What are our chances ~ 2025

[Big T]

Personally a Hail Mary at a flag with older players is a massive mistake for mine. I’m not against keeping our vets but I am against bringing in any new players over 25. Should be targeting quality players in the 22-25 age group and high draft picks if we manufacture something from Noble Richard’s etc trades

[WhyPhilWhy?]

Without any evidence to back up my opinion, I reckon the kids in the VFL haven't come on quite as might have been hoped, so we needed to keep a number of the veterans that might otherwise have been retired.

But... If I was most of those veterans, I wouldn't be expecting to play 24 rounds next year.

[Skids]

We need a power forward. If we had Hogan, we'd be playing a qualifying final next weekend.

Bobby Hill winning our leading goalkicker award with 30 goals is laughable. Checkers, with under 200 goals, has won it 5 times.
We haven't had a player kick 50 in over a decade.
You can't blame age. Sure we have the "oldest" list, but only marginally. The next 5 " oldest" clubs are all playing next weekend.

[LaurieHolden]

@WhyPhilWhy? Part of the evidence is the VFL sides result this year, 2nd last.
While their side was turned over through injury impact to our senior list, it still reflected we didn't have the depth and competitive edge to lift the standard. Ottens has a real job ahead of him for 2025 to develop this list.
I was surprised Fraser exited, would like to hear from someone that was privy to the reasons behind this.

[RudeBoy]

We need a power forward. If we had Hogan, we'd be playing a qualifying final next weekend.

Bobby Hill winning our leading goalkicker award with 30 goals is laughable. Checkers, with under 200 goals, has won it 5 times.
We haven't had a player kick 50 in over a decade.
You can't blame age. Sure we have the "oldest" list, but only marginally. The next 5 " oldest" clubs are all playing next weekend.

Dominant power forwards are overrated imho. Remember we won the flag last year without one, as we did in 1990. Also, the Swans never won one with Buddy or with Lockett. A multi-faceted forward line is much better. Next year we should have McStay, Checkers, WHE, Hill, Elliott and Schultz, with a resting ruckman now and again. I'd back them in to win us a flag, as long as we win the ball in the midfield.

[LaurieHolden]

^dominant power forwards haven't been a thing since leaded petrol was completely phased out.

[Skids]

^dominant power forwards haven't been a thing since leaded petrol was completely phased out.

That was 2021 (Algeria being the final country to do so). So you are correct, Carlton missed with Curnow and McKay in 22 & 23
Carlton and Richmond are the only sides to have missed finals in the last 17 years with the coleman medal winner in their side.

I think you may change your assessment after Hogan ends up with a Premiership medal to go with his coleman.

[qldmagpie67]

Without knowing the complete comings and going’s yet it’s hard to make a definitive arguement either way
We’re linked to big bodied mids right now which tells me we are looking to be more of a contested ball side around the contest and to move other pieces around to best suit our needs
We’re apparently into Peatling Davies Hobbs (we won’t want all 3 but I can see 2 of them coming) so that would add to Mitchell JDG Allan Schulz Crisp as the inside mids
There won’t be a need for Pendles or Sidey to play inside then
I can see Pendles coming off HBF adding some real direction and calmness to the back 6
Sidey can’t run on a wing any longer but he may get a run with role depending on who’s in the opposition. Maybe he spends some time in the VFL assisting with the development of some of the kids
I if we lose Noble I want to see Parker get first crack at his spot. I’ve seen enough to make me think he has a huge upside
I think you’ll see we will use Nick Josh McCreery Lipinski WHE and possibly Demattia on a wing to be explosive runners and fast ball movement
Forward line will function better with both McStay and checkers in it.
If we can add 2 or 3 new faces and 2 or 3 of our kids come in we could easy bounce back to top 4

[LaurieHolden]

^dominant power forwards haven't been a thing since leaded petrol was completely phased out.

That was 2021 (Algeria being the final country to do so). So you are correct, Carlton missed with Curnow and McKay in 22 & 23
Carlton and Richmond are the only sides to have missed finals in the last 17 years with the coleman medal winner in their side.

I think you may change your assessment after Hogan ends up with a Premiership medal to go with his Coleman.

If Jesse Hogan becomes one, he'll be the AFL version of a Unicorn. It's taken 3 Clubs and 10 years for him to have a crack, if indeed he does get there.
The Lions are my pick for the flag, they can score heavily from multiple sources.

2002 was when Australia went lead free and ever since it took a generational player in Buddy Franklin in 2008 to break this trend of Coleman winning Premiership players.
Other than Buddy, full forwards haven't won Norm Smiths https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norm_Smith_Medal Brownlows [/url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_B ... al_winners or MVP's https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leigh_Matthews_Trophy.

Give me gun midfielders that consistently handle the ball 30 times coupled with team DNA over the romantic notion of a key forward anytime.

We still finished 8th on the goal kicking table in 2024 with McStay and Mihocek out for the bulk of the year. 15 goals behind the Coleman winning Hogan's GWS. And 28 goals less than Carlton that had the services of 2 former Coleman medallists for the bulk of the year, let alone the past 3.

I still reckon a core blend of Mihocek, McStay, (inbound trade), Schultz, Elliott, Hill will kick more than the side who has 'individual award' of the 2025 Coleman medallist. See you here August 2025 to see how that prediction fares.

[piffdog]

I don’t have the exact stats at hand, but have seen numbers to suggest that “power forwards” have less and less influence in games the closer you get to grand final day. The nature of the game (more contest and pressure) makes it harder for big forwards to dominate like they might in the H&A season.

I think a KPF can help get you there but I dont think they necessarily guarantee you’ll win it.

I can see Hogan having less influence in September. I guess we’ll see soon enough.

[Rd10.1998_11.1#36]

Harking back to the OP… do people really believe we intentionally “shut up shop” at 3/4 time and try to defend whatever lead we have??

[slangman]

What are our chances in 2025???

We will win the Premiership!!!

[Big T]

Well one thing is for sure, Joe Daniher had all of us crapping the bed in the granny last year and especially in the last quarter. He almost took the cup out of our hands and was an absolute force of nature looming like a colossus in their forward line.

[warburton lad]

Chances are very good- speaking pre-Trades and National Drafts:

B: Howe. Frampton. Maynard
HB: Josh Daicos. Moore. Crisp
C: Lipinski Allan. Quaynor
HF: McCreery. McStay. Schultz
F: Elliott. Mihocek. Hill

Ruck. Cameron. De Goey
Rov. Nick Daicos

IC: Sidebottom(tagger) Cox, DeMattia, WHE, Pendlebury

I would love to think that we could nab three of the following in Trades or Free Agency:
Membrey, Stringer, Davies, Peatling, Tomlinson, Brandon Parfitt (UFA)

Imagine Stringer and De Goey resting in the forward pocket (replacing Elliott)
Imagine Membrey instead of Schultz??
Imagine Davies or Peatling as a big-bodied mid???
Imagine Tomlinson as the Howe back-up or as a tall wingman??
Imagine Brandon Parfitt as an inside mid

[Gerry Cooper]

Depending how the top 4 sides from this year pull up, I see us as a middling/low eight next year unless we pull off some recruiting coups and football dept grows some. One thing that wont improve from this year to next is the performance of some our ageing on-ballers. This year it was pretty obvious that some of them can't really run out games any more. It's a key reason for most of our fade outs in the second half of games this season. I'm not that happy that the club is letting Pendlebury, Sidebottom and Crisp chase records, particularly as their onfield performance is fading fast. Steele may have found as new role as a tagger but once again I'm not convinced he can run out games in that role either. Next year, with the seniors going around again, and if Degoey and Mitchell are back and stay fit then there will be even less chance for our potential new midfielders to get games. Games they need for their development.

Noble's immanent departure opens the door for Parker. Someone suggested Pendlebury for that role but that's likely to create an even bigger weak spot across halfback than the one Noble has recently performed. Opposition tackling small forwards will love a slow 30-something playing across half back - and it will keep a promising youngster out of the senior team.

So far this season, I've seen little to suggest that McRae will be sending our seniors back to the VFL next year. If that continues (which is likely) we will be a low eight side at best. If we continue to have shameful capitulations like some we experienced this year, we will be lucky to achieve even that.