Nick's Collingwood Bulletin Board

K wrote:

K wrote:

K wrote:The [TAB] handicaps are:
Ade +6, Bris +14, Carl +32, Coll +4, Ess +6, Fre +20, Geel +8, Haw +10, NM +10, Mel +2, Port +14, Rich +0, StK +24, Syd +10, WC +4, WB +20, GC +48, GWS +10

...
Woo. A change already. All still at 15.00 (& handicaps the same), except Rich, which is now 12.00. Maybe someone loaded up on Rich (the fool ).

A bit strange. They're all back at 15.00 again now, as if the Rich shift never happened.

Not really, that market will continue to fluctuate, as all markets do. Somebody placed a sizable sum on at $15, they wind them in to $12, nobody bets on them at that, other teams are backed and they wind the price back out again.

Sportsbet now have 93 different markets on the Pies v cats game, the WATAB have 12, Ladbrokes haven't framed any more as yet.

The WATAB have an interesting market. Who will make the AA team.
Grundy $1.60
Sidey $2.50
Beams$2.75
JDG $4.20
Treloar $5
Howe $5.50
Pendles $7.50
Darcy $11
Tay $26

Skids wrote:...
Somebody placed a sizable sum on at $15, they wind them in to $12, nobody bets on them at that, other teams are backed and they wind the price back out again.
...

Yes, though I didn't write it, I assumed that this is what happened: a single very large outlay and then it just became diluted by everyone else. But what I did expect was that once the eggs became scrambled they'd remain scrambled, even if the exact scrambling changed. Just like sb and BetEasy (which were already scrambled when I first saw them -- I don't know if they ever started off unscrambled).

Nah, it's constantly changing.
You see it heaps on the horses. A horse might open at 20/1, get backed in to 12/1, then 10/1, then you'll see it drift out if other horses are backed, could go back out to 20/1... 33/, whatever the money says.

The bookies keep changing the odds, so, no matter what the outcome, they can't lose.

These explain bookies market %...

https://www.bettingexpert.com/academy/b ... s-the-odds

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-art ... GZ3NN9FVWT

https://www.onlinebetting.org.uk/bettin ... money.html

By "unscrambled" I just meant exactly the same neat number for every "horse". (Of course, it started off that way, because the bookies designed the handicaps for that outcome, just like the line in H2H.) And "scrambled", not that (even if it keeps changing, as expected)...


Ladbroke's (season handicap) odds have changed now:

Bris. (+26) $7, Ade (+12) $9, WB (+26) $13, Rich $15, Port (+16) $17.
The rest still $11.

(They are keeping the handicaps fixed.)


Their punters don't fancy Port or Rich.

Ladbrokes have markets for all rounds;

$1.60 v Cats ($2.35)
$2.55 v Rich ($1.48 )
$1.62 v WCE ($2.30)
$1.20 v Dogs ($4.25)
$1.45 v Bris ($2.65)
$1.67 v Ess ($2.12)
$1.40 v port ($2.80)
$1.16 v Carl ($4.75)
$1.12 v SK ($5.60)
$1.95 v Syd ($1.80)
$1.22 v Freo ($4)
$1.80 v Melb ($1.95)
$1.33 v Dogs ($3.15)
$1.40 v Roos ($2.80)
$1.45 v Hawks ($2.65)
$2.50 v WCE ($1.50)
$2.05 v Gws ($1.75)
$2.25 v rich ($1.60)
Sus v GC ($15)
$1.80 v Melb ($1.95)
$2.12 v Adel ($1.67)
$1.57 v ess ($2.30)

Favourites in 16 games.

27592/1 for an all up, undefeated season

K wrote:BetEasy has a handicap market...
...
West Coast +4.0 15.00
Melbourne +4.0 13.00
Collingwood +6.0 12.00
...
Brisbane +22.0 12.00
...

Some of the changes in BetEasy's (season handicap) odds:

Rich unchanged at $17; WC & Melb (+4) out to $21; Coll (+6) in to $8.50; Bris (+22) in to $7.50; ...

(They are keeping the handicaps fixed.)

Skids wrote:Ladbrokes have markets for all rounds;

$1.60 v Cats ($2.35)
$2.55 v Rich ($1.48 )
$1.62 v WCE ($2.30)
$1.20 v Dogs ($4.25)
$1.45 v Bris ($2.65)
$1.67 v Ess ($2.12)
$1.40 v port ($2.80)
$1.16 v Carl ($4.75)
$1.12 v SK ($5.60)
$1.95 v Syd ($1.80)
$1.22 v Freo ($4)
$1.80 v Melb ($1.95)
$1.33 v Dogs ($3.15)
$1.40 v Roos ($2.80)
$1.45 v Hawks ($2.65)
$2.50 v WCE ($1.50)
$2.05 v Gws ($1.75)
$2.25 v rich ($1.60)
Sus v GC ($15)
$1.80 v Melb ($1.95)
$2.12 v Adel ($1.67)
$1.57 v ess ($2.30)

Favourites in 16 games.

27592/1 for an all up, undefeated season

Based on Ladbrokes' odds and assuming the favourite wins every match, we're projected to finish 3rd or 4th.

Ladder projection according to Ladbrokes:
- Richmond (1st)
- Adelaide (2nd)
- Collingwood (3rd-4th)
- West Coast (3rd-4th)
- Geelong (5th)
- Sydney (6th-7th)
- Melbourne (6th-7th)
- Essendon (8th)
- GWS (9th)
- Port Adelaide (10th)
- Hawthorn (11th)
- North Melbourne (12th)
- Fremantle (13th)
- Western Bulldogs (14th)
- Brisbane (15th)
- St Kilda (16th)
- Carlton (17th)
- Gold Coast (18th)

Jezza, that's interesting, because it's a bit different from their ladder projection implied by their handicap market. Well... the biggest difference looks like Adelaide, with a number of other teams moving two or three places. Looking at it more, I see the bottom half is the same, so the shuffling is in positions 2 to 9 only.

K wrote:...
Ladbroke's [ladder prediction]:
Rich
Coll/WC
Melb
Ess
Ade/GWS
Geel/Syd
Port
Haw/NM
Bris/Freo/WB
StK
Carl
GC
...

(When they do their projections to come up with their handicaps, they won't just assume the favourite wins, of course. And their own game odds when they did that may have been quite different from now too.)

That's the thing... favourites don't always win.
It's why it's called gambling... and not winning

Hence the 20%, 30%, 40% margins bookies slug the punters with. It's interesting the worst margins were from different bookies for different markets. e.g. TAB's season handicap 17% is best of the bookies we've seen, but TAB's Brownlow 46% margin is worst. 46%!!

( http://magpies.net/nick/bb/viewtopic.ph ... 41#1889841 )


Back to season projections: it makes a huge difference whether a team is 51-49 game favourites or 90-10, so they can't and don't ignore that.

Richmond
Eagles
Melbourne
Collingwood
Giants
Adelaide
Port
Essendon
Geelong
Hawks
Sydney
Brisbane
Freo
North
Saints
Footscray
Gold Coast
Carlton

R1 Line

BetEasy: Richmond (-36.5); Collingwood (-8.5); Melbourne (-22.5); Adelaide (-19.5); Sydney (-8.5); West Coast (-13.5); St Kilda (-24.5); GWS (-8.5); NM/Freo (0).

sportsbet: Richmond (-36.5); Collingwood (-8.5); Melbourne (-23.5); Adelaide (-19.5); Sydney (-8.5); West Coast (-13.5); St Kilda (-24.5); GWS (-8.5); NM (-1.5).

TAB: Richmond (-36.5); Collingwood (-6.5); Melbourne (-22.5); Adelaide (-20.5); Sydney (-8.5); West Coast (-13.5); St Kilda (-24.5); GWS (-9.5); NM (-1.5).

Ladbrokes: Richmond (-36.5); Collingwood (-7.5); Melbourne (-22.5); Adelaide (-19.5); Sydney (-8.5); West Coast (-14.5); St Kilda (-24.5); GWS (-8.5); NM (-1.5).

Season handicap

BetEasy:

Richmond - Scratch 17.00
West Coast +4.0 21.00
Melbourne +4.0 21.00
Collingwood +6.0 8.50
Adelaide +8.0 9.00
Essendon +10.0 14.00
GWS +10.0 14.00
Geelong +10.0 14.00
Sydney +12.0 15.00
Port Adelaide +14.0 26.00
Hawthorn +16.0 13.00
North Melbourne +18.0 13.00
Western Bulldogs +20.0 21.00
Brisbane +22.0 7.50
Fremantle +24.0 15.00
St Kilda +26.0 19.00
Carlton +30.0 13.00
Gold Coast +46.0 14.00

sportsbet:

Richmond (+0) 15.00
Melbourne (+4) 11.00
West Coast (+4) 15.00
Collingwood (+6) 12.00
Adelaide (+8 ) 11.00
Essendon (+12) 13.00
Geelong (+12) 15.00
Greater Western Sydney (+12) 15.00
Sydney (+14) 15.00
Port Adelaide (+14) 21.00
North Melbourne (+16) 13.00
Hawthorn (+18 ) 19.00
Western Bulldogs (+20) 14.00
Brisbane (+24) 7.50
Fremantle (+24) 13.00
St Kilda (+28 ) 12.00
Carlton (+32) 12.00
Gold Coast (+44) 10.00

TAB:

Ade (+6) 11.00
Bris (+14) 15.00
Carl (+32) 15.00
Coll (+4) 11.00
Ess (+6) 15.00
Fre (+20) 17.00
Geel (+8 ) 15.00
Haw (+10) 15.00
NM (+10) 19.00
Mel (+2) 19.00
Port (+14) 15.00
Rich (+0) 13.00
StK (+24) 17.00
Syd (+10) 17.00
WC (+4) 15.00
WB (+20) 15.00
GC (+48 ) 15.00
GWS (+10) 17.00

Ladbrokes:

Adelaide (+12) 9.00
Brisbane (+26) 7.00
Carlton (+34) Collingwood (+6) Essendon (+10) Fremantle (+26)
Geelong (+14) Gold Coast (+48 ) GWS (+12)
Hawthorn (+20) Melbourne (+8 ) North Melbourne (+20) ------ all 11.00
Port Adelaide (+16) 17.00
Richmond (Scratch) 15.00
St Kilda (+30) Sydney (+14) West Coast (+6) --- all 11.00
Western Bulldogs (+26) 13.00

R2 Line

BetEasy: Richmond (-7.5); Adelaide (-1.5); Essendon (-30.5); Port (-31.5); West Coast (-26.5); Geelong (-6.5); NM (-12.5); Hawthorn (-16.5); Freo (-33.5).

sportsbet: Richmond (-5.5); Adelaide (-0.5); Essendon (-30.5); Port (-31.5); West Coast (-25.5); Geelong (-4.5); NM (-14.5); Hawthorn (-14.5); Freo (-26.5).

TAB: Richmond (-6.5); Adelaide (-1.5); Essendon (-30.5); Port (-31.5); West Coast (-25.5); Geelong (-4.5); NM (-13.5); Hawthorn (-15.5); Freo (-26.5).