Coughing up big leads

[K]

I posted last week, just how difficult it is protect 4 / 5 goal leads at three quarter time in the modern game. That was off the back of Collingwood almost losing that un losable game to Carlton. The next day, both the Giants and Bombers won in the final minutes after coming from well back against their opposition.
Last night, we coughed up a significant lead but this time we paid the ultimate price, just like today when both the Lions and North lost, after both being well ahead at times in the last quarter. We need to get our head around last quarter comebacks being almost a “ normal “ occurrence in the modern game. I’m not dismissing a poor result by Collingwood but it’s worth noting big comebacks are now a frequent occurrence in almost every round of footy. What we shouldn’t do, is to suddenly kid ourselves the current premiership coach can no longer coach or that he goes “ defensive “ too early ( that would involve stacking the backline and he certainly doesn’t do that )
Comebacks are that perfect storm where you have one club ( behind on scoreboard ) who will be forced into taking a risk, while the other club ( leading on scoreboard ) chooses to hold their nerve because following plan A was what gave them the lead in the first place. It’s a real balancing act.
Clubs will get bettter at establishing the tipping point for flicking the switch during a game but right now, late comebacks will continue to remain a frequent phenomenon.. Nothing wrong with being pissed off with an “ unacceptable “ loss but let’s not think it’s a disease that is only applicable to Collingwood right now.

Collingwood have given up a big lead many times this season (for all three results). Sorta , ain't it? Was a bit that media weren't talking about it more. But now there've been articles from Pie supporter P. Ryan (The Age) and J. Barnes (Hun).

Ryan's article, "Where to now for the Magpies after an attack of the Colliwobbles?", talks only about the last two games. What about v. Freo? And Hawthorn (first game, lucky to escape)? Etc., etc., etc. True, looks like we're not the only ones. (But we're reigning premiers.)

J. Barnes (Hun):

"So far in 2024, teams have led by at least 30 points on 135 occasions and lost 11 of those matches.

That is the most comebacks from five goals down or more Champion Data has in its database since 2015, surpassing the nine we saw in the 2022 campaign.
...

But even McRae was left to ponder if his team had picked the wrong method in holding on to the Friday night lead.

Several times this year Collingwood appeared to go into its shell in the final term and protect a game instead of carrying on to win it."


McFly:

"Chasing a lead versus holding on to a lead, I reckon most coaches would be sitting there going: what do we need to do different? Because not many are doing it well.

"Last week we just hung on by our fingernails and [against Sydney] we didn't. Again we will have some reflection around that."

"I think the game is harder than ever to maintain a lead.

"I'm watching last week, Essendon did the same thing to Freo.

"We had to go through it the last couple of weeks, being in a position to win the game and having to hold on.

"I am just reflecting myself now without the vision in front of me but you are thinking, maybe the method is not the right one. This is a competition thing.

"We started some stuff a couple of years ago that makes it really hard to hold a lead if you take enormous risk.

Credit to Sydney they really got their game going from contest and here we are."

[The Black and White Lion]

So what Fly is saying is when you play fearlessly and score you build confidence and momentum and unrelenting scoreboard pressure against a team that thinks they already won it, they go into their shell and get overrun.

Our method is clearly old in trying to defend that because we haven’t done it a few times now and that also build confidence for other teams who see it.

I think it’s simple and we face it head on and just continue to attack like we’re trying to win it. Don’t go defensive, don’t retreat. Take it on and don’t let the opposition get a run and momentum. The time to wind the clock down early has gone. We need to wind it up again until that 4goal lead is 3 mimutes to go

[K]

...
... articles from Pie supporter P. Ryan (The Age) and J. Barnes (Hun).

Ryan's article, "Where to now for the Magpies after an attack of the Colliwobbles?"...

P. Ryan:

They wobbled but where to now for Collingwood?

"The reigning premiers will not make finals after their pattern of not being able to defend leads finally cost them a match and a shot at finals even though other results fell their way over the weekend.

In their past three games Collingwood have been outscored 24-85 in the last quarters and even with some umpiring decisions that went against the Magpies late, a flaw has emerged.

Perhaps it’s the lack of a big-bodied midfielder with Tom Mitchell absence filled by Lachie Sullivan and then Ned Long that has resulted in their midfield being overwhelmed late in games, as Patrick Cripps and then Heeney have done.

Perhaps their game style that demands constant running is challenging to maintain for four quarters late in a season that has tested the team’s depth with injuries after running deep into finals two seasons in a row.

With more on his plate this season, McRae has been more agitated and was not at his best post-match.

The questions now are who among the group of young players in the VFL is ready to emerge and what is their list strategy to re-emerge as a force, with Daicos’ presence meaning they will have plenty to build around.

Listening to the list management expertise and experience that have been at the club through their ups and downs is essential."

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/whe ... 5k1f9.html

[Pies2016]

BUMP !
Let’s also add the Lions caving in against the Pies round 23, 2024.

[K]

McFly:

“We worked on our method this week, as we do every week, and reinforced a couple of things that really, we needed to do late in that game.

“It’s hard to hold leads in the AFL right now. We’ve experienced that for the last couple of weeks, and you never feel safe in front at the moment. As a team, you know, we’re working through what that looks like for us. We chased today and we chased well.”


Chris Fagan:

“Margins of three goals aren’t big margins in footy any more, they can be cut back pretty quickly and to Collingwood’s credit they kept going, and we just faulted right at the end.

“We’ll take some learnings from the game, obviously. The main one will be, take your opportunities in front of goal which has been a thing I’ve had to talk about too often this year I reckon and a lot of our losses it’s had something to do with it.”

[K]

M. Smith (afl.com.au):

Never surrender: Record tumbles in year of the comeback

Aug 14, 2024, 5:00pm

https://www.afl.com.au/news/1195488/com ... e-in-games

'"The 6-6-6 is a terrible rule for coaches and an amazing rule for spectators. The stand rule is a really good one to open the game up," Scott said recently.

"You have the quandary more than you ever that if you push the needle on offence, you open yourself up the other way.

"We're seeing now in today's game that if you play a really defensive game, the opposition will have their moments at some point in time.

"If you don't ride the momentum when you have it, you leave yourself vulnerable to a really good team."'

[K]

SF, 14/9/24: GWS 100-105 Bris

GWS led by 31 points when Toby kicked his 3rd goal, Q4 02:04.

"Less than an hour after Brisbane’s epic 44-point comeback, however, a speechless Green had no idea that his side had earned themselves an unwelcome distinction in the game’s record books. The Giants had just been on the wrong end of the equal second-biggest comeback win ever seen in AFL/VFL finals, behind Geelong’s recovery from a 47-point deficit in a preliminary final 93 years ago."

(SMH)

[Piesnchess]

^ Yep, dont look at us, GWS are now the Grandmasters of the Choke, coughing up big leads, in both Finals, last Qtr, faded out real badly, cost em a possible flag for sure. Dont look at us anymore now.