Top 4 predictions (betting thread)

K · Post by K » Tue Apr 23, 2019 9:22 pm

sb's make-or-miss-8 markets:

Geelong 92% (to make 8 )
Collingwood 91%
GWS, WC 86%
Richmond 77%
Essendon 63%
Port 58%
St Kilda 54%
Brisbane, Fremantle 39%
Adelaide 38%
Hawthorn 34%
Melbourne 19%
Bulldogs 12%
Sydney 8%
NM 7%
GC 6%
Carlton 4%

(Margins about 6-8%.)

K · Post by K » Tue Apr 23, 2019 9:32 pm

Skids · Post by **Skids** » Tue Apr 23, 2019 10:01 pm

K · Post by K » Wed Apr 24, 2019 7:42 pm

R7 Line

BetEasy: Collingwood (-21.5); Melbourne (-3.5); Brisbane (-6.5); Richmond (-21.5);
West Coast (-51.5); GWS (-25.5); NM (-8.5); Geelong (-7.5); Adelaide (-18.5).

sportsbet: Collingwood (-20.5); Melbourne (-3.5); Brisbane (-8.5); Richmond (-22.5);
West Coast (-51.5); GWS (-22.5); NM (-6.5); Geelong (-9.5); Adelaide (-18.5).

R7 H2H

BetEasy: Collingwood 1.33 (3.25); Melbourne 1.78 (2.00); Brisbane 1.68 (2.15); Richmond 1.33 (3.20);
West Coast 1.03 (10.00); GWS 1.29 (3.45); NM 1.65 (2.20); Geelong 1.54 (2.37); Adelaide 1.33 (3.14).

sportsbet: Collingwood 1.32 (3.40); Melbourne 1.72 (2.04); Brisbane 1.58 (2.29); Richmond 1.26 (3.70);
West Coast 1.04 (10.00); GWS 1.28 (3.45); NM 1.65 (2.16); Geelong 1.65 (2.20); Adelaide 1.40 (2.90).

K · Post by K » Thu May 02, 2019 8:17 pm

R7 Line

BetEasy: Collingwood (-20.5); Hawthorn (-4.5); Brisbane (-17.5); Richmond (-18.5);
West Coast (-46.5); GWS (-31.5); NM (-8.5); Geelong (-14.5); Adelaide (-19.5).

sportsbet: Collingwood (-20.5); Hawthorn (-4.5); Brisbane (-17.5); Richmond (-18.5);
West Coast (-47.5); GWS (-32.5); NM (-9.5); Geelong (-14.5); Adelaide (-18.5).

TAB: Collingwood (-22.5); Hawthorn (-5.5); Brisbane (-18.5); Richmond (-19.5);
West Coast (-46.5); GWS (-32.5); NM (-8.5); Geelong (-14.5); Adelaide (-19.5).

R7 H2H

BetEasy: Collingwood 1.35 (3.25); Hawthorn 1.75 (2.08 ); Brisbane 1.40 (3.00); Richmond 1.36 (3.20);
West Coast 1.07 (8.50); GWS 1.19 (4.75); NM 1.62 (2.35); Geelong 1.54 (2.37); Adelaide 1.34 (3.30).

sportsbet: Collingwood 1.33 (3.14); Hawthorn 1.72 (2.10); Brisbane 1.38 (2.90); Richmond 1.33 (3.14);
West Coast 1.07 (7.00); GWS 1.20 (4.20); NM 1.60 (2.30); Geelong 1.48 (2.60); Adelaide 1.36 (3.05).

TAB: Collingwood 1.36 (3.30); Hawthorn 1.75 (2.15); Brisbane 1.42 (3.00); Richmond 1.36 (3.30);
West Coast 1.08 (8.50); GWS 1.22 (4.50); NM 1.65 (2.30); Geelong 1.50 (2.70); Adelaide 1.40 (3.10).

K · Post by K » Thu May 02, 2019 8:41 pm

The Pies always feel too short... but WC this week are given an 89% chance of beating GC.

Is it really that high? You'd reckon they'll win, but 89% is a big number. Maybe the line bet on GC (+47.5) is worth a flutter.

Skids · Post by **Skids** » Fri May 03, 2019 1:51 pm

K wrote:The Pies always feel too short... but WC this week are given an 89% chance of beating GC. Is it really that high? You'd reckon they'll win, but 89% is a big number. Maybe the line bet on GC (+47.5) is worth a flutter.

Definitely!

Done a multi with; GC and a few others at the line; GWS (-31.5), Lions (-18.5), Cats (-14.5), Dogs (+16.5), Dockers (+19.5) & Port (+21.5) into Hawks and Blues h/h .... $5 for $1800

$5 on Pendles @ 50/1 to kick the first goal tonight.

$20 on the Royal baby to be called Mary @ 15/1 as well

K · Post by K » Sat May 04, 2019 1:54 am

R8 Line

BetEasy: Essendon (-7.5); WB (-4.5); Collingwood (-42.5); Melbourne (-17.5);
Adelaide (-7.5); WC (-18.5); Geelong (-26.5); GWS (-5.5); Richmond (-8.5).

sportsbet: Essendon (-10.5); WB (-4.5); Collingwood (-40.5); Melbourne (-20.5);
Adelaide (-7.5); WC (-16.5); Geelong (-26.5); GWS (-6.5); Richmond (-10.5).

R8 H2H

BetEasy: Essendon 1.63 (2.25); WB 1.75 (2.05); Collingwood 1.10 (6.50); Melbourne 1.39 (2.90);
Adelaide 1.60 (2.30); WC 1.38 (3.00); Geelong 1.25 (3.80); GWS 1.68 (2.15); Richmond 1.60 (2.30).

sportsbet: Essendon 1.53 (2.39); WB 1.72 (2.13); Collingwood 1.10 (6.00); Melbourne 1.30 (3.32);
Adelaide 1.61 (2.25); WC 1.37 (2.92); Geelong 1.20 (4.25); GWS 1.65 (2.16); Richmond 1.53 (2.39).

Skids · Post by **Skids** » Sat May 04, 2019 9:22 am

Geez it's cruel sometimes.
Had a 3 leg multi last night, $50 to win $1k.

Pies 1-39 - tick
Total over 166.5 - tick
Sidey 30 disposals - he gets 29

Post by **Pies4shaw** » Sat May 04, 2019 9:28 am

Sidey just never plays well enough to meet anyone's expectations, does he?

K · Post by K » Sat May 04, 2019 8:07 pm

Skids wrote:...
Pies 1-39 - tick
Total over 166.5 - tick
Sidey 30 disposals - he gets 29

Maybe rewatch the game and count. They could have missed one.

K · Post by K » Fri May 10, 2019 1:50 am

R8 Line

BetEasy: Essendon (-11.5); WB (-7.5); Collingwood (-38.5); Melbourne (-18.5);
Adelaide (-7.5); WC (-8.5); Geelong (-23.5); GWS (-12.5); Fremantle (-7.5).

sb: Essendon (-11.5); WB (-5.5); Collingwood (-37.5); Melbourne (-18.5);
Adelaide (-6.5); WC (-7.5); Geelong (-24.5); GWS (-11.5); Fremantle (-8.5).

TAB: Essendon (-11.5); WB (-6.5); Collingwood (-38.5); Melbourne (-18.5);
Adelaide (-6.5); WC (-6.5); Geelong (-24.5); GWS (-9.5); Fremantle (-8.5).

R8 H2H

BetEasy: Essendon 1.54 (2.50); WB 1.65 (2.25); Collingwood 1.10 (7.00); Melbourne 1.38 (3.05);
Adelaide 1.65 (2.25); WC 1.62 (2.30); Geelong 1.28 (3.70); GWS 1.50 (2.60); Fremantle 1.65 (2.25).

sb: Essendon 1.51 (2.45); WB 1.61 (2.25); Collingwood 1.09 (7.00); Melbourne 1.35 (3.00);
Adelaide 1.67 (2.15); WC 1.56 (2.33); Geelong 1.26 (3.75); GWS 1.51 (2.50); Fremantle 1.60 (2.30).

TAB: Essendon 1.56 (2.50); WB 1.67 (2.25); Collingwood 1.13 (6.50); Melbourne 1.41 (3.00);
Adelaide 1.70 (2.20); WC 1.65 (2.30); Geelong 1.28 (3.80); GWS 1.56 (2.50); Fremantle 1.62 (2.30).

K · Post by K » Sat May 11, 2019 1:06 am

R9 Line

BetEasy: West Coast (-22.5); Collingwood (-34.5); Brisbane (-3.5); Geelong (-29.5);
Essendon (-16.5); NM (-4.5); Port (-30.5); Richmond (-15.5); GWS (-47.5).

sb: West Coast (-19.5); Collingwood (-33.5); Brisbane (-1.5); Geelong (-27.5);
Essendon (-16.5); NM (-4.5); Port (-32.5); Richmond (-12.5); GWS (-47.5).

R9 H2H

BetEasy: West Coast 1.31 (3.35); Collingwood 1.17 (4.85); Brisbane 1.85 (1.93); Geelong 1.21 (4.35);
Essendon 1.37 (3.00); NM 1.71 (2.10); Port 1.21 (4.25); Richmond 1.45 (2.70); GWS 1.08 (7.50).

sb: West Coast 1.30 (3.30); Collingwood 1.13 (6.05); Brisbane 1.76 (2.05); Geelong 1.22 (4.00);
Essendon 1.36 (2.99); NM 1.72 (2.10); Port 1.14 (4.80); Richmond 1.46 (2.59); GWS 1.04 (9.50).

K · Post by K » Sun May 12, 2019 4:31 am

Skids, are there markets for winning individual quarters?

They say over R1-7, the Pies are +18 in Q1 (

), but -7 in Q2 (

), and +3 in Q3, +5 in Q4.

Geelong look consistent over four quarters: +12, +6, +7, +7.

In Q2, Port is +14 and GC -15.

K · Post by K » Thu May 16, 2019 7:08 pm

R9 Line

BetEasy: West Coast (-25.5); Collingwood (-27.5); Brisbane (-4.5); Geelong (-32.5);
Essendon (-15.5); NM (-13.5); Port (-34.5); Richmond (-5.5); GWS (-36.5).

sportsbet: West Coast (-25.5); Collingwood (-29.5); Brisbane (-3.5); Geelong (-33.5);
Essendon (-16.5); NM (-13.5); Port (-35.5); Richmond (-5.5); GWS (-35.5).

TAB: West Coast (-24.5); Collingwood (-29.5); Brisbane (-3.5); Geelong (-31.5);
Essendon (-15.5); NM (-14.5); Port (-35.5); Richmond (-4.5); GWS (-36.5).

R9 H2H

BetEasy: West Coast 1.25 (4.00); Collingwood 1.22 (4.35); Brisbane 1.76 (2.07); Geelong 1.18 (5.00);
Essendon 1.44 (2.80); NM 1.52 (2.55); Port 1.17 (5.15); Richmond 1.73 (2.12); GWS 1.13 (6.00).

sportsbet: West Coast 1.25 (3.75); Collingwood 1.20 (4.25); Brisbane 1.76 (2.05); Geelong 1.17 (4.60);
Essendon 1.39 (2.85); NM 1.48 (2.54); Port 1.16 (4.80); Richmond 1.72 (2.10); GWS 1.12 (6.00).

TAB: West Coast 1.25 (4.00); Collingwood 1.22 (4.30); Brisbane 1.75 (2.10); Geelong 1.18 (4.80);
Essendon 1.44 (2.80); NM 1.50 (2.60); Port 1.16 (5.20); Richmond 1.77 (2.10); GWS 1.13 (6.00).

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Top 4 predictions (betting thread)