What are our chances ~ 2025

[Magpie Russ]

I won't cut and paste the articles as there are rules (I think) but here are the links...

Compare the pair (depressing):
Collingwood-season-review-the-contract-calls-and-trade-questions-to-help-pies-launch-in-2025
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/ ... baa4f0be69
With the oldest playing list in the league – one that wont get much younger next year – Collingwood must now find a way to crack that premiership window back open.
The Pies have made it clear they will still search for ready-made players to drop into the team next year and push to return back up the ladder but have little to trade in this year’s draft, holding only picks 33, 48 and 51.
vs
Eight-reasons-Hawthorn-will-rise-again-in-2025
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/ ... c150df14bb
Sometimes the sting of a heartbreaking finals loss – particularly for a young group – can harden a group for the year after. Take Collingwood, for instance, as its 2022 preliminary final loss to Sydney steeled their charge towards the following year’s flag. It won’t be that easy for the Hawks. But given the side’s selected 23 on Friday night had played a collective 81 finals – the lowest by far of any of the semi-final teams – the lessons from this September can be used going forward.

*The Herald Sun subscription is someone else's... believe me... and I only read it for the Sports articles. The front page is like a trigger pin cushion.

[Presti35]

^ a lot changes in a year.

The Cats were the oldest team 2 years ago and now going to another PF. We have the best young player in the AFL and once a few retirements hit in 2025, our age will dramatically drop and then what will the media focus on? Oh thats right; how inexperienced Collingwood are. Geelong lost Selwood and Smith from their 2022 team and are about to say goodbye to Hawkins, Tuohy, Rohan and Guthrie (and possibly more), yet are still in the PF.

We're the oldest team right now. So what? We can win it in 2025. So this playing group wont win it in 2030, ok. But a few off season moves and a couple of drafts and who knows where we'll be? The media will always focus on the negative reason why a club might not do well.

[SLORT]

^And anyway, if it all turns to shit in 2026 (providing we haven't traded out first round draft picks beforehand) then we can reap the rewards for a year or two with draft picks before the Devil's hit the mainland.

[piffdog]

Geelong lost Selwood and Smith from their 2022 team and are about to say goodbye to Hawkins, Tuohy, Rohan and Guthrie (and possibly more), yet are still in the PF.

The difference between them and us though, is the influence their +30's have had on their season. Those guys you mentioned have either been injured or on the cusp of their best 22. Apart from Nick, our +30's are still in our top 10...

[Presti35]

Thats a good point piffdog. We'll see where the 30+'s finish in the Copeland.

But I still think Josh, IQ, Beau, Bobby could be considered top ten, if not close. Hopefully Ed Allan enters this conversation next year or 2026. Tew and DeMattia are unknown, but hopefully get an opportunity soon. Harrison was showing a bit before the knee injury. Im having some doubts around Ryan.

I just dont think it's all doom and gloom, but it would be nice if Horne-Francis, H Reid, Sheezel, and Sam Darcy all came across in the trade period.

[Presti35]

What are our chances for 2025? Premiers. But I said the same thing at the conclusion of the 1998 season.

[Magpie Russ]

^ a lot changes in a year.

The Cats were the oldest team 2 years ago and now going to another PF. We have the best young player in the AFL and once a few retirements hit in 2025, our age will dramatically drop and then what will the media focus on? Oh thats right; how inexperienced Collingwood are. Geelong lost Selwood and Smith from their 2022 team and are about to say goodbye to Hawkins, Tuohy, Rohan and Guthrie (and possibly more), yet are still in the PF.

We're the oldest team right now. So what? We can win it in 2025. So this playing group wont win it in 2030, ok. But a few off season moves and a couple of drafts and who knows where we'll be? The media will always focus on the negative reason why a club might not do well.

I get what you are saying... I am usually a glass half full type of pie...

To your points about Geelong, the President and Kelly made the same points. Paraphrasing "we will not bottom out, we will not go to the draft, trade and free agency! that how we will do it... look at Geelong." Kelly "put anyone in front of me and the team and 99 out of a 100 they will choose Collingwood". Kelly "if we are left without a list manager then I will do it! I know a bit about managing players." The flag was still fresh. They were handing the Cup about.

Geelong - trying to emulate the Geelong of the past 10+ years is going to take more that 'cut and paste' management. I assume they have thought this through...

• What is Collingwood's 'lifestyle' factor?
  Who has a long term vision to attract those that are attracted to the 'Collingwood lifestyle' factor? Jeremy Cameron, Dangerfield
  Who can conjure up trading magic? Jack Bowes and Pick 7
  Who will play hard ball in trades? Ollie Henry

Not to be too dramatic but we are about to fall off a Cliff (Young) age wise.
Player / Age
Scott Pendlebury / 37
Jeremy Howe / 34
Steele Sidebottom / 34
Mason Cox / 33
Jamie Elliott / 32
Brody Mihocek / 32
Tom Mitchell / 31
Will Hoskin-Elliott / 31
Jack Crisp / 31

We will not have to wait long to see how Collingwood manage this change. The list will get younger but where is quality youngsters going to come from?
We will not go to the draft but trade... how does that work when you don't have draft picks to trade?

The upheaval this year is not how you manage the change that is coming or sustain success.
Like most we have another crack at it next year. The quality of those older player is good enough - bar injuries. Geelong won then feel off the cliff and here they are again.

Just saying you are going to be like Geelong... is not going to cut it.

I am aware that we are no slouches in sustaining success. If that means making finals.
Finals 13 times in 19 years (2006-2024). 2014-2017 being the leanest period. Grand Finals 2-1-2.

BTW - Geelong's record - Finals 16 in 19 years (2006-2024), Grand Finals 4-2.
Their previous history was not so flash. Something happened from 2004 onwards.

[RudeBoy]

There's no reason we should be obsessed with trying to emulate Geelong or anyone else for that matter. Every club is unique. We are Collingwood. No other club in the country has the history, passion and loyalty of the Magpie Army. No other team plays in front of massive crowds every single week. No other club has won more Premierships, and no other club comes close to having won as many games and finals. Seriously, there may be things we need to worry about, but being a club that's attractive to prospective players is not one of them!

[SLORT]

Their previous history was not so flash. Something happened from 2004 onwards.

2006 ~ the Brian Cook led review that brought in one external consultant ~ David Parkin. Since then, they've never looked back.

[Presti35]

The list will get younger but where is quality youngsters going to come from?

This right here is the big one. We WILL get younger. But being young doesnt automatically make you an A-Grade footy player. We need to draft and trade smartly. And I think we're all feeling it a bit with the botched trade for Shultz. Boy could we use that pick ten this year!!

Not to be too dramatic but we are about to fall off a Cliff (Young) age wise.
Player / Age
Scott Pendlebury / 37
Jeremy Howe / 34
Steele Sidebottom / 34
Mason Cox / 33
Jamie Elliott / 32
Brody Mihocek / 32
Tom Mitchell / 31
Will Hoskin-Elliott / 31
Jack Crisp / 31

Pendles is irreplaceable. As was Selwood at Geelong. Nick is going to carry the mantle as the clubs best player for the next ten years, but they'll never be another Scotty P! I want him to play on for selfish reasons and beat the games-played record.

Howe's leap will never be found. But can we find someone to play the intercept role? Murphys retirement means Howe gets another year, but I'd be surprised if he goes on into 2026.

I've got Ed Allan marked as someone that could come in and take over from Sidebottom. I hope I've got this one right. Sidey will finish up in 2025.

Cox is hard to replace due to his unique playing style and height. Do we go for Elliott Himmleberg as an awkward KPP that can be thrown forward and play ruck? Or are we holding onto Condon coming through after his basketball career in the US?

Jamies X-Factor will be hard to find again. However, we have a few small forwards on the list who play the position, but perhaps not as exciting. I'm not sure if there's anyone out there thats young and gettable to come in for Elliott.

Checkers has been awesome. We just need to find the right key forward and soon. I've got my eye on the Whitlock boys in the draft. Can Eyre play this role?

Mitchell is an interesting one. He came over as a mature aged player and won a flag. Does chasing Hobbs help here? Essentially Mitchell sort of replaced Adams even though they were teammates for a year.

WHE has some level of x-factor to his game, and has been an important role player. Harry Perryman is someone that can play this role if the club decides this is the way to go.

Crisp has been some player! But is proof that gems can be found in the rookie draft and also found on other teams list of fringe players. He's a big bodied mid that can kick em from 50. He's also a big game player. I would say after Pendles, he is the toughest player to replace.

What is Collingwood's 'lifestyle' factor?
Who has a long term vision to attract those that are attracted to the 'Collingwood lifestyle' factor? Jeremy Cameron, Dangerfield
Who can conjure up trading magic? Jack Bowes and Pick 7
Who will play hard ball in trades? Ollie Henry

Our lifestyle factor has to be winning. Big crowds. Big games. Big moments. Playing alongside Nick.

The trading Geelong has done has been unreal, but the Suns gave them the biggest gift of all time with that one. We tried to do the same thing with Lukosious but I think the Suns said get stuffed. We have been up and down with trading. 1 first round pick should have been enough for Schultz with a possible upgrade of picks. The Treloar trade period was a sad time. Whoever asked for Crisp is a genius. I'm hoping we can do something this trade period to rejuvenate the list and bring some hope back to the supporters.

I also think we bent over to quickly when trading Oli. Even though we got Mitch and won a flag. I dont want a Dodoro running the show, but I think we need fairer returns when players want out. We could sure use Oli now and he would have played in the GF last year.

[SLORT]

The interesting thing about Geelong is that after the review they essentially became Carlton. A destination club with a questionable salary cap. Wonder if D.Parkin introduced them to Carlton's accountants from the 90s?

[Magpie Russ]

When Robbie Gray retired I thought there would never be another clutch mid-sized forward. Then Jamie Elliott became that guy right in front of our eyes.
I don't think I give Jamie enough love. Yes his x-factor will be hard to find.