs before the flight.

[eddiesmith]

[What'sinaname]

Good to see Pfizer and everyone lied about vaccination stopping the spread.

[Jezza]

^ There was no scientific basis for vaccine passports.

People who supported such policies will look back on it with embarrassment.

[What'sinaname]

^ the biggest issue is how easily influenced the entire medical industry is by big pharma. Either easy influenced, or gullible, or equally complicit.

[pietillidie]

(I post this just to join the dots between Covid and the economic discussion.)

Australia has run a very successful Pandemic response overall. Basically, you got the balance between risk management and outcomes better than virtually everyone else.

Looking at the numbers, you'd say this recent policy shift could've been made mid-year with a stabilisation of 50,000 cases and under 50 deaths, but I'm guessing winter fears distorted the decision, with the rise in deaths in August reinforcing that conservative approach.

And I can't see anything in the Australian GDP numbers to suggest otherwise than an admirable performance, either. From what I can tell Australia did extremely well in terms of death mitigation and GDP performance. Not only did you value people's lives more, you actually paid less for that vastly superior ethical stance; basically, you got far fewer deaths at a far lower cost to GDP compared to the vast majority of countries.

In addition, if long Covid is costing what we think it is, that performance is going to look even better because long Covid costs are still being realised. On top of that, there seems to be a major underestimation of the effect of Covid on older workers and its flow-on effect on the hiring squeeze. In other words, the hiring difficulties would be far worse without the confidence older workers have in Australian policy.

(On the costs of long Covid see for example this piece on the US: https://www.brookings.edu/research/new-data-shows-long-covid-is-keeping-as-many-as-4-million-people-out-of-work/ )

So, quibbles aside, overall Australia's approach was incredibly effective and super smart. If you were working at a top investment bank and pulled that off, you'd be earning a huge bonus for work well done.

Now, you can't do much about China and Russia rubbing salt into the Covid wound and dragging the world down (Russia willfully at the hand of a psychopath, China historically at the hand of developing out of a dated authoritarian culture), so nothing's going to halt 2023 being tough.

But here's our challenge while waiting for China to sort itself out (and the world to start communicating with them again), and that fruitcake in Russia to be dealt with:

(1) Dealing with productivity, which is the secular (or long-term) trend which is making most advanced economies weak and precedes the GFC and Covid (masked and in fact worsened in Australia by the mining boom);

(2) Dealing with energy dependency on the OPEC + Russian cartel while getting on top of emissions at the same time. Green energy, probably underwritten by a piecemeal mix and eventually by nuclear fusion (much more preferable to old nuclear) looks the way out. The cost of global warming is massive, like so massive everyone is scared to calculate it by the time you look at what it's done to insurance, investment and agriculture (adding in turn to the supply and inflation problem);

(3) Talking and coordinating productively with China again; and

(4) Giving hope and incentive to younger generations, who need an equivalent focal point to help direct and motivate them in the same way that home ownership and solid careers did for baby boomers. If that's not dealt with, the next generation/s will be a mess.

My greatest fear is politics as usual, which involves angry mindless mobs teaming up with policy-distorting psychopaths and malignant narcissists, wrecking things and blocking serious policy and risk management as they always do. (The US finally dealing with Trump could be symbolically important, potentially enabling everyone to step back from the culture wars and mend bridges).

There are solutions and there are ways to hedge against risk, but countries like the US and UK just can't get stable enough to implement them, and end acting as global coc% blockers to much the same extent as their arch-enemy, Putin.

In the end Covid policy, like any policy, is about that intelligent balance between productivity, risk management and the greater good. Australia did very well, which helps make up for squandering the benefits of the boom at the expense of younger generations.