Coronavirus 4 - Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

eddiesmith · Post by **eddiesmith** » Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:15 pm

It is funny after a month ago complaining about vaccinated people getting to have picnics, that's the exact same reprieve he gives vaccinated people...

What'sinaname · Post by **What'sinaname** » Fri Sep 17, 2021 7:02 am

eddiesmith wrote:
stui magpie wrote:^
and 5 fully vaccinated people can have a picnic while watching you.

Not exactly going to have many people jumping for Joy
A picnic without food or drink

It's just too funny. I am sure the remaining members of Monty Python are writing Dan's rules.

What's next? Construction sites can have 100% attendance, provided it's only one person at a time on site. But that one person can be 100% there.

Post by **Pies4shaw** » Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:04 am

https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-co ... r-cent.pdf

This doesn't criticize the Doherty modelling - it does, however, identify some critical assumptions and some points of extreme disconnect between the modelling and the "National Plan".

Post by **think positive** » Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:22 am

thats a scary read

Post by **Pies4shaw** » Fri Sep 17, 2021 9:04 am

In Victoria:

Reported yesterday: 510 new local cases and 1 new case acquired overseas (currently in HQ).
- 43,993 vaccines administered
- 55,476 test results received
- Sadly, 1 person with COVID-19 has died

Of the 510 local cases, 124 have so far been linked to known cases and outbreaks. Further case information will be provided this morning.

Post by **Pies4shaw** » Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:28 am

Post by **stui magpie** » Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:42 pm

Pies4shaw wrote:https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Doherty-modelling-Eight-facts-on-80-per-cent.pdf

This doesn't criticize the Doherty modelling - it does, however, identify some critical assumptions and some points of extreme disconnect between the modelling and the "National Plan".

I think it's fair to assume that no matter how many cases, the TTIQ capability never gets worse than Victoria's during the 2nd outbreak in 2020. How do you get worse than utterly crap?

Victoria's TTIQ capability is significantly better than it was 12 months ago, using 12 months ago as a benchmark worst case measure is smart.

Post by **Pies4shaw** » Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:42 pm

^ That's just a little partisan. The TTIQ capability in Victoria during last year's lockdown never reached the appallingly low levels that NSW reached just before NSW decided it wouldn't report the effectiveness of its TTIQ measures on a daily basis. The nub of the issue is that NSW had already dropped way below last year's relevant benchmarks, hence an assumption that no-one will drop below last year's benchmarks is inappropriate.

Post by **stui magpie** » Fri Sep 17, 2021 3:10 pm

^

I disagree, I think you're the one being partisan. It's been openly acknowledged in hindsight that the contact tracing capability in Victoria 12 months ago was abysmal, relying on pens, paper and whiteboards.

The mistakes in Hotel Quarantine last year that let the virus out were compounded by the appalling contact tracing, which enabled the Alpha virus to run wild, necessitating the hard lock down to control it.

They've learned, implemented technology and utilised decentralised resources (basically following the NSW model) and are substantially better now than then

You're making assumptions that the NSW TTIQ effectiveness dropped that low because it suits your view of the Libs. More likely that they stopped reporting it because TTIQ was no longer the focus, it was about vaccinations.

Some people will take a more conservative view, others less so. I'm on the less conservative side as I think most people are over it and want their lives back.

Post by **Pies4shaw** » Fri Sep 17, 2021 5:41 pm

No, I'm simply explaining the argument. It's not a matter of what either of us "thinks". Thus:

The effectiveness of TTIQ is hardwired to never fall below that of Melbourne in the winter of 2020. When the model is built to be indifferent to initial cases, the results and conclusions will always be indifferent to initial cases.

While the assumption that there is a floor below which TTIQ effectiveness cannot fall may have seemed reasonable in June 2021 when the Doherty modelling was being prepared, it is hard to believe that the same assumption would be made if the analysis was conducted today while NSW is reporting more than 1,000 cases per day with over 80 per cent of those cases being unlinked to a known case.

....

Figure 2 provides evidence for why the assumptions about TTIQ effectiveness used in the Doherty modelling need to be updated if it is to be used to inform a debate about reducing movement restrictions between states. It shows that the daily number of unknown cases in NSW are now much higher than the Melbourne outbreak of 2020. NSW has recently shifted how they announce case data, with data on unknown cases relegated out of the press conferences, but still available online.8 A lack of public discussion over cases with unknown linkages may make it harder for other states to assess the risks of reducing border restrictions between NSW and other jurisdictions.

So, eg, NSW makes the data available - but, so far as I can see, only in downloadable datasets, links to which are here: https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/find-th ... t-covid-19

Those are data-dumps of raw data. To get anything meaningful from them, you need to put them into a spreadsheet and process them. Having done that for the relevant dataset, I can tell you, for example, that today's reporting (that is, of data for 16 September) included 1,057 locally acquired "unlinked" cases. It's not a question of how "good" or "bad" particular strategies are or were - it is just about the numerical outcomes. Victoria never had 1,057 locally acquired "unlinked" cases to report in a day because it never reported that many cases in a day. Victoria never had an accumulated total of more than about 4,370 "unlinked" cases at any time. The figure in NSW today is 28,764. The TTIQ assumptions adopted in June are now demonstrably wrong.

Post by **stui magpie** » Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:42 pm

Fair enough, I've done enough Excel work this week I CBF doing more, but these people seem like OzSage sympathisers to me, determined to paint worst case scenarios as likely.

Post by **Pies4shaw** » Fri Sep 17, 2021 7:16 pm

I think they're just pointing out the limitations of the Doherty modelling. It's fair enough to do so - and they did it very carefully and respectfully. Doherty Institute doesn't get special, untouchable modelling status because they happened to win the tender for that piece of work.

Post by **stui magpie** » Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:12 pm

They're pointing out their opinions essentially. The Doherty Institute modelling is fallible, so are they. People will believe whatever bit of data or research that supports their pre existing beliefs.

What'sinaname · Post by **What'sinaname** » Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:14 pm

How is Geelong not in lockdown? 10 times the exposure sites of the entire Mornington Peninsula.

Dave The Man · Post by **Dave The Man** » Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:24 pm

think positive wrote:thats a scary read

Pretty Much unless we are all Vaccinated Covid is going no where and could easily get lot worse after Opening

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Coronavirus 4 - Kingdom of the Crystal Skull