Russian invasion of Ukraine

[pietillidie]

Scholz does the admin to officially suspend Nord Stream 2 approval:

Scholz said that he has directed the Economy Ministry to withdraw a report on security of supply that is needed for the certification process of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to move forward.

“That sounds technical but it’s the necessary administrative step so that no certification of the pipeline can happen right now,” Scholz told reporters in Berlin. “Without this certification Nord Stream 2 cannot go into operation.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ine-update

[think positive]

PTID how bad can this get? Do need to worry about my English family members? Any chance of stopping this now? I just can’t believe it’s happening

[stui magpie]

Not answering for Ptiddy, but my view is this is very unlikely to escalate into fighting in other countries. Neither the US or UK are going to send in troops, at this stage. Any actual fighting should be confined to the Ukraine.

No one is suddenly going to invade France or the UK over this.

[David]

Agreed. I saw some nonsense from geopolitical mastermind Tony Abbott the other day suggesting that Poland and the Baltic states are next in line if Ukraine falls, which seems like totally baseless scaremongering to me:

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal ... 59y7j.html

The only way that this escalates beyond Russia and Ukraine is if America ends up in a direct confrontation with Russia and triggers some kind of new World War. One would hope cooler heads would prevail before anything like that becomes a viability.

[Dave The Man]

When will Putin Change Russia back to the Soviet Union?

[David]

In terms of geography, he and others in Russia might like the idea, but there's no way they're getting the Baltic states or the Caucasus back. In terms of economic systems, Putin has no interest whatsoever in resurrecting Russian communism. You have to look further back in history than that for the dreams of empire that his government aspires to.

PS: In terms of Putin's long-term ambitions, I don't know how credible the article is, but it's something I've seen shared around on social media by people who are more in the know than I am and looks like an interesting analysis:

https://akarlin.substack.com/p/regather ... sian-lands

Russia’s goals seem to be maximalist. It is possible we see the occupation of most or all of Ukraine, and the subsequent annexation of probably most or all of historical Novorossiya, forming a corridor to Transnistria; possibly Kiev and the central regions up to the Soviet borders before World War II; but perhaps not Volhynia, and probably not Galicia. It will almost certainly not involve limiting the intervention to the Donbass, because a frontal and inevitably bloody assault on the main concentration of Ukrainian military power makes no sense; instead, it will likely consist of a multi-pronged assault from Belarus to Kiev, from Belgorod to Kharkov, from Crimea to Mariupol and Dnepropetrovsk, and perhaps an amphibious assault on Odessa.

The duration of the conflict will depend on the extent to which Ukrainian soldiers are prepared to fight. In conventional models, it will take several weeks, with a few thousand Russian casualties and several 10,000’s of Ukrainian casualties. However, given those very disparities - inevitable given Russia’s vast preponderance in materiel, mobility, and technology - I suspect there’s a very good chance that the collapse might happen much quicker.

[pietillidie]

PTID how bad can this get? Do need to worry about my English family members? Any chance of stopping this now? I just can’t believe it’s happening

Yeah, as Stui said, it is unlikely to go beyond Ukraine. However, Putin is playing with fire as people are genuinely affronted on Ukraine's behalf and sick of the blackmail. Also, European solidarity on this shouldn't be underestimated. The bombing of the wrong city or Kiev could easily trigger a wider conflict.

The UK is on the other side of Europe, so it's more countries like Poland and Finland that would be feeling uncomfortable right now.

I also don't buy the 'poor Russia is worried about NATO on its doorstep' argument. No one wants anything from Russia except for them to stop causing trouble. You would gain more from invading Mars, so there is no reason at all to think this is about Russian security. More like something is happening in Russia that led to Putin's unhinged outburst and yearning for imaginary past Soviet 'glory'. I'm nervous about that because our knowledge of Russia is so bad we're surely missing something.

[David]

Isn't the Americans' ambition with Russia, much like with China, not to invade but to encircle? The US has any number of interests in the region, from oil to strategic influence over Europe and the Middle East (where both Russia and the US have been very active over the past decade). Not only do I think that long-held Russian concerns about NATO expansion are reasonable, I think it's quite fair to say that the US has been following a pretty aggressive containment policy against Russia for years now. "Causing trouble" is, as we all know by now, what America is best at.

What with all the hysteria whipped up about Russia and ramping up of sanctions during the Trump administration, I would be particularly vigilant about what the US is up to here, no matter how benign Biden's own disposition might seem. There are a lot of people behind the scenes, both in his administration and the security agencies, who have been itching for a confrontation like this.

[pietillidie]

^I don't trust the US on account of Biden needing a poll boost. But that's still too vague. From Australia you would be more likely to see the problem through US-tinted glasses, but from here it's all about the EU response, Ukraine's relationship with the EU, and its EU ambitions. Russia is losing its ability to insinuate itself to get what it wants; i.e., rob the old colonies blind. Not even its meddling in Europe via the far right is working anymore, such is the EU's unity.

Russia's declining relevance, alt energy competition, and Putin's increasingly limpid manhood are my bets. Russia's security isn't under threat; no one wants its beets, tundra and spam farms. Russia's ability to shake down its neighbours and the value of its old energy business are what's under threat.

Listen to Putin's rant again: methinks he doth protesteth too much. The question then is what the collapse of the old imperial delusions means.

[stui magpie]

From what I've read and watched, the US has no interest in direct confrontation with Russia. China is front of mind and is where their attention is. This whole mess is just a distraction

[think positive]

PTID how bad can this get? Do need to worry about my English family members? Any chance of stopping this now? I just can’t believe it’s happening

Yeah, as Stui said, it is unlikely to go beyond Ukraine. However, Putin is playing with fire as people are genuinely affronted on Ukraine's behalf and sick of the blackmail. Also, European solidarity on this shouldn't be underestimated. The bombing of the wrong city or Kiev could easily trigger a wider conflict.

The UK is on the other side of Europe, so it's more countries like Poland and Finland that would be feeling uncomfortable right now.

I also don't buy the 'poor Russia is worried about NATO on its doorstep' argument. No one wants anything from Russia except for them to stop causing trouble. You would gain more from invading Mars, so there is no reason at all to think this is about Russian security. More like something is happening in Russia that led to Putin's unhinged outburst and yearning for imaginary past Soviet 'glory'. I'm nervous about that because our knowledge of Russia is so bad we're surely missing something.

thanks mate cheers. i hope they stay away from Germany too, im really hanging out to go back there! really i hope they pack up and go home, in this day and age people should not die in conflict.

[stui magpie]

In terms of geography, he and others in Russia might like the idea, but there's no way they're getting the Baltic states or the Caucasus back. In terms of economic systems, Putin has no interest whatsoever in resurrecting Russian communism. You have to look further back in history than that for the dreams of empire that his government aspires to.

PS: In terms of Putin's long-term ambitions, I don't know how credible the article is, but it's something I've seen shared around on social media by people who are more in the know than I am and looks like an interesting analysis:

https://akarlin.substack.com/p/regather ... sian-lands

Russia’s goals seem to be maximalist. It is possible we see the occupation of most or all of Ukraine, and the subsequent annexation of probably most or all of historical Novorossiya, forming a corridor to Transnistria; possibly Kiev and the central regions up to the Soviet borders before World War II; but perhaps not Volhynia, and probably not Galicia. It will almost certainly not involve limiting the intervention to the Donbass, because a frontal and inevitably bloody assault on the main concentration of Ukrainian military power makes no sense; instead, it will likely consist of a multi-pronged assault from Belarus to Kiev, from Belgorod to Kharkov, from Crimea to Mariupol and Dnepropetrovsk, and perhaps an amphibious assault on Odessa.

The duration of the conflict will depend on the extent to which Ukrainian soldiers are prepared to fight. In conventional models, it will take several weeks, with a few thousand Russian casualties and several 10,000’s of Ukrainian casualties. However, given those very disparities - inevitable given Russia’s vast preponderance in materiel, mobility, and technology - I suspect there’s a very good chance that the collapse might happen much quicker.

Interesting article despite a lot of terms I had NFI what they meant. Premise for the reasons is certainly plausible.

[pietillidie]

[#26]

One pundit pointed out that Putin would have anticipated sanctions in his planning, so it's unlikely they'll work.

[David]

And one advantage of not being democratically elected and ruthlessly cracking down on protests is that there’s little risk posed by public discontent at home.