Trade Targets ~ Free Agency & MSD player movements

[Pies2016]

^^^
There’s no doubt the pending Noble trade has improved our trade and draft flexibility dramatically. Soon as I heard he had requested a trade to the Suns, I couldn’t believe our luck. Not because I don’t rate him but because the Suns have so much draft capital ( plus the Lukosuis trade to SA ) this deal will be done on our terms. Just get the Noble deal done quick and then attack any potential player trades with our revised draft hand during the second half of the trade period.
As an aside, McInnes still appears to be without a contract for 2025. You would think as every week rolls on, he becomes much more likely to be playing elsewhere next year. .

[Mr Miyagi]

After the club wanting him for years, any chance we can get Max Holmes now?

And Rayner looked good, stood up in a cutthroat final.

[Pies4shaw]

It’s an interesting conversation. The proven quality for the now vs the punt on the draft for a 10 year, 200+ game talent.
I’ve seen multiple lists and analysis showing how early picks don’t guarantee you any sort of security but i haven’t seen any lists evaluating the success or not of those big names who change clubs. For every big name who changes a club and plays in a flag, there’s possibly two who doesn’t.
I’d suggest the hit rate of the top ten in a draft probably isn’t that different to an A GRADER swapping clubs and playing in a flag.
So let’s not forget, while a mature age player may stroll into your best 23, there is also nothing tangible that suggests one player makes a significant difference between a flag or not.
Footy is the ultimate team game, so it’s also not a game that lends itself to one individual making a significant difference to a clubs fortunes.
I’m not knocking any trade for a quality player but I’d suggest history shows, that route doesn’t guarantee an improved ladder position either.

I generally agree with that. However, we traded well to round out the teams needed for our last two flags. I don't think we could have won 2010 without Jolly and the Demented Panther in the midfield as well as Leigh Brown playing the "Leigh Brown role" and it's clear that bringing in the 2023 Norm Smith Medallist, Mitchell as an upgrade on Adams and Frampton to close down and frustrate Andrews were all decisive introductions for last year (and McStay might have been, if he hadn't have been injured in the middle of a good showing in the prelim). By way of example, 9 of our last premiership team were trades or mature-age pickups from other teams (the aforementioned 3 plus WHE, Crisp, Howe, Cameron, Lipinski, Markov and Mitchell), 8 of Geelong's 2022 team were trades and Hawthorn, of course, drafted an entire championship backline for their 3-peat at a time when I had written them off because they could not defend. As we know, Melbourne bought a backline, too, when May and Lever were available.

I think trading (and free agency pick-ups) for immediate need can be a real weapon if the team is in the window - but the "trophy" player acquisitions are often best avoided (especially if the team is mid-table or lower), not least because of their cost in terms of players and draft capital. Treloar, Judd, Shiel, Beams (both ways), Hogan to Fremantle and Tim Kelly are examples of such deals creating problems for the clubs they joined and heavily favouring the team they left. By contrast, Lynch to Richmond and Cameron/Dangerfield to Geelong are trades that favoured the receiving teams. Lynch was a trade for need for a team already at the peak - Richmond had no genuine target forward and Lynch was certainly that. Dangerfield and Cameron are tricky ones to evaluate from a neutral perspective - both were fantastic acquisitions for Geelong but I remain bewildered as to how they could fit them in the salary cap. If they hadn't won in 2022, you'd probably say Geelong hadn't achieved what those acquisitions promised.

One thing that is plain enough is that it is undesirable to trade out high picks for mids or flankers. That's likely because mids and flankers are easily found in the draft. By all means, trade them in for a need but don't mortgage the farm for them. Just a disclaimer - that principle probably goes straight out the window if Nick Daicos is ever (God forbid) on the market.

[Pies4shaw]

Rayner looked good, stood up in a cutthroat final.

There's a first time for everything. He was invisible the previous week and unsighted last night until the wheels fell off the Geelong bus. He was great at the end but I do not believe he can be trusted - he is a bit of a bully who depends on finding physical gaps in the opposition. There are plenty such gaps during the home and away but not too many in Finals. There are quite a few big, strong, fast, skilled players who get better in the heat of Finals. I don't believe Rayner is one of them. He's played 12 Finals, now - and that's the first one he's really shown anything in (unless you count his 3 goals at the Gabba in the QF drubbing of Port Adealaide last year, which, personally, I don't). Last night was the 5th time he has played in a PF or a GF and his previous record was, in total, 34 disposals and 1 goal, 1 behind (ie, an average of 8 and a half disposals and a quarter of a goal per game). Last night, he had 18 disposals (14 kicks), 5 tackles and kicked 2.2. Qtr by qtr, he had 1 disposal in the first quarter, 3 in the second, 11 (and 1.2) in the third and 3 (and a goal) in the 4th. That game should have been over before halftime. Of course, it's very funny that it wasn't and that Geelong choked so badly when the game was in their control but I'd want to see a lot more of that before I paid any attention at all to Rayner. But, even if I did, I'd still have the image in my mind of him trying to bully Collingwood early in the 2023 Grand Final and turning to water after Markov caught him in the midfield. Rayner has all the attributes necessary to have kicked the goal De Goey kicked lat in that GF - but he didn't: instead, Rayner was putting on, as is typical, his impersonation of a ringwraith in all the big moments.

[Pies2016]

@Pies4shaw. Totally agree how the multiple trading in of players worked for Collingwood twice ( 2010 and 2023 ) We should also be thankful there are just as many clubs like Essendon, Carlton and Saints who continue to wallpaper over the cracks and get it horribly wrong year in, year out. Let’s not forget, we paid a heavy price for the Beams and Treloar trades and all for little return, so there’s history to remind us we have our skeletons in this area too.
The Lions will be an interesting watch from the trading for the now perspective. Imagine an investment that includes Neale, Cameron, Daniher and Dunkley and doesn’t have a flag to show for it. Win this weekend and the list manager is a genius but lose again and the pressure to make amends while they all remain, increases exponentially.