Coronavirus 4 - Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

[Pies4shaw]

[stui magpie]

NSW also had 148,000 vaccinations yesterday, roughly 50-50 between the state hubs and GP's

They now have 4.475M people had 1 shot and 2.43M had 2.

That's 68% of people aged over 16 had 1 shot and 37% had 2.

With the 70+ demographic, it's 89.8% with 1 and 64% with 2.

[What'sinaname]

So, let's start a poll on the likely end of lockdown AND the start of the next lockdown

I'm thinking First week of December is the easing from lockdown, and back into lockdown by the 16th of December.

[Pies4shaw]

^ Stui, the vaccination numbers are a kind of "cover story" that Gladys is trying to sell. The national position is as follows:

- Just under 28% of the Australian population is double-vaccinated.
- 29% of the population of NSW has been double-vaccinated.
- That means that NSW is dragging behind Tasmania (34%) and the ACT (33%) and slightly ahead of other jurisdictions (NT 29%, Victoria 28%, SA 27%). Qld and WA are both just under 25%. All jurisdictions are, at present, a very long way short of any sensible target.

There has, of course, been a bit of a scramble to get first doses into people more rapidly since there was a bit of Delta out and about and, according to need, NSW got priority. So, the first dose only rate across jurisdictions is 54% of the population in NSW, 51% in the ACT, 48% in Tasmania, 45% in Victoria, 43% in SA, 42% in the NT and 40% in Qld and WA.

What this means, taken as a whole, is that all of Australia remains way short of the vaccination levels that would be apt for opening up under the Doherty modelling. Obviously, the priority for immediate emergency purposes has been to get people in NSW vaccinated. There may have been some merit in that (although, strictly speaking, it probably doesn't matter, epidemiologically, whether NSW has a first-vaccination rate a couple of per cent higher than some other parts of the country) - I think it was probably politically, rather than medically, expedient to go down that path - but the "national plan" requires the Cth to get vaccines out to the other jurisdictions that are now lagging behind. There isn't a great deal of medical merit to NSW "opening up" because it reaches some target it sets itself, if the rest of the country hasn't got there and the virus is exported to, eg, Qld (in particular, given its proximity) or WA.

It isn't, by the way, useful to say that by some date "people will have had their chance" - the problem with virus mutation is that it doesn't just kill stupid people who won't get vaccinated. The present form of the virus might tend to do that - but there is a massive need to just stop the virus circulating - the less of it there is, the less rapidly it will mutate further.

We already know that the UK has about 63% of its entire population vaccinated. It is still suffering 235,000 cases a week (up 2% on last week) and death rates continue to rise (over 800 in the last 7 days, up 15%). The US (with over 52% of its entire population vaccinated) is back over 1,000,000 new cases in the last week (up 5%) and deaths are up 6% - over 7,500 in the last week.

The deaths and hospitalisations in both countries - as in NSW - are largely confined to the unvaccinated. That doesn't mean that the impacts can be limited to the unvaccinated. First, because that sub-population is a reservoir for the disease and the more people are susceptible, the greater risk of it mutating into something even nastier. Secondly, because that level of hospitalisations means a whole lot of people who need care for other - non-COVID - matters are going to be kept from getting what they need because of the hospital and ICU resources sucked up by COVID patients.

Thus, it's a race to get Australians vaccinated - but it isn't a race between jurisdictions, in any relevant sense - although it might have the potential for some political capital.

[stui magpie]

^

I'll take all that. By the way I've decided to pivot my attitude and posting, I'm no longer giving a shit about who's to blame for what and how we got here. There's plenty of info on that and people make their opinions based on their own biases so it's a pointless exercise arguing that just pushes my crap onto people doing it hard.

I want to focus on where to from here and how we get out of this.

yes NSW isn't doing great on percentages against the smaller states but they are doing really well on numbers. Gladys has clearly given up on elimination and getting back to Covid zero and is focusing on a containment strategy while maximising vaccinations.

Dan is hedging his bets, playing a bon each way, not giving up on Covid zero but not (apparently) being stubbornly wedded to it, so there's hope.

Too many people have done it too hard for too long. Time to focus on the future

[Dave The Man]

Dan said he will ease Lockdown but I doubt he will.

Most he do will Open Playgrounds and Get rid of Curfew and that is probably it

[eddiesmith]

He needs to give people some hope or reason to actually follow his stupid rules. But last year when he set goals and we got to them early, they still waited till the tentative date before moving rather than the case levels.

But if they have mystery case thresholds we’ll be in lockdown till Christmas.

[Dave The Man]

He needs to give people some hope or reason to actually follow his stupid rules. But last year when he set goals and we got to them early, they still waited till the tentative date before moving rather than the case levels.

But if they have mystery case thresholds we’ll be in lockdown till Christmas.

Dan might come out and say we are in Permanent Lockdown then

[Jezza]

Metro Melbourne LGAs (15+ fully vaccinated) - as of Saturday, August 28

1. Boroondara = 43.0%
2. Mornington Peninsula = 42.1%
3. Nillumbik = 40.8%
4. Banyule = 40.6%
5. Glen Eira = 37.9%
6. Stonnington = 37.1%
7. Manningham = 36.7%
8. Whitehorse = 36.0%
9. Port Phillip = 35.3%
10. Maroondah = 35.1%
11. Moonee Valley = 35.0%
12. Kingston = 35.0%
13. Hobsons Bay = 34.1%
14. Yarra = 34.1%
15. Knox = 33.2%
16. Monash = 32.7%
17. Yarra Ranges = 31.8%
18. Maribyrnong = 31.2%
19. Frankston = 30.7%
20. Darebin = 29.7%
21. Moreland = 29.2%
22. Cardinia = 28.2%
23. Casey = 27.8%
24. Wyndham = 26.7%
25. Bayside = 26.4%
26. Whittlesea = 25.6%
27. Brimbank = 25.1%
28. Melbourne = 24.5%
29. Greater Dandenong = 24.1%
30. Melton = 23.9%
31. Hume = 22.4%

https://covidlive.com.au/report/vaccinations-by-lga/vic

[stui magpie]

C'mon Banyule

[What'sinaname]

Victoria has recorded 1115 local cases in the 27 days since the state’s last “donut day”.

That includes the 76 new cases reported on Tuesday.

By comparison, NSW had recorded 767 cases by July 13, the 27th day of its outbreak, which started in mid-June.

#Lockdowns work

[Pies4shaw]

^ That's an intellectually dishonest comparison. I know you didn't write it but you don't have to disseminate piffle without reflection.

Victoria's last "donut day" on 4 August 2021 was in the middle of the present outbreak, on a day when there happened to be no reported cases, sandwiched between days of multiple cases on either side.

The current Victorian incursion actually began on 12 July. In the first 27 days of the present Victorian outbreak, there were 270 community cases.

[roar]

Isn't that just semantics? The important point is that with this variant numbers aren't really going down at a velocity that would suggest that the lockdown will work. Especially when it can fire up again so easily.

[Pies4shaw]

No, it isn't. I think it is despicable when journalists just try to find a point at which they can cut data to provide spurious support for a specific argument. It is possible to make all sorts of intelligent arguments in favour of ending or ameliorating the extent of lockdowns that don't depend on lying about the data.

[What'sinaname]

120 cases (unconfirmed) today