Posted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:05 pm
That article says to me that Beams is done... also the pay cuts make things interesting in his regard too...
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Where you getting those numbers from??Pies4shaw wrote:In what plausible sense of the word could a disease likely to kill between 50,000 and 150,000 Australians be said to be a “blessing”?
thats what you get from that post?????burnsy17 wrote:Where you getting those numbers from??Pies4shaw wrote:In what plausible sense of the word could a disease likely to kill between 50,000 and 150,000 Australians be said to be a “blessing”?
I’d be staggered if it kills 500.
I know, but surely covid-19 is not less harmful than seasonal flu, right?burnsy17 wrote:I’m talking about this Virus specifically. Not the seasonal Flu.
The former (50,000) assumes that 20% of the population is infected and the latter (150,000) assumes 60% of the population is infected. Each assumes an infection mortality rate of 0.6%. This is neither secret information, nor speculative. Obviously, I’d prefer that your 500 were correct - but the country would not be in lockdown over a disease that was expected to kill 500 Australians. A bad flu seasons kills 25 times that number, here.burnsy17 wrote:I’m talking about this Virus specifically. Not the seasonal Flu.
It's still speculative to the extent that it's a theoretical projection based on assumptions. The 'worst case' scenario is also based on no intervention i.e. no lockdown, no social distancing, no travel restrictions. Since these are already in place, those forecasts are no longer validPies4shaw wrote:The former (50,000) assumes that 20% of the population is infected and the latter (150,000) assumes 60% of the population is infected. Each assumes an infection mortality rate of 0.6%. This is neither secret information, nor speculativeburnsy17 wrote:I’m talking about this Virus specifically. Not the seasonal Flu.
Which makes comparisons to the seasonal flu invalid to....Rd10.1998_11.1#36 wrote:
It's still speculative to the extent that it's a theoretical projection based on assumptions. The 'worst case' scenario is also based on no intervention i.e. no lockdown, no social distancing, no travel restrictions. Since these are already in place, those forecasts are no longer valid
Not so sure about that but it certainly doesn't have anything to do with BeamsPebbles Rocks wrote:Which makes comparisons to the seasonal flu invalid to....