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HAL
Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.
Joined: 17 Mar 2003
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Take it easy. It seemed like an accident. |
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BazBoy
Joined: 11 Sep 2014
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Time will tell —old say “You have to speculate to accumulate “
Silverware that is _________________ I'm not arguing--just explaining why i am right |
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Johnno75
Joined: 07 Oct 2010 Location: Wantirna
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I’d be pissed if we don’t dominate Centre clearances next year with our midfield and the 6-6-6 rule. _________________ Human behavioural studies suggest people who use a lot of swear words tend to be more honest & trustworthy. |
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mabo
Joined: 24 Apr 2016
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I still am of the opinion that this was a mistake and that we've paid overs for a player who will be 29 y/o at the start of the season and has a history of soft tissue injuries and who has only played a full season twice in his ten years of AFL footy - Wells 2.0.
However, I'm consoling myself by trying to look at both the Beams exit/return trades as a whole as we look like we come out ahead that way. |
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Albert Parker
Joined: 13 Dec 2012
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How I see things on balance
We were close to winning a premiership this year. We have a real window in the next 2 seasons.
We did so this year without several of our stars for much of the season.
Plus side
We have retained our stars - Moore, Elliott, Dunn (Shaz) and can inject them in to our side from the GF, next season. Retained Langdon too
We have added a star mid in Beams and some depth in key positions (Roughead)
We will likely add some future talent in Quaynor (would likely have used pick 18 on him) and Kelly & the Irish boys.
Foregone
We have foregone a potential future star in 2019 with our first pick, but he'd have taken time to mature most likely.
Good as Grundy, as an example of a late first round pick that has excelled, even he wasn't offering a great deal in his first 2 seasons, when our window is clearly open.
We have only lost Fasolo and will delist some other players of our own accord.
We have no major losses.
Of our major opponents in this trade period
Richmond had added Lynch, but conceded a lot of their depth (Conca, Miles, Ellis, Lloyd). They had few unavailable in the prelim to add in.
WCE have missed on Tim Kelly, that helps and lost Lycett. Naitanui and Gaff can strengthen them.
Hawks are not so close to us I don't think. Gain Wingard, lose Burton and Scully may not be much help next season
Giants have lost Shiel, Lobb, Scully which weakens them
Dees add May and lose Hogan
We've lost no-one we weren't happy to. We've added a top-class midfielder, we will have a bit for the future. We have a few key players to return.
We have an improved culture.
We are enough.
Floreat Pica _________________ One team, one dream - the Pies and this year's premiership |
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melliot
Joined: 07 Apr 2006 Location: Bendigo
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We've paid overs for Beams imo. A 29 year old, A grade mid, that can have long stints injured. It doesn't satisfy a real need, and paid heavily for it. Hopefully we maximize the advantage on field to make it worthwhile.qq
Understand that we are going for broke. But got some reservations about it.
In assessing the 2018 outcomes, need to factor in that with a likely deficit in draft points from 2018 going into 2019 and our 1st rd traded out, that we basically have no draft pick power in 2019. We'll start 2019 in the 3rd round. |
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BazBoy
Joined: 11 Sep 2014
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And that must be our motto “Side by Side We are Enough “ _________________ I'm not arguing--just explaining why i am right |
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RudeBoy
Joined: 28 Nov 2005
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Unless I'm mistaken, if we had kept our pick 18, we would most likely have had to use it to draft Quainor, whereas now we can get him with our 2nd pick. So effectively, we have really only given up pick 18 or thereabouts in 2019. That seems like a fantastic deal in my book. |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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^ No, Rudey, the 18 pick is worth quite a lot more points than the 2nd and 3rd picks combined. If e.g. a bid came for IQ at pick 15, that would roughly be covered by pick 18 on its own after the 20% discount. Now, the bleeding would go beyond the 2nd and 3rd picks. |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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Okay, I hope these are the right pick numbers...
The Pies' Beams invoice:
2x (pretend) pick 18: 2 x 985 = 1970
+ pick 56: 194
- pick 41: (412)
- pick 44: (362)
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Total paid: 1390
For comparison: pick 10 is 1395.
Conclusion:
As long as we make the 2019 GF, we have sort of paid the equivalent of pick 10 for Beams.
If we had this year's pick 10, would you have been happy to trade it for Beams? |
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Albert Parker
Joined: 13 Dec 2012
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^ ^^
With live trading, we can probably turn pick 56 (fasolo comp) into a pick for points (say 58?) to make it more valuable for the purposes for which we need it?
Throw in the picks in the 40's and the discounts and we'll be pretty close.
Next year we'll definitely have a slim hand at the draft (unless someone of value leaves) and may have to target a Free Agent.
More than one way to skin a cat.
I am not convinced that Quaynor bids come that early. Twomey gets seduced by the prospect that they are guaranteed to get picked up I think and overrates them. He didn't have a strong finish to the season and didn't make the TAC Team of the Year. There are also a bunch of South Australians who will rate ahead of him this year. They won the Carnival easily and have done well at SANFL level. Adelaide and Port will be focussed on picking them up with their picks before 18 you'd imagine.
Christian Doerre (Knightmare) who does a mock draft for Fox Sports doesn't have Quaynor in his top 25 and he is a mad Pies supporter. _________________ One team, one dream - the Pies and this year's premiership |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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K wrote: | Okay, I hope these are the right pick numbers...
The Pies' Beams invoice:
2x (pretend) pick 18: 2 x 985 = 1970
+ pick 56: 194
- pick 41: (412)
- pick 44: (362)
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Total paid: 1390
For comparison: pick 10 is 1395.
Conclusion:
As long as we make the 2019 GF, we have sort of paid the equivalent of pick 10 for Beams.
If we had this year's pick 10, would you have been happy to trade it for Beams? |
I would certainly have traded 2013's pick 10 for him without blinking. |
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Pies2016
Joined: 12 Sep 2014
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RudeBoy wrote: | Unless I'm mistaken, if we had kept our pick 18, we would most likely have had to use it to draft Quainor, whereas now we can get him with our 2nd pick. So effectively, we have really only given up pick 18 or thereabouts in 2019. That seems like a fantastic deal in my book. |
Not at all. My “ preference “ was to go to the draft with a pick that would come in before Quaynors name was read out.
Simply by trading down our # pick 18 by offering up a future pick ( likely first ) and then receive more points back in 2018 to secure Q and K.
I was concerned about an aging mid field and I preferred to go with a likely 10 year mid ( possibly Stocker or Caldwell at 14 / 15 ) and then still pick up Q and K.
There were two options open to Collingwood ( well three if you include doing nothing in trading )
One strategy is to bank on maximising the now ( totally justified if we win a flag with Beams in it )
The other strategy was to set us up for long term sustained success and hope that a flag looks after itself along the way.
Time will tell but my opinion is that Hine would have nailed a beauty with a first round pick before Quaynor in this draft.
The club would have considered both strategies long and hard and I’m happy to bow to their better judgement ...... unless Beams doesn’t play in another premiership with us. |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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^ P16, would you take someone likely available at pick 10 instead of Beams, or would you trade pick 10 (on its own, if you had it) for Beams? |
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Pies2016
Joined: 12 Sep 2014
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K wrote: | ^ P16, would you take someone likely available at pick 10 instead of Beams, or would you trade pick 10 (on its own, if you had it) for Beams? |
If we had pick 10 in this draft ( and we still secure Q and K ) and the trade in total was Beams for # 10, I would pick Beams. You couldn’t knock back Beams for pick 10 only.
As the actual trade eventuated, we have given up two late first rounders and got points back.
This means we have now become very “ speculative “ in the 2019 draft, albeit we may yet trade out a quality player in 2019 to improve our draft hand.
Again, I can’t say enough that the club obviously know more than I do but I would hope they thought long and hard before deciding not to participate in the pointy end of two consecutive drafts for a 29 year old ( next season )
I accept that Quaynor comes as a bargain but we could have also picked up an 18 year old quality mid in the same draft as well.
Beams is an A grader, so I’m certainly not bitter and twisted but I just can’t help but think Hine could have nailed a ripper in this draft. |
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