Nick's Collingwood Bulletin Board

Hitchhiker wrote:I think I get your point, but I'm still baffled at the value placed on draft picks in trades.

The draft is a lottery, outside the top 5 or 10 the odds of getting a 200 gamer seem slim.

Despite that, draft trades look like the recipient club believe they will be the one lucky enough to draft Fyffe at 22 or Cripps at 13. There seems to be an unrealistic value placed on the future draft pick being the one to grab you a star

Henry looks to be a good selection at 17. He has talent and has shown the ability to be along term AFL player.

If any club drafted him at 17 would they be upset? It seems absurd to me that after showing he is AFL quality, he could be valued at something less

You’re absolutely right that it is a lottery, which poses the question why should anyone see Henry as any different at #17. He’s not getting a game in a team that’s perceived to lack quality forwards and yet we want a first rounder for a twenty year old who shows a bit but can’t cement his spot. Lipinski had a similar profile, albeit older and we got him for the low forties.
Carlton are happy to unload Paddy Dow at the right trade but they’re not asking for pick 3 because that’s what they took him at. That was their mistake, not any club who may decide to throw Carlton a bone for Dow. Stocker was #19 and they just delisted him and he played senior footy in 2022 also. Not even Carlton were silly enough to waste their own time and ask for something similar as a trade return. You don’t get rewarded for making a blue at the draft table ( I’m not saying Henrys selection position is a mistake at all but I am saying he remains an unknown )

You need to look at Henry’s body of work as an AFL footballer after two years in an elite program and if the decision makers think he’s worth a late first rounder, then that’s fine. But you can’t automatically associate the current value of a player to his draft pick because his first club took him at that pick.
How would we feel if a club came to us and said we will give you pick 35 for Josh Daicos and you should be happy with that because he only cost us pick 55 ( from memory ) on the night. If Henry goes, I would be chuffed if we got their first rounder but I don’t see that as a likely result. I do see the likelihood of a second round pick and I also see no reason why we wouldn’t take it, after we had put up a good fight for something better of course.

We also need to remember Bruhn remains a priority signing at Geelong and I would suggest he has achieved more in footy than Henry. I’d be very confident whatever they cough up for Bruhn, it will be less for Henry. Would you hand over pick # 12 for Tanner Bruhn ? I doubt it and yet he was pick 12 and in the same draft, so by that comparison, I don’t see how Henry is worth # 17 ( unless you would hand over #12 for Bruhn ) I guess we will all know soon enough.

Henry has already helped win games of football off his own boot as a 2nd year medium forward. Hell he even received his first Brownlow vote. Bruhn is a midfielder, always easier to find, his career disposal average is currently on par with Macrae and only his goal output elevates him above.

If he's of more value to Geelong presently it's only because their midfield is made up of dads army. Long term if Henry fulfills his potential I'd argue his position is harder to fill and thus this makes him worth more.

They'll need to give up a first round selection for both Bruhn and Henry I'd suggest unless a suitable player is involved.

I could argue that Henry was a value pick at #17 simply by what I have seen.

Yes he isnt getting a game but Ash had a purple patch and that is why OH was unfortunate not to get more game time.
Anyone can see his talent and the only thing holding him back was his defensive running.
P Cripps wasnt a great runner in early years and then last Sunday happened.

OH will be a massive value pick if those cats get him for a second round pick.

For me its at least pick 17 that we should be aiming to get for him, otherwise its another win for those c%$&s .......again.

Mobile marking forwards with vice like hands are worth a premium. As it stands now, I would choose him over a speculative 5-10 draft pick.

Henry is no longer a speculation. He is ready for a full season in the big time to establish himself. He can only get better. imo

North would pay for a Henry for the next 10 years.

He has to be worth at least pick 10, or if we are over a barrel, late first round + 3rd round.

I think there was some news on Ollie today but it flew under the radar. Anyone know?

I do get he doesn’t yet do the hard work without the ball so for the right now he might not be hurting not being in the 23 but god he showed a lot with it. He could be anything and you don’t let that go easily. Hoping he stays or we get a very high pick given we will get unders for Grundy.

Keep Ollie, just too piss off Geebung, that alone is worth keeping him, good kid too , could be anything down the track.

The longer this goes, the better.

Henry hasn't come out and said he out of the club- there has been no public posturing about wanting a lot more $$$

I think that he has enormous potential and has already shown that he can clunk marks and kick important goals to win games.

I imagine that he will quietly sign on in the next few days and run out in Round One 2023 in black and white.

Ollie was at the club for our AFLW game, so that’s a sign. Unless he’s mysteriously bought Geelong property for $800k less than it’s asking price, good chance he’ll stay. We won’t know until after the GF, when Geelong lowball us with a third round pick 70. The Geelong Falcons mafia can get effed.

Hopefully it's one of those cases where he is happy to sign, but the spread of $$ is waiting to be finalized pending other contracts etc.

Or, he will nominate Geelong on Monday.

Pick around 10, or equal player.

Yep. Enjoy the weekend, relax, and wait for the 30th.

warburton lad wrote:The longer this goes, the better.

Henry hasn't come out and said he out of the club- there has been no public posturing about wanting a lot more $$$

I think that he has enormous potential and has already shown that he can clunk marks and kick important goals to win games.

I imagine that he will quietly sign on in the next few days and run out in Round One 2023 in black and white.

That’s because the club he’s going to is still playing, the fact nothing has been said is a sure sign he’s headed to Geelong.

Maybe he’ll take Selwood’s money!

piffdog wrote:If Henry and Grundy went to Geelong what would be fair trade compensation? Given that Grundy leaving would be in part to create some room in our cap and all the reports are we're prepared to pay a portion - the more we would pay the more we should expect as a trade shouldnt we?

Surely we would get their current #18 and #36? Maybe #18 and next year's first rounder?

Henry went at pick #17 - surely he's no worse than that now he has a couple years development and has shown some real talent...

This post is not intended as in support of or against this happening - I am just genuinely curious as to what (realistic) trade would make it happen.

IF GRUNDY AND HENRY. both end up at shithole Geebung, that DEFINITELY MEANS THE CATS DO NOT HAVE A SALARY CAP, AND SOMEONE IS COOKING THE BLOODY BOOKS DOWN AT SLEEPY HOLLOW.

Oliver Henry pick #17 2020 AFL draft vs Jamarra Ugle-Hagan pick #1 2020 AFL draft

Season 2022 comparison.

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_ ... 1=S&fid2=S

By virtue of his #1 selection in the 2020 AFL draft Ugle-Hagan was declared the best junior prospect in the country.

To date Henry is holding his own up against him.

Now try telling me he isn't worth a 1st round selection in any trade.