Nick's Collingwood Bulletin Board

Yes, looks like two camps (among the four bookies) on the Hawks.
Ladbrokes (which has too huge a profit margin anyway) seems more in the SB camp.

when it comes to bookies setting prices, TAB is usually more accurate than others.

When we beat Adelaide in Rd 4, SB was offering Coll to win GF @ 51-1. TAB was 21-1

And TAB's smaller (but still large at almost 20%) margin on the season handicap suggests to me that they know they are more accurate, so they don't have to give themselves such a big safety net. (Of course, alternatively, it could just mean the others are greedier.)

Interesting

So Sportsbet is GoldCoast +44 @ 9-1, 9-1???
Tab is GC +48 @ 15-1

So Sportsbet are under the impression that Lynch was toxic to the club. and Steven May was not valuable?

Or 2 metre Peter is going to kick 110 goals this year?

Or maybe your right K, they are greedy, trying to suck us in...

You would have to think Gold Coast are going to win 7 games this year to be at least a chance?

@ +44, winning 7 games would have tied them with Rich at 18-4.

They actually won 4 games, i thought they only won 2.

I mistook them for carlton

TaylorMade wrote:...
Or maybe your right K, they are greedy, trying to suck us in...
...

I think greed (or fear) is more likely to show in their margin than the odds for one of 18 choices. Maybe lots of money was put on GC. Maybe punters psychologically have trouble concentrating on all 18, so they end up looking mostly at only three: scratch, backmarker, and their own team.

If you think the Gods will look over our injury luck this year then our VFL team will be quite star-studded.

Sportsbet are offering AFL+VFL premiership Side by Side @ 35-1

Using their PowerPlay you can extend that to 40-1

The last 2 Melb teams to win flags both appeared in the VFL GF, so its not such a long shot


Question, how does the VFL finals system work? And where is the GF played?

If SB are offering AFL+AFLW premiership Side by Side, I suggest staying away from it. Far, far away.

Our VFL (elimination?) final performance last year was very poor. Cal B played a lone hand. Jok tried hard. The rest... Madgen was all at sea against some no-name kid.

Have you looked at the Brownlow odds? If not, guess which Pie is most favoured.

While you're thinking about that, here are the favourites.

TAB: Fyfe, Martin ($6); Dangerfield ($7); Cripps ($9); Kelly ($13).

Okay, here are the Pies (still at TAB):

Beams ($17). Did you guess that right?
Sidebottom ($26).
Treloar ($34).
Grundy ($41).
JdG ($51).
Pendlebury ($51).
Adams ($151).
Phillips ($201).
Moore ($201).
Stephenson ($501).
Cox ($501).


At those odds, my instant reaction is I'd prefer Stephenson to Cox, Moore, Phillips, Adams.

Sportsbet: Fyfe, Martin (6.00); Cripps (7.50); Dangerfield (8.00); Kelly (14.00).

Okay, their Pie slicing is different:

Sidebottom (17.00)
Beams (21.00)
Treloar (41.00)
Grundy (51.00)
JdG (51.00)
Pendlebury (67.00)
Sier (501.00)

The tail is quite different from TAB's.

BetEasy: Fyfe, Martin (7.00); Cripps , Dangerfield (7.50); Kelly (15.00).

Their Pie slicing:

Sidebottom, Beams (19.00)
Treloar (41.00)
Grundy (51.00)
JdG, Pendlebury (67.00)
Adams (126.00)
Cox, Moore (501.00)

K wrote: Season handicap:
TAB at $15 == 17% margin
sportsbet == 26% margin
BetEasy == 27% margin
Ladbrokes at $11 == 39% margin

sportsbet's Brownlow margin is about 40%.

Too high for my liking.

I've backed Coniglio @ 40/1, Treloar @ 50/1 and Cox @ 1000/1 (66/1 in the Coleman also).

Who gave 1000/1 for Cox?