What are our chances for 2024?

[David]

To answer the thread question back to back has happened 23 times over the 126 years of the league giving us a purely mathematical 18.3% chance of achieving it. However, when I consult my magic 8 ball it says lock it in, just like it did for this year.

Nearly 1 in 5 isn't bad!

[Piesnchess]

Be awesome if we can go back to back, but nothing is certain. I reckon its going to be a lot harder than this season was, much more. I say that cos the Giants wiill be an awesome team next season, as will Lions, they will be spewing they went down so close. That could well be next yrs GF, GWS V Lions. Plus, the swans will be better again, with Tay, Grundy, be hard to beat, and Blues will improve too and Deees cannot be discounted. I just cant see us winning so many close games again, Port and Crows at home, over there, will be really tough. If we can finish top 4, you never know, but we will have to have a good run with injuries again . Lockie Shulz wiill increase our goals total, so thats a real bonus for sure. To be perfectly honest, im not fussed about next yr, far as im concerned, im bloody happy now, with sweet 16, the pressure is off, totally , I can sit back, relax and enjoy footy again, knowing we have the very recent 2023 Premiership Cup, its ours, and if we get another next yr, great, if we dont, I wont be at all disappointed, to be honest. Im relaxed and comfortable now. !

[LaurieHolden]

I look forward to what Macrae (Fly 3.0) delivers, with that I can only see us improving.
Our biggest risk, Moore or JDG going down for extended injury time. Two players we can't cover for any length of time on the sidelines.

Our Premiership Defensive and Midfield mix looks set in place.
I'm of a view our scoring potential is where we'll see the most noticeable improvement.

With Shultz coming in, might we see Bobby rotated and released up the ground to make more of those line breaking dashes?
He's as good and as evasive in full flight as we've had for some years. Review the PF to see how he carved through a squad of GWS players at the 4.11 mark

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJTFsdE ... otballClub

The addition of Schultz has been universally signed off as a positive and expected to line up Round 1.

And all going well, we'll get our first full season from McStay.

I don't believe the Johnson experiment is over for a moment, he's simply too talented. One player in our forward line that could be our own Ugle-Hagan. If Johnson improves his leading patterns and continue to use his aerial gifts to cause chaos to the competitions best defensive units, we'll really have something to talk about come mid-season.

Talls ~ Johnson / McStay / Mihocek / Krueger / McInnes
Medium / Small ~ Elliott / McCreery / Hill / Schultz / Harrison

We've tended to become a team that has thrown up a range of statistical anomalies to achieve our wins, but one that never lies is scoring quality.

Over 2023 we slotted 346 goals / 202 behinds for 58.38% accuracy, while averaging 25.3 shots on goal per game. Adjusting for rushed behinds see that fall to 52.5%, still the highest in the league. As Julie McCreery stressed "when in front of goals, make them count!"

Those opening rounds against Geelong and Port shows how potent that might be with 30 shots on each outing.

Source :
https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats ... ?year=2023

So with our mix of forwards, and Fly 3.0 whatever incarnation that comes in, we should be right in it come the business end of the season.

[RudeBoy]

Great analysis there Laurie.

My hope also is that we see a big improvement from players like Macrae and Allan, to provide us a real boost in midfield depth. If that happens, then we'll be set up really well to have a genuine crack at back to back Premierships.

[LaurieHolden]

^ you thinking Allan for WHE in a utility role? Would appear that's one role he could develop into before we know if he has the calibre to move into the midfield.
I suspect WHE isn't going to take that lying down though.
Allan will no doubt need time off the HBF and HFF

I've really no idea about the merits of managing players but allowing Mitchell to rest for a handful of matches throughout the year should then offer Macrae the opportunity to prove himself.

Maybe Pies2016 if you're tuned in, can offer some insight to how we might best develop these players.

[Charlie Oneeye]

No doubt, some of our players are legends, but all teams have those. For me, it's the sum of the parts.

It is the synergy of the side, ball movement, actions as a collective in certain situations.

The wanted seniors are still there, the squad is heading into season 3 under Fly's coaching.

Once again, what to do about close finishes ? The 2022 close finish trend went into overdrive in 2023 lol.. but we won a GF.

I think we will be better in 2024... maybe these so-called 20-minute spurts which tends to give us a game winning lead will last for longer.

[Pies2016]

^ you thinking Allan for WHE in a utility role? Would appear that's one role he could develop into before we know if he has the calibre to move into the midfield.
I suspect WHE isn't going to take that lying down though.
Allan will no doubt need time off the HBF and HFF

I've really no idea about the merits of managing players but allowing Mitchell to rest for a handful of matches throughout the year should then offer Macrae the opportunity to prove himself.

Maybe Pies2016 if you're tuned in, can offer some insight to how we might best develop these players.

Thanks for the shout out, Laurie. Obviously I’m just another opinion but I’m happy to give my thoughts on the young blokes and where they may all fit in 2024.
The first thing we need to acknowledge is this is no easy team to break into. It’s not easy for any kid who is still yet to debut in the seniors to just roll up and break into the best team in the competition in the space of one extra pre season. I personally think the likes of Noble, Johnson, McInnes and Lipinski ( not in premiership 22 ) have more credits at AFL level to be given an earlier opportunity in the seniors in 2024 than any untried debutant ( I will include Ryan in this conversation ) I know the club is really encouraged by both Ryan and Allan but they are both still blank canvasses in terms of being AFL ready and breaking into the best in the business.
When it comes to improving / developing, the best way to develop any young player is to get them exponentially fitter from one season to the next. Being fitter means participating in more contests and being involved in more contests is where they learn the most about themselves and their own game.
The fitter the likes of MacRae, Ryan and Allan come back from the off season ( and that’s before the pre season ) the sooner we will all see these guys. Quaynor is a wonderful example of the above. Everyone talked about his preseason as being something special and that’s how his season played out. Talent and skill can only take you so far, but it’s the hard yards that allow you to be the best you can.
Allan is creative, reasonably agile for his size and sees the game well but he wasn’t ready in 2023. He just didn’t look like he ran out games well enough in the VFL ( which is fair enough at 19 ) It’s asking for a lot of improvement in his fitness levels if he’s to be selected in the firsts next year. Ryan is ahead of him right now, albeit in an easier position to play. Ryan looks a fine young player to me. He reads the play so well at VFL level, he’s hard to keep out of game. Nice mark and uses the ball well. But again, his chances of playing seniors will be determined by the quality of his preseason. MacRae is harder to pick for mine because we go back to him being a good VFL player but not really having a one wood or enough of a point of difference to hold down a spot in the best team in the competition.
As always, injuries or not remain the outlier in all of the above and while that’s out of anyones control, quality training and not looking for short cuts is in every players control and that’s what will determine the fortunes of both the individual and the club more than anything in 2024.

[Boot]

As it sits now my best team for Collingwood at the start of the 2024 season will look like this;
B: Maynard, Moore, Howe
HB: Quaynor, Murphy, Markov
C: Sidebottom, DeGoey, J.Daicos
HF: McCreery, Mihocek, Hill
F:Elliot, McStay, Schultz
R: Cox, Pendlebury, N.Daicos
IC: Cameron, Hoskin-Elliot, Crisp, Mitchell
Sub: Lipinski
Emerg: Frampton, Macrae, Noble,

Depth: Johnson, McInnes, Allan, Ryan, Harrison, Carmichael

Clearly its a tough team to break into, but the age factor will eventually catch up with our over 32's and of course injury is always a factor.
I'd love to see Aiden Begg develop as key forward to position himself as a replacement for Mihocek over the next couple of years. Hence the club has to stop playing him in the VFL as a ruckman. I doubt Begg has the height to make it in the AFL as a ruckman. All current top ruckmen are over 200 cm. e.g. Cox is 211 and Cameron is 204.
Begg at 197 cm is a good size for a key forward (Mihocek at 192 is a exception to the rule, McStay is 196) so he just has to focus on developing his contested marking and general forward craft. Begg and Kreuger should form the two key forward spots in the VFL for Collingwood at the start of 2024 and the better of those be positioned to as depth if there is any injury to Mihocek or McStay. Ash Johnston is better suited as the 3rd tall in a forward line where his mercurial skill set allows him to be a damaging weapon. If he applies himself to get as fit as he has ever been then he has the potential to be the replacement of Jamie Elliott over the next two seasons. Consistency is what we need to get from Ash Johnston. The other option for 3rd tall is Reef Mcinnes who at 194 cm and with speed has great potential and has also shown glimpses of skill sets that make him a good VFL player that hopefully with another big preseason will elevate him to be a good AFL player.
Ed Allan looks to have the physical attributes to be a similar inside mid to Tom Greene at the GWS. Hopefully his development next season forces his way into the team as a ready replacement for the inevitable retirements of Pendlebury and Sidebottom.
Fin Macrae looks certain to take over the role that Adams had, but Adams wasn't in the Grand Final team so again, unless Tom Mitchell is injured, it will be tough for Macrae to break into the best 22, but he seems destined to be first off the "standby" group in the event of any injuries. I'd like to see some improvement by Macrae to be more damaging with his delivery when he is free with the ball. Also a weakness of Adams, but Adams was tougher and stronger than Macrae appears to be? When first drafted one of the listed strengths of Macrae was his good disposal on both sides of his body so hopefully that aspect of his game will show out in 2024.
Jacob Ryan is an interesting prospect who I'm told is very well regarded by club insiders. I wasn't overly impressed by his very short cameo debut, but I expect him to be in the mix to be a potential replacement for Jack Crisp should Jack ever miss a game.
Does John Noble over come the disappointment of being overlooked for the finals? Now that the coach has decided he can't risk having Noble's lack of one-on-one contested strength in the back-line, and Markov's greater strength and height put him ahead of Noble given he provides as much run out of defense, I think John Noble has to reinvent himself as that hard running wingman to be in a position to replace Sidebottom. Noble does have good skills and has demonstrated terrific desperation when he plays well so there may still be some future for him at AFL level.
Regardless of who improves over the upcoming pre-season, it will be a challenge for Collingwood to maintain the reserve players motivation for the next season and hence I think there will need to be some greater level of "player management" in 2024 to not only give some of our older stars the physical rest needed to ensure that they are at their best come September, but also give the depth players the exposure to AFL level that ensures they have the opportunity to develop and gain the experience to be able to adjust to the faster tempo of the game at the highest level.

[Pies4shaw]

^ You've transgressed the Board's unwritten law by naming Sidebottom in your best 22. He's been depth for the last 14 seasons.

[Podpicken]

McStay and Shultz will strengthen us. Expect F. McRae or Reef McInness, possibly both, to step up too with breakout seasons. Ryan and Ed Allan will improve in an ideal world, start making their case.
Daicos x2 get better. McCreery and IQ possibly to be played more in the middle for the transition in coming years.
A pretty healthy list for pre-season. Confidence sky-high. Same coaching contingent.
All barring a bad run of injuries, we're in REALLY nick for a back to back tilt.

[SwansWay]

I don’t know about anybody else but I felt a strange vibe after the flag. Ever since I could remember there was always a sense that Collingwood were tethered to a bizarre phenomenon of never allowing the fans to feel confident going into September. Even when we were favourites, we still had a lingering underdog feeling to us, even in our dominant 2010-11 period. Yet somehow in 2023, I feel it’s a new day. Not just from the Buckley-Eddie era but going back several decades. The ultimate test was, could Collingwood win a close grand final? We did. It always felt strange to be victorious to me. Like it was a hold your breath moment and then you rewatched the game in disbelief that we actually won. Now winning a flag doesn’t feel so strange anymore. It feels normal, like it did for Geelong, Hawthorn and Richmond. I feel that McRae and Co. have removed 5 decades of something ineffable.

Can we go back-to-back? I say, yes. We fell 1 point short last year and since the start of 2022, we’ve lost very few games. Now winning feels like the norm and these players feel like as opposed to the past, we will our team over the line the way champion teams do.

[RudeBoy]

With McStay and Schultz as inclusions, I expect us to have a more potent forward line next year. Something tells me we'll have more big wins and less narrow nail biting ones.

We can definitely win the next 2 flags.

[Pies4shaw]

^ Only the next two? Pendlebury and Sidebottom will still have 4 good years in them after that.

[warburton lad]

I think our chances are very good.

The seriousness of the challenges to get in and remain in the 23 are growing and will, hopefully, continue to grow.

McStay and Schulz will basically come in with only Ginnivan out of the Premiership team.

Every player would have been aware that Wingard had a medical at the Pies and that McRae won't be shy to bring in new talent (from the draft, the VFL team)...

He is exactly the ruthless operator that we have needed for decades..

[nashy17]

I expect Schultz, McStay, McInness, McCrae and Allen to play or at least to have significant opportunities.

I think Frampton, Lipinski might struggle. Of course Ginnivan is gone.

Which means it will be a bun fight for spots.