What are our chances ~ 2025

[lazzadesilva]

@Gerry Cooper Respectfully I disagree. I have always believed that young players are predominantly developed best in the Seconds within the club environment. They have hopefully reached a reasonable level of development by then.

[Gerry Cooper]

^Only up to a point, games in the seniors do more for a young player's development than 10 games in the VFL, as we have seen recently from the likes of Allen and Parker I would suggest. Extended stays in the VFL are also detrimental for their motivation if there is little chance of them getting games in the seniors. Really for better or worse we should have started moving the seniors on if not last year, then this year. The problems of running out games is not going to get better, it will be worse next season for sure. Opposition teams all know of this problem. Its why they keep a bit back for the last quarter and come home hard on us. They know we are very vulnerable then.

[Gerry Cooper]

Interesting.

Why the defending premiers struggled to fire: Ten things to hate about Collingwood's 2024 season
https://www.theroar.com.au/2024/08/29/w ... 24-season/

[lazzadesilva]

@Gerry Cooper you are probably right about players being better developed in the Seniors than the Seconds but obviously the times have changed since one of the greatest players to play the game, Michael Tuck being content to play over 50 games in the seconds to develop his game before being promoted to the seniors!! He didn’t sook, whine, whinge and carry on about wanting to leave Hawthorn Wonder whether it was loyalty to the club, knowing that he needed further development over a three year period in the seconds, intelligence or something else that made him do this happily? Yep, he wasn’t as precious as some of the darlings who play the game today.

[Gerry Cooper]

I don't think either of us know what Tuck thought or what his motivations were. Since we are referring to the 1970's would you have kept John Greening in the seconds for three years? How about Jason Dunstall? or even more recently, Pendlebury and Thomas?

[RudeBoy]

I am reasonably confident we'll have a better year next season and finish in the top 4. I guess, my only worry is that despite debuting many players in 2024, few of them have really left a mark, except Allan (and possibly Parker) in round 24 and Richards who seems to be destined for a trade anyway. As for the rest, we can only hope that Dean improves next year, but I don't see much futures for Sullivan, Bytel or Long. Added to that assessment is the failure of McInnes and Macrae to seize their opportunities.

Given the expected further decline of our veterans, our improvement next year must come from having a healthier list (ie fewer injuries) and players like Allan, Parker, DeMattia, Steene and possibly Smit stepping up and having an impact. My view has always been that we need to bring in a minimum of 3 (preferably 4) new regular senior players every year. In 2023 those were Hill, McStay, Frampton and Markov. Given our limited draft options this year, I am hoping that some of the young players I mentioned take the bull by the horns and demand senior selections in 2025. If that happens, we will have a very successful season.

[lazzadesilva]

I don't think either of us know what Tuck thought or what his motivations were. Since we are referring to the 1970's would you have kept John Greening in the seconds for three years? How about Jason Dunstall? or even more recently, Pendlebury and Thomas?

To answer your question, no I wouldn’t have done that. However I do think that the times have changed since young players were patient to play seconds before the club thought they were ready. I don’t have the stats to back me up but I wonder how many reserves games Greening, Dunstall, Pendles and Daisy played before being promoted? Surely they would have played at least 10 or 12 before seniors? Happy to meet in the middle and say 6 or 7 games.

[SLORT]

For everyone with the x-mas shopping list of players, if you're bringing one (or more) in who are you dropping? Or are your pickups going to be only for depth?

Full Backs: I.Quaynor 25 B.Frampton 28 B.Maynard 28
Half Backs: J.Howe 34 D.Moore 29 S.Pendlebury 37
Centre: J.Daicos 26 J.De Goey 29 P.Lipinski 26
Half F’wards: B.McCreery 23 B.Mihocek 32 L.Schultz 27
Full F’wards: B.Hill 25 D.McStay 29 J.Elliot 32

Followers: D.Cameron 29 T.Mitchell 32 N.Daicos 22

Interchange: S.Sidebottom 34 W.HElliot 31 J.Crisp 31
M.Cox 34 W.Parker 22

[LaurieHolden]

^History shows, it won't be a draft player, it'll be from a trade.
Outside of Nick Daicos, who was the last player in their debut year that forced their way onto the current list and dislodged a player?
It answers itself; you replace a player with one who is better / evolves the list via the Trade period.

Every player speculated in the trade thread is being done so to improve the list / improve on a known deficiency.
Any of the established players mentioned in the trade thread come straight in - Houston or Tomlinson straight into the backline. Peatling mid-forward.

I'd also be looking at our exiting list.
Parker and the forgotten man Ryan will undoubtedly get their opportunities. Unfortunately, Harrison is more a 2026 prospect.

[RudeBoy]

Good point LH. However, I also think 2 or 3 of our up and coming players, from Allan, DeMattia, Steene, Smit, Ryan and TJ, could become regular senior players by the end of next season. Throw in one or two trades and we can definitely improve our team considerably.

[LaurieHolden]

Where do we win an extra 4 games to guarantee finals / push for top4? ~ The draw. We'll be much better positioned playing the bottom sides twice.
How do we not lose more games? ~Stick to our system but phase in pace and endurance (youth!) so no more 4th qtr losses. Add / trade in some class and pace to the backline.
Which players have plateaued? ~ JDG, Pendlebury, Howe, Sidebottom, Crisp, Maynard, Elliott, WHE, Cox, Mitchell, Mihocek, McStay
Which players have AA squad upside / potential? JDG, Jaicos, Naicos, Cameron, IQ, McCreery, Moore, Lipinski, Hill, Schultz.
Which players have upside? Our youth

We need backline class and a marking forward. If the trade drums are indeed beating true Houston (27 y/o- 186cm-88kg) and Tomlinson (31 y/o- 194cm-95kg), Perryman (26 y/o-186cm-85kg) offer real appeal.
Q is not Tomlinson's ability, its whether he can get his body right. He'd come relatively cheap and offers us time to develop Dean.
Houston, well his CV comes with AA pedigree. If his character stands up, then push our chips in. Houston's main weapon from HB is his leg, great kick both distance and 'to-advantage', in that distributor role. I don't see him as a running player per se.
Perryman could play in a number of positions.
All fill positions that are core requirements / deficiencies on our current list.
Then we get to tinker with positional changes. The luxury of trading in both defenders would give us the option to move Howe forward as a marking target, even if we don't lure Peatling.
I'm of a view McCreery could become an AA HBF within 2 years. If indeed he has appeal from Port, let's make him a more versatile player and increase is trade value in the interim.

B: Crisp TRADE Maynard
HB: TRADE Moore McCreery

C: Jaicos JDG Lipinski
Foll: Cameron Mitchell Naicos

HF: Howe / TRADE Mihocek Schultz
F: Hill McStay Elliot

I/C from ~
Backs: Dean, Frampton, Eyre > IQ, Ryan, Jiath, Markov, Bytel
Foll: Cox, Steene, Smit > Macrae, Sullivan
C: TRADE, Allan, Pendlebury, Long > Sidebottom, Parker, DeMattia
Forwards: TRADE, WHE, McInnes, Johnson > Richards, Harrison (inj.)

If we do this, the coaches get fresh strategy pieces to play with, the VFL team gets a badly needed injection of experience to develop the youth (make Pendles Captain / Coach in 2026 - imagine the gate receipts at Victoria Park!!) and we might get to see the class of Pendles & co fit enough at the business end of the season before they put the dressing gown on for the last time.

[BazBoy]

I’m looking at what our kids waiting in the wings will impact/improve our chance for 2025
I have in no order as players who can be tried in pre-season game then thru season 2025
Ed Allan
Harry DeMattia
Ilf Smit

Any others anyone can add

[RudeBoy]

I think our prospects for improvement next year will be largely determined by stabilising our footy department. The manner of the departure of Wright deeply worries me.

[Pies2016]

The absolute irony of this upcoming trade period is that the two players who could POTENTIALLY be the biggest difference between a Pies 2025 flag or not, are two of the most polarising players in recent AFL history. Jake Stringer and Rory Lobb.
I can’t stress enough I’m not advocating we go out and pursue these guys but in terms of a 2025 tilt and not much more, I can’t think of any two other players who would fill our immediate void more perfectly ( I’m only talking about players who have been linked with trading clubs this off season)
Lobb the enigma, as a key defender who can also pinch hit in the ruck and forward and then there’s the perennial underachiever, Stringer, who would rotate between midfield and forward with DeGoey.
The issues with them have been well documented and are multi layered and both have already been at five clubs between them. We will probably never know the truth but I wonder just how seriously the club may be considering making a play for either one or maybe even both of these guys.
High risk for high reward or just dumb ? Guess we will know by the end of the trade period.

[SLORT]

The absolute irony of this upcoming trade period is that the two players who could POTENTIALLY be the biggest difference between a Pies 2025 flag or not, are two of the most polarising players in recent AFL history. Jake Stringer and Rory Lobb.

According to SEN Lobb was one of the only shining lights against a rampant Hawthorn. I have really warmed to the idea of him in our backline.

People seem to be scared of strong, outspoken characters. They''d rather have tin soldiers, pure athletes that never step out of line. The fact is that it is always the team with the most heart, guts, and grit that will win the flag. It's the reason Buckley's turfing out of the ratbags cost us success in the 2010's.

If Lobb and Stringer are bought in, and buy in to Fly and our culture, then I really could see a flag or even two come out of it. Provided we don't give up half our chaos-ballers to get them.