Top 4 predictions (betting thread)

TaylorMade · Post by **TaylorMade** » Mon Feb 25, 2019 9:48 pm

For sure, I just dont understand why Melbourne is favoured more than us.

We beat them Queens Bday, beat them 2017 in the last round undermanned and they were playing for finals, and we let a 6 goal lead slip against them 2017 Queens Bday. We made a GF last year, they got belted by West Coast. They stuggled to beat any top 8 teams, we finished on top of them on the ladder. They swapped Hogan for a defender who had 10 goals kicked on him against Reiwolt, We got Beams. They have Lever and viney returning, We have Elliot Moore Wells Dunn Shaz and others...

Somehow they are bigger favourites than us??

K · Post by K » Mon Feb 25, 2019 9:57 pm

Well, Chris Pelchen thinks they'll be 1st in 2022. He says:

'The Dees have been "coming" for several years but a combination of shrewd trading and continued player development over the off-season has ensured they have now arrived. The addition of Gold Coast duo Steven May and Kade Kolodjashnij further strengthens their back half while allowing Tom McDonald to play as a permanent forward. Their midfield is both young and dynamic with a good balance of inside and outside players. Max Gawn, Jack Viney, Clayton Oliver, Angus Brayshaw, Christian Petracca, Christian Salem and Alex Neal-Bullen should represent the best midfield in the AFL over the next three to four years. With improved ball use and a greater sense of belief, this team has the attributes to finally win another "grand old flag".'

Of course, the song words should really be "grand old rag".

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/eve ... 50y21.html

TaylorMade · Post by **TaylorMade** » Mon Feb 25, 2019 10:02 pm

I think they are Overrated. Essendon is better. Cant wait for the season!!!

The addition of Steven May lol. I donnt understand why people rate this guy?

K · Post by K » Mon Feb 25, 2019 10:07 pm

Ev'ry heart beats true
Under red, white and blue
Where there's never a boast or brag
But should old acquaintance be forgot
Keep your eye on the grand old rag

Skids · Post by **Skids** » Mon Feb 25, 2019 10:37 pm

TaylorMade wrote:For sure, I just dont understand why Melbourne is favoured more than us.

We beat them Queens Bday, beat them 2017 in the last round undermanned and they were playing for finals, and we let a 6 goal lead slip against them 2017 Queens Bday. We made a GF last year, they got belted by West Coast. They stuggled to beat any top 8 teams, we finished on top of them on the ladder. They swapped Hogan for a defender who had 10 goals kicked on him against Reiwolt, We got Beams. They have Lever and viney returning, We have Elliot Moore Wells Dunn Shaz and others...

Somehow they are bigger favourites than us??

Weight of money. They've obviously been more heavily backed. Punters money moves the markets.

K · Post by K » Mon Feb 25, 2019 11:36 pm

Skids wrote:
TaylorMade wrote:...
Somehow they are bigger favourites than us??
Weight of money. They've obviously been more heavily backed. Punters money moves the markets.

They're not really bigger favourites (for the premiership) at the moment.
sportsbet: Rich 5.00; Coll, WC 7.00; Melb 8.00.
BetEasy: Rich 4.50; Coll, Melb, WC all 7.00.
TAB: Rich 5.00; Coll, Melb 6.00; WC 8.00.

(I don't think much of Rich, but that's another story...)

derkd · Post by **derkd** » Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:43 am

Why do people care if say Melbourne is backed in further than Collingwood. People on here forgot Collingwood always do poorly when we are favorites.

We are a club that feeds off being underrated. We struggle with favoritism.

Lol I am already worried some on here have us finishing top of the ladder in the home and away.

I dont want the giant target on our back. If we drop a few matches early in the season I will be happy. We need to build into the season slowly.

Name me a team that has won 22 straight and won the flag? Even essendon in 2000 dropped 1.

TaylorMade · Post by **TaylorMade** » Tue Feb 26, 2019 10:50 am

Skids wrote:
TaylorMade wrote:For sure, I just dont understand why Melbourne is favoured more than us.

We beat them Queens Bday, beat them 2017 in the last round undermanned and they were playing for finals, and we let a 6 goal lead slip against them 2017 Queens Bday. We made a GF last year, they got belted by West Coast. They stuggled to beat any top 8 teams, we finished on top of them on the ladder. They swapped Hogan for a defender who had 10 goals kicked on him against Reiwolt, We got Beams. They have Lever and viney returning, We have Elliot Moore Wells Dunn Shaz and others...

Somehow they are bigger favourites than us??
Weight of money. They've obviously been more heavily backed. Punters money moves the markets.

Those Melb supporters have to use the left over money from their usual snow holiday on something lol.

TaylorMade · Post by **TaylorMade** » Tue Feb 26, 2019 10:54 am

derkd wrote:Why do people care if say Melbourne is backed in further than Collingwood. People on here forgot Collingwood always do poorly when we are favorites.

We are a club that feeds off being underrated. We struggle with favoritism.

Lol I am already worried some on here have us finishing top of the ladder in the home and away.

I dont want the giant target on our back. If we drop a few matches early in the season I will be happy. We need to build into the season slowly.

Name me a team that has won 22 straight and won the flag? Even essendon in 2000 dropped 1.

I dont like cliches, because we were underdogs last year and what do we have to show for it?. Ill take the Steam Train version of Collingwood anyday. Nothing better than being no.1 and they cant do anything to stop you.

Im not worried about Melb, i just find it funny they have a shorter handicap, which Skids cleared up.

K · Post by K » Tue Feb 26, 2019 10:59 am

TaylorMade wrote:...
Im not worried about Melb, i just find it funny they have a shorter handicap, which Skids cleared up.

I think on two of the three handicap markets, they are shorter by half a game, and on the other market they are longer by half a game. Not really much difference... though maybe the question could just be changed to why they don't have a much longer handicap. That's a very optimistic question. (And whose fixture is harder?)

TaylorMade · Post by **TaylorMade** » Tue Feb 26, 2019 11:00 am

The last 2 times we won the flag, we also finished 1st on the ladder.

Finishing top 2 gives you the best chance of winning one.

K · Post by K » Tue Feb 26, 2019 11:01 am

Hmm... Don't think the first line is true.

K · Post by K » Tue Feb 26, 2019 11:03 am

derkd wrote:... Even essendon in 2000 dropped 1.

I don't think very highly of that team either! (If they were so good, why didn't they do better in '99, '01, etc.?)

TaylorMade · Post by **TaylorMade** » Tue Feb 26, 2019 11:05 am

Shit, we actually finished 2nd in 1990. I remember them saying in 2010 that the last time we won a flag we also finished 1st on the ladder.

K · Post by K » Tue Feb 26, 2019 11:50 am

Ladder Position of Collingwood:

2010: 1st, rounds 16-22.

1990: 2nd, rounds 17-22 (and 13-15; 1st for one round, 16).

1958: 2nd, rounds 16-18 (and either 2nd or 3rd every round). Only 18-round seasons?? If they had 18-round seasons then, maybe they should have 18-round seasons now.

1953: 2nd, round 18. (The last round.)

1936: 2nd, rounds 17-18.

1935: 2nd, rounds 15-18.

1917, 1919, 1927-30: 1st after H&A every year.
...

Oh, no... Let's not speak about what happened in 1915.

(Guess the worse possible scenario and that's what happened.)

https://afltables.com/afl/seas/ladders/laddersyby.html

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Top 4 predictions (betting thread)