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Piesnchess
piesnchess
Joined: 09 Jun 2008
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| lazzadesilva wrote: | | pietillidie wrote: | | The point being, everything needs to be assessed in context. Injuries were always going to determine our fate because our list is still thin. We'll be smarter next time, pay their tactics more heed, and run over them if our injury list is favourable later in the year. |
I beg to differ. It could be said that considering the amount of injuries we had over recent years, our current injury list was bad but nowhere near as bad. Same with our list, it’s meant to be the strongest since the tragic debacle of the Guy stuff ups. If you are correct, then it’s a terrible concern about our thin list in the second half of the season. Everyone aims to be smarter after a loss but it doesn’t always work out that way. I’m confident that Collingwood will beat teams around and below them but I still worry about our capacity to win games against quality opposition around and above us. It’s a hit or miss state of affairs rather than a confidant no holds barred approach from a team deemed worthy of winning the flag this year. Believe me, this game will be looked back on as the turning point when we missed the chance to assert our dominance over similar teams, which is crucial for flag aspirations this year. The fact remains that Collingwood will have a very good season but will fall short of ultimate success. If they then get it right with not having as thin a list and recruiting for the key positions that other posters have already mentioned, it will make all the difference for them to go to that critical next step. They will go very close this year but for me, no cigar till next season. |
Lazza bit too pessimistic mate, as I said in m y above post we had six absolute stars out against the Deees, real play makers. Not just de goey but elliott, sidey, howe, mc Stay, etc, these players are vital too us. I reckon we do have great depth too now, Kruger, Bianco, Carmichael, Harrison looks a good find, too. Mate we only lost to the Lions up at the Gabbatoir , we had no rucks that night, none, crippled, and nobody wins up there, We fell short to the Dees by a mere four points, they threw th sink at us, dominated at times, but still, only won by less than a kick. At our best we can beat anyone, on the day, we did beat the Cats, Dons, we smashed Port by 12 goals, beat the Crows over there, beat Blues, swans, Tigers, to say we havent beaten anyone of note, is just silly. Im very relaxed and confident where we sit, and if we finish top two, we will give the flag one hell of a shake, heck we nearly made the big show last season, failed by one point up at Swans ground, and umpires robbed us in the QF v the Cats. Put it this way, Melb beat us at their best, with near their best team, on the park, we had nowhere near our beat team, they outplayed us, but only just fell in, by a kick, we are a strong side mate, under a great Coach. 
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inxs88
Joined: 17 Aug 2014
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Lets beat the arrogance out of that poor winning front runner Petracca next time!!!
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I love the Pies, hate Carlscum |
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Raw Hammer
Joined: 11 Sep 2008
Location: The Gutter
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| What'sinaname wrote: | Those who said Melbourne was a six goal better team, you were close. AFLxScore expected score:
MELB actual 66 versus expected 87
COLL actual 62 versus expected 59
If players scored as expected from where they kicked the ball, Melbourne would have scored 87 vs Collingwood 59. |
The flaw in this is that multiple shots after behinds due to the ball being locked in D50 likely won’t result is as many shots once the ball is back in the centre. Three missed shots in a row in quick succession may look like expected goals to the statistician, but in reality if one of those is nailed the the other one or two shots are lost to the centre square restart. And yesterday, there weren’t many scores from centre square breaks.
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Pete 70
Joined: 23 Jun 2008
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Great posts Piesnchess (and Lazza you are still one of my favourite posters). Came away from the game feeling a tad frustrated but more upbeat about the second half of the season than I’ve felt before. Well put RawHammer as well.
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Pies2016
Joined: 12 Sep 2014
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| Raw Hammer wrote: | | What'sinaname wrote: | Those who said Melbourne was a six goal better team, you were close. AFLxScore expected score:
MELB actual 66 versus expected 87
COLL actual 62 versus expected 59
If players scored as expected from where they kicked the ball, Melbourne would have scored 87 vs Collingwood 59. |
The flaw in this is that multiple shots after behinds due to the ball being locked in D50 likely won’t result is as many shots once the ball is back in the centre. Three missed shots in a row in quick succession may look like expected goals to the statistician, but in reality if one of those is nailed the the other one or two shots are lost to the centre square restart. And yesterday, there weren’t many scores from centre square breaks. |
They definitely don’t / can’t factor in sliding doors moments had the goals been given but how often does Fritsch miss. He’s easily the best on goal in the AFL and he kicked 3.3. It also shows how important he is to them as their primary scorer. They don’t have much of a forward line and as much we need to score more, we also need to find someone who can beat Fritsch next time around. He would normally have turned that into a 5. 1 effort. Stop him and there scoring dries right up against us. |
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piffdog
Joined: 18 Jun 2021
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| lazzadesilva wrote: | | They will go very close this year but for me, no cigar till next season. |
Not sure why we will be closer to winning it next year than this year... Cant see us recruiting "the missing piece' in the offseason and I keep looking around the comp at teams with a ripe crop of 23-26 year olds who will just keep coming.
I'm not being naively optimistic - its a tough comp and I am certainly not saying we have one hand on the cup. I also think its very unlikely that the eventual winner will "dominate" those other top teams. Its just too even a comp. Remember we pushed last year's grand finalists to within a collective 7 points.
I would say, however, that we should be hoping to dominate the lower teams a little more than we have. I'd like to be able to get 120 points up on Hawthorn by half time or roll the Eagles by 100 points... Something about our game plan just doesn't seem to allow that - and maybe to your point that will be our eventual weakness...? The future isn't written and I am sure the club are plotting for the here and now.
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It's never as good/nor bad as it seems...
Last edited by piffdog on Wed Jun 14, 2023 9:24 am; edited 1 time in total |
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piffdog
Joined: 18 Jun 2021
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| Raw Hammer wrote: | | What'sinaname wrote: | Those who said Melbourne was a six goal better team, you were close. AFLxScore expected score:
MELB actual 66 versus expected 87
COLL actual 62 versus expected 59
If players scored as expected from where they kicked the ball, Melbourne would have scored 87 vs Collingwood 59. |
The flaw in this is that multiple shots after behinds due to the ball being locked in D50 likely won’t result is as many shots once the ball is back in the centre. Three missed shots in a row in quick succession may look like expected goals to the statistician, but in reality if one of those is nailed the the other one or two shots are lost to the centre square restart. And yesterday, there weren’t many scores from centre square breaks. |
For me the eye test would have suggested a 4-6 goal loss.
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It's never as good/nor bad as it seems... |
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pietillidie
Joined: 07 Jan 2005
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| lazzadesilva wrote: | | pietillidie wrote: | | The point being, everything needs to be assessed in context. Injuries were always going to determine our fate because our list is still thin. We'll be smarter next time, pay their tactics more heed, and run over them if our injury list is favourable later in the year. |
I beg to differ. It could be said that considering the amount of injuries we had over recent years, our current injury list was bad but nowhere near as bad. Same with our list, it’s meant to be the strongest since the tragic debacle of the Guy stuff ups. If you are correct, then it’s a terrible concern about our thin list in the second half of the season...They will go very close this year but for me, no cigar till next season. |
That sounds a lot like you're agreeing rather than begging to differ. Here's my view of the list from same post:
| pietillidie wrote: | | We're still another gun midfielder, CHF and CHB short. It won't matter in better times, but it will show playing a top team while also exhausted. |
But that doesn't mean you can't win with a thin list; however, everything has to be in your favour.
You surely don't think that was a team playing with energy. Pendles was almost comical, as if he was running through treacle. I felt sorry for the bloke as he clearly should've come off, as with Cameron, who could hardly move. Noble look like he'd run a marathon that morning. Others like Josh were known to have been ill.
Watch the game again and you'll see we were shot at half time. There was nothing left in the tank right when we'd would normally get back in the game.
Johnson, McCreery, Frampers and Cameron all struggled. The latter two need to build fitness and rhythm before playing out a big game like that, while the former two need to keep building and recognise the level gap, which is part of maturing into the game.
And you can't take Ginni, Jamie and JDG out of a side lacking a CHF and score goals against a defense playing that well.
So, it's far too premature to go overboard, especially when Melbourne played out of their skin. How many times have we won big H&A games and lost big finals to the same team over the years? Plenty.
The bye was two weeks too late, but hopefully that works better for us on the other side.
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In the end the rain comes down, washes clean the streets of a blue sky town.
Help Nick's: http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/fundraising.htm |
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BazBoy
Joined: 11 Sep 2014
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Miss ball handling and some lazy/careless kicking ending with opponents did us no favours—very out of character under Fly & Co.
Felt McCreery was not right as was the Daicos boys who were flat as game progressed
Lipinski would have felt the impact of no match play towards back end of game
Add to no Elliott,no Sidey,no JDG and missed by 4points not a glaring panic although media will unsheath their knives I’ll wager
Elliott back after bye would help —Crows won’t be easy
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I'm not arguing--just explaining why i am right |
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blybo
Joined: 28 Jul 2003
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So, after a couple of days to digest, and to ignore all the BS one eyed comments in this forum, here are my views on this match.
Dees have been poor at times this year but everything clicked for them on Monday, except their kicking at goal. They went to school on the way Brisbane beat us and did exactly the same thing defensively by closing down our space rather than retreating and guarding space.
Idiots saying we had 5 stars out to their 1 clearly don't watch much of other teams. They were also missing 3 walk up best 22 players aside from Oliver, in McDonald, Petty and Ben Brown. I think Harmes was missing as well. Ginnivan is not in our best 22, he is now a fringe player. McStay is hardly proven yet and whilst I love Elliot, he hasn't been anywhere near his '22 form this year.
I do think flu and covid did effect our team and we would be better next time around, but lets not kid our selves that Melbourne are a walk over, I firmly believe the premiership battle is down to 3, with Melbourne and Port just as likely as we are to win it. It will simply come down to September form and player availability. |
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Magpietothemax 
magpietothemax
Joined: 28 Apr 2013
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| blybo wrote: | So, after a couple of days to digest, and to ignore all the BS one eyed comments in this forum, here are my views on this match.
Dees have been poor at times this year but everything clicked for them on Monday, except their kicking at goal. They went to school on the way Brisbane beat us and did exactly the same thing defensively by closing down our space rather than retreating and guarding space.
Idiots saying we had 5 stars out to their 1 clearly don't watch much of other teams. They were also missing 3 walk up best 22 players aside from Oliver, in McDonald, Petty and Ben Brown. I think Harmes was missing as well. Ginnivan is not in our best 22, he is now a fringe player. McStay is hardly proven yet and whilst I love Elliot, he hasn't been anywhere near his '22 form this year.
I do think flu and covid did effect our team and we would be better next time around, but lets not kid our selves that Melbourne are a walk over, I firmly believe the premiership battle is down to 3, with Melbourne and Port just as likely as we are to win it. It will simply come down to September form and player availability. |
Great analysis. Interesting comments that you make about the strategies Brisbane and Melbourne might have used against us. Our coaches will need to work on how we can answer this. Every strategy used by a team must have a downside somewhere else, and that is what our coaches will need to ponder over the next two weeks. I think this loss might be extremely valuable in the sense that it highlights vulnerabilities we might have that need to be addressed if we are to have a chance at prevailing in September.
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Johnno75
Joined: 07 Oct 2010
Location: Wantirna
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Melbourne got us with their method and we will be better for seeing it. Plus the talk of Oliver and JDG cancelling each other out. Yeah that’s what it looks like but does Viney play that sort of game with Oliver in. You know what you get with JDG and no one really stepped up from us to cover him.
No real mention from media of our small forwards missing and McCreery not 100%. Steele not there and Lipinski will be a lot better in 6 weeks time.
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blybo
Joined: 28 Jul 2003
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| Magpietothemax wrote: |
Great analysis. Interesting comments that you make about the strategies Brisbane and Melbourne might have used against us. Our coaches will need to work on how we can answer this. Every strategy used by a team must have a downside somewhere else, and that is what our coaches will need to ponder over the next two weeks. I think this loss might be extremely valuable in the sense that it highlights vulnerabilities we might have that need to be addressed if we are to have a chance at prevailing in September. |
I think this has been fairly widely reported by analysts so i can't take any credit. We also try to always outnumber at the contest and push our back 6 very high. Sometimes we have our half back line at half forward to close down exits from our F50. It's a high risk high reward tactic but good teams can get through us and get easy out the back goals or huge amounts of space in their F50.
And yes, Harmes was out suspended for the Dees, so they were short on talent too, but I think they have a bit more depth than we do. Any number of the guys from the VFL that people here say we have to get games into look like deers stuck in headlights. Reef looks too scared to make a mistake so takes easy options when not in scoring positions. |
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Boot
Joined: 22 Feb 2013
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This was always going to be a tough game and despite an outstanding start of 3 goals to 0, for most of the match Melbourne had the edge over the Pies.
Credit to Jack Crisp, Tom Mitchell and Isaac Quaynor for holding their end of the form line together.
Serious questions to Ash Johnson who had a shocker of a game failing to be able to control the ball a number of times that he would be expected to. I assume the club has a good understanding if there was any redeeming excuses for Ash on the day e.g. sickness or injury but he is a bit like "the little girl with the curl" - either very good or very bad. Such inconsistency can't be carried through into the finals when every player needs to contribute to overcoming the good opposition clubs. I suspect that Johnson will loose his spot to Dan McStay once he is back fit, but I hope he can rediscover his form as he can be a great X-Factor that adds to the teams goal kicking potential.
WHE was under an injury cloud coming into the game and for the life of me I can't understand why he would be picked if not better than 95% fit when the likes of Carmichael, Bianco and Fin Macrae are banging the door down with good form in the VFL? I thought WHE had a bad game and that set shot miss in the last quarter was a shocker. To his defense he did get a hard hit that would have knocked him around earlier in the game. He will appreciate the break of the bye but he needs to lift over the next couple of weeks else DeGoey and Sidebottom's return to the team will be at h is expense.
Depth is necessary in clubs that win premierships and I'd be trying to get games into Carmichael, Bianco, Ruscoe and Fin Macrae asap.
The young players of Harrison and McInnes had moments, Harrison took his, McInnes did not. Reef is an intriguing prospect. Playing as the 3rd tall on the full forward line seems to be a big ask on such a young player. He doesn't seem to be strong enough in the contest to play that role. I'd like to see him played further up the field to give him the opportunity to show his running power more. He has good size but he doesn't seem to process sufficient body strength to make a success of the 3 tall role atm.
I thought Harrison did enough to hold his place and for such a young player showed a bit of promise. If he can add pace and pressure to the forward line he could be a player for years to come. I think he just needs to get the experience to "stay in the game" for longer periods of time and improve his tank.
It was a rare game by Pendlebury with some poor disposal mistakes and he appeared to loose his famous vision over the ground.
This along with some uncharacteristic brain fades by Noble (forgetting to bounce the ball when running from the kick-in) and Maynard (being run down with 4 teamates around him) contributed to the loss.
11 -2 is a win -loss record all of us would have taken at the start of the year. Now the challenge remains to make the most of such a good start and finish the rest of the season with some good form leading to the finals.
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Collingwood Domination. Envy of the Nation! |
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Pies2016
Joined: 12 Sep 2014
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I remember when everyone said the Lions had picked apart the Collingwood game plan. We won the next eight straight. You can’t stay up forever, they’re humans, not robots. We get on here and because it’s a Collingwood forum after a loss, we pick apart everything we got wrong on the day. The good news is whatever we’re doing wrong, we’re not doing it wrong as often as 17 others or they would be above us. Every team has strengths and weaknesses and right now we have as many strengths as anyone and as fewer weakness as anyone in the competition. We will probably learn as much from that loss as we did the Lions loss, if not more.
I’ve said this before, we don’t have to be perfect, we just need to be better than seven other teams in Sept. |
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