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AN_Inkling
Joined: 06 Oct 2007
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masoncox wrote: | AN_Inkling wrote: |
Your goal stats are incomplete as they don't separate set shots. He wasn't a great shot on goal, but far from bad. A bit like Pendles. His field kicking was excellent. Efficiency stats, even if they were available, would mean nothing just as they don't mean much for Langdon or Frost. |
Not quite right.
Disposal efficiency overall includes handballs and kicks that travel a small distance. So if you handball 5 m and kick 20m then your stats are going to be high. It is why Frost and Langdon have good stats. Buckley kicked long and hard which was a rare feat. But did he hit the target on a regular basis. This is the unanswered question. Proper stats if recorded right would answer this question. |
Not quite right that overall efficiency stats, like we have for Langdon and you used in your OP, would mean nothing? No, they definitely would mean nothing. They are far too broad and do nothing to take context into account. The eye test is far stronger than any general efficiency stat.
As an example, Dustin Martin's efficiency was at 64.9% this year, though most regard him as a very good kick, one of the best, and certainly better than Frost who's efficiency was often in the high 80s. It's one of the most useless stats in the game without context.
Even more specific efficiency stats (separated for kick and handball, under pressure, not under pressure, rated for difficulty, long or short, rushed or studied, wet or dry conditions) etc. wouldn't have overriding value, as they then go from objective to subjective and move into the realm of opinion rather than statistical fact. The eye test would still rule, though some of these stats could provide supporting evidence. _________________ Well done boys! |
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Piesnchess
piesnchess
Joined: 09 Jun 2008
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WE all have our opinions of Bucks the COACH, but its pretty hard to try and sully his playing record, and how he played the game, by amateurs who have never played at the top level, is a bit rough, to say the very least.! _________________ Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich.
Chess and Vodka are born brothers. - Russian proverb. |
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5 from the wing on debut
Joined: 27 May 2016
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Piesnchess wrote: | WE all have our opinions of Bucks the COACH, but its pretty hard to try and sully his playing record, and how he played the game, by amateurs who have never played at the top level, is a bit rough, to say the very least.! |
What has playing a game at the highest level got to do with analysing the game?
AFL has always been a slow to change, inbred, backwards environment, but that is slowly staring to change. We are still light years away from the big sports though, for reasons including the traditional thought process behind your comment. |
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droversdog65
Joined: 27 Nov 2014
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Those that bought the FIGJAM candy are addicted to it and won't miss any opportunity to belittle him - regardless of facts. |
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Mortimore 39ers
Joined: 15 Oct 2017
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I'm 48. My old man took me to my first game when I was about 10. I was hooked. Since that day I've either attended, listened to or watched (tv live or replay) just about every Collingwood game played. I've followed my heroes; Kink (The Incredible Hulk!), Picken, Moore, Barham, Shaw, BT, Daics, McGuane, Rocca, Davis, Dids, Swanny over the years but one stands out above all others. Pies or opposition I have never seen a player live that played like Bucks. I passionately believe, even with all the kudos and accolades, he is still the most underrated player of the modern era. And as far as kicking? The guy was a surgeon. |
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Piesnchess
piesnchess
Joined: 09 Jun 2008
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5 from the wing on debut wrote: | Piesnchess wrote: | WE all have our opinions of Bucks the COACH, but its pretty hard to try and sully his playing record, and how he played the game, by amateurs who have never played at the top level, is a bit rough, to say the very least.! |
What has playing a game at the highest level got to do with analysing the game?
AFL has always been a slow to change, inbred, backwards environment, but that is slowly staring to change. We are still light years away from the big sports though, for reasons including the traditional thought process behind your comment. |
ONLY that IF one has played, say, 200 games of AFL, at the peak level, then one might be qualified to pass judgements on Bucks playing abilities, one way, or the other. _________________ Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich.
Chess and Vodka are born brothers. - Russian proverb. |
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RudeBoy
Joined: 28 Nov 2005
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Is the Pope a Catholic? |
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Luigitheunbelievable
Joined: 09 Aug 2017 Location: Ringwood. Victoria. Australia
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Hi Folks.
And he was regularly booed by the opposition fans.
(Not the Pope), Bucks.
Regards. _________________ Side by side we stick together. |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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AN_Inkling wrote: | masoncox wrote: |
Not quite right.
Disposal efficiency overall includes handballs and kicks that travel a small distance. So if you handball 5 m and kick 20m then your stats are going to be high. It is why Frost and Langdon have good stats. <snip>. Proper stats if recorded right would answer this question. |
Not quite right that overall efficiency stats, like we have for Langdon and you used in your OP, would mean nothing? No, they definitely would mean nothing. They are far too broad and do nothing to take context into account. The eye test is far stronger than any general efficiency stat.
As an example, Dustin Martin's efficiency was at 64.9% this year, though most regard him as a very good kick, one of the best, and certainly better than Frost who's efficiency was often in the high 80s. It's one of the most useless stats in the game without context.
Even more specific efficiency stats (separated for kick and handball, under pressure, not under pressure, rated for difficulty, long or short, rushed or studied, wet or dry conditions) etc. wouldn't have overriding value, as they then go from objective to subjective and move into the realm of opinion rather than statistical fact. The eye test would still rule, though some of these stats could provide supporting evidence. |
I'm really surprised by this claim about Martin. I myself think he's a very mediocre kick, and I haven't come across anything to suggest (m)any observers think he's very good. Given the endless comparisons of him and Dangerfield this year, I'd think this would have been mentioned if it were believed to be a major difference. (Dangerfield's disposal efficiency is known to be poor.)
My impression of Dusty's kicking is based on seeing things like the following:
https://twitter.com/AFL/status/906125261019553793/video/1 .
I think people watching are perhaps so distracted by the classic dont-argue, the run, and the resulting end-to-end goal that they don't dwell much on the horrible kick (landing between two Geelong players, not spinning properly, although executed under no physical pressure).
I actually think this is an example of "the eye test" and stats being in agreement. e.g. Dusty led the AFL in turnovers (>120, I think) and turnovers per disposal, and his kick rating was average.
Even something like disposal efficiency, which we agree is very crude, can tell something. One wouldn't want to compare his numbers to a backman, but if you compared them to those of similar types, e.g. Dangerfield and Cotchin, it might be revealing. |
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droversdog65
Joined: 27 Nov 2014
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K wrote: | AN_Inkling wrote: | masoncox wrote: |
Not quite right.
Disposal efficiency overall includes handballs and kicks that travel a small distance. So if you handball 5 m and kick 20m then your stats are going to be high. It is why Frost and Langdon have good stats. <snip>. Proper stats if recorded right would answer this question. |
Not quite right that overall efficiency stats, like we have for Langdon and you used in your OP, would mean nothing? No, they definitely would mean nothing. They are far too broad and do nothing to take context into account. The eye test is far stronger than any general efficiency stat.
As an example, Dustin Martin's efficiency was at 64.9% this year, though most regard him as a very good kick, one of the best, and certainly better than Frost who's efficiency was often in the high 80s. It's one of the most useless stats in the game without context.
Even more specific efficiency stats (separated for kick and handball, under pressure, not under pressure, rated for difficulty, long or short, rushed or studied, wet or dry conditions) etc. wouldn't have overriding value, as they then go from objective to subjective and move into the realm of opinion rather than statistical fact. The eye test would still rule, though some of these stats could provide supporting evidence. |
I'm really surprised by this claim about Martin. I myself think he's a very mediocre kick, and I haven't come across anything to suggest (m)any observers think he's very good. Given the endless comparisons of him and Dangerfield this year, I'd think this would have been mentioned if it were believed to be a major difference. (Dangerfield's disposal efficiency is known to be poor.)
My impression of Dusty's kicking is based on seeing things like the following:
https://twitter.com/AFL/status/906125261019553793/video/1 .
I think people watching are perhaps so distracted by the classic dont-argue, the run, and the resulting end-to-end goal that they don't dwell much on the horrible kick (landing between two Geelong players, not spinning properly, although executed under no physical pressure).
I actually think this is an example of "the eye test" and stats being in agreement. e.g. Dusty led the AFL in turnovers (>120, I think) and turnovers per disposal, and his kick rating was average.
Even something like disposal efficiency, which we agree is very crude, can tell something. One wouldn't want to compare his numbers to a backman, but if you compared them to those of similar types, e.g. Dangerfield and Cotchin, it might be revealing. |
Don't know about the kicking but I'd cop that for the physical and emotional intimidation Martin forces oppositions to deal with. |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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droversdog65 wrote: | K wrote: | AN_Inkling wrote: | masoncox wrote: |
... Proper stats if recorded right would answer this question. |
... Even more specific efficiency stats (separated for kick and handball, under pressure, not under pressure, rated for difficulty, long or short, rushed or studied, wet or dry conditions) etc. wouldn't have overriding value, as they then go from objective to subjective and move into the realm of opinion rather than statistical fact. The eye test would still rule, though some of these stats could provide supporting evidence. |
I'm really surprised by this claim about Martin. I myself think he's a very mediocre kick, and I haven't come across anything to suggest (m)any observers think he's very good. ...
Even something like disposal efficiency, which we agree is very crude, can tell something. One wouldn't want to compare his numbers to a backman, but if you compared them to those of similar types, e.g. Dangerfield and Cotchin, it might be revealing. |
Don't know about the kicking but I'd cop that for the physical and emotional intimidation Martin forces oppositions to deal with. |
Yes, a great player, as is Dangerfield, which goes to show that there are many ways one can be a dominant footballer.
The stats compiled nowadays do reveal a lot, I think. This year, Dusty was average and Paddy was worse than average in kicking. The interesting thing is that one can see patterns in the kicking of different types of players. This year, Michael Johnson, Adam Tomlinson, Heater, Christian Salem, Howie, and Crisp typically had what I'll call "easy" kicks, i.e. expected success around 60%. (Crisp did worse than the expected rate , and the others better.) This suggests to me that the playmaker defenders tend to have easy kicks.
Pendlebury, Ablett, and Josh Kelly seem to have had medium-difficulty kicks, i.e. with expected hit rate a little under 50%. (The first two did better than the expected rate.)
Dangerfield and Josh Kennedy had hard kicks --- the expected success rate for Paddy's kicks was under 40% (and he did even worse than this). This matches what we know about Paddy's style of play.
The stats guys didn't produce this sort of data in the 90s and 00s, but we can estimate what sort of kicking efficiency should be regarded as good based on the modern data for similar types of players. And I'm sure they had kicking efficiency data then, although we don't seem to have free access to it. |
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i hate carlton
Joined: 05 May 2014
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Buckley was an excellent kick, and stats cannot capture his pivotal influence on so many games. Scooping a ball and kicking it to the forward 50, bursting through a crowded paddock, kicking on the run. Match winning goals. Influence on a game.
My favourite player since Daicos. _________________ ___________________
He's kicking pineapples!
My favourite nicks thread (Laugh at Carlscum): http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/viewtopic.php?t=66021&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0 |
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E
Joined: 05 May 2010
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Of course he was a brilliant kick. one of the best ever kicks the game has ever seen. He is by any measure one of the best 10 players to have played in his generation (many argue that he was one of 4 greats in his generation - Carey, Bucks, Voss and Hird). And if you asked what was the best thing about his game, the bulk of people would put right up there as his best quality - his kicking! so if one of the best was one of the best due mainly to his kicking, i think you get the point.
back in thew dark days, the collingwood kick in game plan was as follows -
1. Bucks would take the kick in and kick a perfect 60 meter pass onto the chest of a player.
2. that player then held the ball for long enough so Bucks vcould get in position to get it back and then deliver the ball to the forwards.
It really was our only avenue to goals given how ABSOLUTELY SHITHOUSE we were back then.
******************
Finally, an observation about those who are crapping on about Dustin Martin's efficiency stats. i dont have a view on Martin's kicking, since i dont pay much attention to the opposition. However, even blind freddy knows that due to his ball winning ability, he is likely to get the ball in situations where disposal is not the point. Situations where lesser players wouldn't even get the ball. I suspect kid danger is exactly the same. You know, those plays where he busts a pack, gets the ball and moves it forward by any means.
To then criticize the accuracy of that type of possession is nonsense and the reason why stats are a largely useless exercise.
An efficiency stat is only of any value if you find a way to compare how many of those kicks are contested possessions vs uncontested possessions. So many variables. This is the reason why stats in the hands of the wrong person, are largely useless. The idea that you would compare the efficiency stats of the best hard ball and high traffic footballer in the league to a deep in defense back-man is too preposterous even for words. _________________ Ohhh, the Premiership's a cakewalk ....... |
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think positive
Side By Side
Joined: 30 Jun 2005 Location: somewhere
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RudeBoy wrote: | Is the Pope a Catholic? |
No idea but damn sure Bucks was a brilliant kick! As someone else said, a surgeon. _________________ You cant fix stupid, turns out you cant quarantine it either! |
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Pies2016
Joined: 12 Sep 2014
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Well I would take a RELEVANT statistic derived from a large sample base over an ill informed agenda driven opinion any day.
...... but that's just my opinion.
Power based explosive mid fielders are becoming the new flavour in the AFL.
Their focus is on winning the ball against the odds and just banging the ball forward without the necessarily the need for pin point precision.
If you are a club that has created a modified forward line that revolves it's whole ethic around ball retention, then it doesn't matter how the ball gets there. It just has to get down there somehow.
And if you think that's opinion, then look at the RELEVANT stats of the last two premiers relating to the time the ball was spent in their forward line compared to the opposition. Both teams rewrote the record books.
It's also why we invested in Mayne but it just didn't work out for us. |
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