You’re absolutely right that it is a lottery, which poses the question why should anyone see Henry as any different at #17. He’s not getting a game in a team that’s perceived to lack quality forwards and yet we want a first rounder for a twenty year old who shows a bit but can’t cement his spot. Lipinski had a similar profile, albeit older and we got him for the low forties.Hitchhiker wrote:I think I get your point, but I'm still baffled at the value placed on draft picks in trades.
The draft is a lottery, outside the top 5 or 10 the odds of getting a 200 gamer seem slim.
Despite that, draft trades look like the recipient club believe they will be the one lucky enough to draft Fyffe at 22 or Cripps at 13. There seems to be an unrealistic value placed on the future draft pick being the one to grab you a star
Henry looks to be a good selection at 17. He has talent and has shown the ability to be along term AFL player.
If any club drafted him at 17 would they be upset? It seems absurd to me that after showing he is AFL quality, he could be valued at something less
Carlton are happy to unload Paddy Dow at the right trade but they’re not asking for pick 3 because that’s what they took him at. That was their mistake, not any club who may decide to throw Carlton a bone for Dow. Stocker was #19 and they just delisted him and he played senior footy in 2022 also. Not even Carlton were silly enough to waste their own time and ask for something similar as a trade return. You don’t get rewarded for making a blue at the draft table ( I’m not saying Henrys selection position is a mistake at all but I am saying he remains an unknown )
You need to look at Henry’s body of work as an AFL footballer after two years in an elite program and if the decision makers think he’s worth a late first rounder, then that’s fine. But you can’t automatically associate the current value of a player to his draft pick because his first club took him at that pick.
How would we feel if a club came to us and said we will give you pick 35 for Josh Daicos and you should be happy with that because he only cost us pick 55 ( from memory ) on the night. If Henry goes, I would be chuffed if we got their first rounder but I don’t see that as a likely result. I do see the likelihood of a second round pick and I also see no reason why we wouldn’t take it, after we had put up a good fight for something better of course.
We also need to remember Bruhn remains a priority signing at Geelong and I would suggest he has achieved more in footy than Henry. I’d be very confident whatever they cough up for Bruhn, it will be less for Henry. Would you hand over pick # 12 for Tanner Bruhn ? I doubt it and yet he was pick 12 and in the same draft, so by that comparison, I don’t see how Henry is worth # 17 ( unless you would hand over #12 for Bruhn ) I guess we will all know soon enough.
