Coronavirus 4 - Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

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Dark Beanie
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Post by Dark Beanie »

think positive wrote:
Dave The Man wrote:
think positive wrote: do you have your own Mygov account?
everyone should have their own, you can get it from there.
No I don't but looks like I need to make 1 to get the Certificate
You should get one mate, it has all your payments and entitlements from allgov departments
The DB household are all on the one Medicare card but everyone has their own myGov account. You can link Medicare, Centrelink, ATO to your myGov account.

As most things are done online, it is much easier to check everything in one spot.

The only problem I have with myGov is remembering my password :D .
If you are foolish enough to be contented, don't show it, but just grumble with the rest. - Jerome K Jerome
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Pies4shaw
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Post by Pies4shaw »

Some more detail on Victoria's new cases today (from the ABC blog:
COVID Commander Jeroen Weimar breaks down Victoria's COVID cases
183 new cases in the community today
94 of those are in the northern suburbs, of which 53 are in the Hume LGA and 17 in Moreland
50 new cases in the western suburbs, including 21 in Wyndham
11 cases in the south-east, including 4 in Casey, and 3 in Kingston
Nine cases in the inner city, eight in Melbourne's CBD and one case in the city of Yarra
Two in the eastern suburbs and two cases in the inner south
Six cases in Shepparton and finally one case in Wodonga
Eight cases still under investigation, which dropped late last night
Outside the metro area, the continuing outbreak is still in the north-east. I'm a bit surprised it hasn't taken hold in Greater Geelong, given the proximity to Wyndham and Lara (and the presence of a case or two about a ten days ago). The apparent continuing regional suppression is a positive thing.
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What'sinaname
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Post by What'sinaname »

246 new cases with more than half of those unlinked cases.

It's fair to say, there is zero chance of containment, and when Dan eases restrictions in rural Victoria, it'll be for a short time only before cases re-emerge across the State - unless rural Vic don't want to receive any deliveries from metro.
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Post by stui magpie »

At the current rate, Victoria is likely to have more daily cases than NSW in another month.
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down.
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Post by Pies4shaw »

^ Yes, possibly so, if NSW cases plateau. I have Victoria about 5 weeks behind NSW, at the moment - although I've referred to it as "4 to 6" weeks because it won't be exact, of course. NSW first topped 240 cases on 29 July, so that's still sitting in that rough window.

The "spread" of cases today will be interesting. The suggestion over the weekend from the data I saw was that a number of the "grassfire" outbreaks had been run down and stopped but that the virus had taken a serious hold in the outer-northern and outer-western suburbs. Given that the testing numbers were high and the positive result rate percentages were very low in the last two reports before this one, this latest jump is a bit surprising.
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Post by Pies4shaw »

From NSW Health's twitter:
NSW recorded 1,281 new locally acquired cases of #COVID19 in the 24 hours to 8pm last night.

....

The total number of cases in NSW since the beginning of the pandemic is 34,873.

....

Sadly, NSW Health has been notified of the deaths of five people who had COVID-19.

....

There are currently 1,071 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 177 people in intensive care, 67 of whom require ventilation.

....

Of the 1,281 locally acquired cases reported to 8pm last night, 483 are from South Western Sydney Local Health District (LHD), 348 are from Western Sydney LHD, 137 are from Sydney LHD, 118 are from South Eastern Sydney LHD, 67 are from Nepean Blue Mountains LHD, 44 are from Western NSW LHD, 22 are from Northern Sydney LHD, 21 are from Illawarra Shoalhaven LHD, eight are from Central Coast LHD, seven are in correctional settings, seven are from Far West LHD, five are from Hunter New England LHD, five are from Southern NSW LHD and nine cases are yet to be assigned to an LHD.
And from the ABC blog:
NSW cases expected to peak in the next week
Premier Gladys Berejiklian has released the modelling. It shows NSW is likely to reach a peak in COVID-19 cases "in the next week or so".

The modelling shows that within the 12 local government areas of concern, cases will continue to rise until mid-September when sufficient vaccine-acquired immunity kicks in.

But the modelling also anticipates between 2,200 and 3,900 people will require hospitalisation.

Ms Berejiklian says that means the likely peak in intensive care beds required will be about early-mid October.

"That is what the best modelling tells us at this stage but I do want to qualify that by saying that a number of variables are associated with that modelling," she said.

Ms Berejiklian says the number her team would be keeping the keenest eye on is ICU capacity.

"We have 2,000 ventilators, but when we are talking about beds, themselves with staff and experts, we have 1,550 surge capacity, which we hope we won't use, she says."
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stui magpie
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Post by stui magpie »

Here's the modelling
https://www.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/fi ... pacity.pdf

Very transparent to release that publicly.
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down.
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Post by Pies4shaw »

I see that the model was prepared using data up to 23 August, when NSW cases were at 800 a day. Otherwise, at least the transparency tells us that the people who prepared it have little understanding of the pandemic and have chosen to make grossly absurd assumptions that are not borne out by any of the data from anywhere else in the world.

Who seriously thinks the "new cases" curve is going to look like that? I'd like to see some detailed explanation, since that outcome hasn't happened in countries with way higher vaccination rates than we have. Moreover, assuming that the NSW outbreak is largely younger people for whom vaccination rates remain extremely low (eg, 83% of Victoria's new cases today were under 50), what sensible basis would there be to think that numbers will drop in that dramatic way over the next few days "when sufficient vaccine-acquired immunity kicks in"?

Meanwhile, from the ABC blog:
The breakdown of Victoria's cases today
Here's what we know about the cases today:

121 are linked
125 are still under investgiation
Breaking that down further, there are:

129 of the cases are in Melbourne's northern suburbs
71 of the cases are in the western suburbs
21 of the cases are in the south east
9 cases in the inner city and inner south
8 cases in the eastern suburbs
2 cases are in the Mornington Peninsula
1 case in greater Geelong
4 cases in Shepparton
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Post by Jezza »

Metro Melbourne LGAs (15+ fully vaccinated) - as of Monday, September 6

1. Bayside = 52.0%
2. Mornington Peninsula = 47.9%
3. Boroondara = 47.7%
4. Nillumbik = 46.9%
5. Banyule = 45.6%
6. Glen Eira = 42.6%
7. Manningham = 41.8%
8. Stonnington = 41.1%
9. Whitehorse = 40.7%
10. Kingston = 40.1%
11. Moonee Valley = 39.9%
12. Maroondah = 39.8%
13. Port Phillip = 38.8%
14. Hobsons Bay = 38.1%
15. Knox = 38.1%
16. Yarra = 37.3%
17. Monash = 37.0%
18. Yarra Ranges = 36.2%
19. Maribyrnong = 35.3%
20. Frankston = 35.3%
21. Darebin = 33.4%
22. Moreland = 32.9%
23. Cardinia = 32.3%
24. Casey = 31.7%
25. Wyndham = 30.2%
26. Whittlesea = 29.4%
27. Brimbank = 29.2%
28. Greater Dandenong = 27.9%
29. Melton = 27.4%
30. Melbourne = 26.7%
31. Hume = 26.0%

https://covidlive.com.au/report/vaccinations-by-lga/vic
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stui magpie
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Post by stui magpie »

I read somewhere in the past couple of days that Andrews is looking to link the vaccination data in the Medicare App (which is essentially linked to MyGov) with the Services Victoria app. This would enable, in theory, people to use the app as a vaccination passport, with mandatory QR code checkins at pubs etc coming up with 2 green ticks to say that they have checked in and are fully vaccinated or a checkin tick and a cross if they aren't fully vaccinated and would then be refused entry.

I can't see that happening and it shouldn't for a couple of reasons.

1. Privacy. Linking the SV App back end program with the Medicare App would give the Victorian Government and anyone they choose to share the data with (eg Police) access to people's private medical information and potentially anything in the Centrelink and ATO partitions.

2. Security. The Medicare app draws down from data in MyGov, a secure federal government website that requires duel factor authentication. Live linking the 2 would create a backdoor opening for hackers. The Federal Government should point blank refuse any such request

I'm not an IT expert but nothing the Victorian Government has done with IT inspires me with confidence.

There is a few ways to achieve the same outcome without potential for hacking or misuse.

1. Non-live data transfers. I set this kind of thing up in a past life with help from a smart IT person. Basically set up a recurring report to be generated from the federal database on only the required data (vaccinated or not), run or refreshed daily and saved to a secure server. Use a piece of middleware to regularly read that data from the secure server and upload to the Services Victoria application. Only specific data is being transferred, minimal security or privacy risk.

2. Rely on self interest. Create the ability in the SV app for people to upload a .PDF of their Digital Vaccination Certificate. Build in a verification process if you want but the number of anti vaxxers with the ability to game the system would be limited and an acceptable risk.

I'd be interested in people's thoughts' particularly those with an IT background.
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down.
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Post by think positive »

Option 2 . I agree security risk otherwise,

Needs to be bulletproof though, how quickly will fake certificates be out there?


I’d like to see a report that shows cases against the vaccination data for suburbs. Wyndham are in the shit (pardon the pun) but such low vaccination no’s
You cant fix stupid, turns out you cant quarantine it either!
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Post by Dave The Man »

I been finding Recently that Dan is very Positive about Opening Up and even thinking of Bringing thing Forward then 1st Planned
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Dave The Man
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Post by Dave The Man »

think positive wrote:Option 2 . I agree security risk otherwise,

Needs to be bulletproof though, how quickly will fake certificates be out there?


I’d like to see a report that shows cases against the vaccination data for suburbs. Wyndham are in the shit (pardon the pun) but such low vaccination no’s
I been wondering that too.


People will try and Fake the Certificates how can they tell a Fake from Real one?
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Post by stui magpie »

.PDF certificates would be easy to fake, which is why showing them doesn't work. Uploading ones that can be verified to a state gov app can work.
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down.
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