Champions League Final 2018: Real Madrid v Liverpool

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Who wins?

Poll ended at Sat May 26, 2018 11:05 pm

Real Madrid
2
67%
Liverpool
1
33%
 
Total votes: 3

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Jezza
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Post by Jezza »

Liverpool's the sole team remaining from all the semi finalists of last year.
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Post by K »

Well, that must be a small tick for them.

If they finish the EPL 2nd, as the bookies think, but win the Champion's League, it'll be some accomplishment.
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Post by K »

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Post by Jezza »

English sides were very strong in the Champions League during the mid to late 2000s, but UEFA always hated it for some reason.

I've grown bit tired of the Barcelona, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich monopoly of the past 10 years. Outside the three main sides, only Inter Milan and Chelsea have won the Champions League in the past 10 years.
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Post by K »

FiveThirtyEight's title predictions:

Man. City 33%
Liverpool 25%
Barcelona 22%
Juventus 9%
Ajax 5%
Tottenham 3%
Man. United 2%
Porto 1%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/so ... ns-league/
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Post by K »

UK bookies' title odds (& implied chances):

Man. City 3.25 [27.8%]
Juventus 4.33 [20.9%]
Barcelona 4.50 [20.1%]
Liverpool 5.00 [18.1%]
Man. United 17.00 [5.3%]
Tottenham 23.00 [3.9%]
Ajax 34.00 [2.7%]
Porto 67.00 [1.3%]

(Margin: 9.7%)

Juventus is the one big disagreement between the bookies and FiveThirtyEight.
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Post by K »

"Juventus forward Cristiano Ronaldo has been fined 20,000 euros by UEFA for appearing to make an obscene gesture while celebrating his side's Champions League victory over Atletico Madrid." (DPA)

[A crotch gesture.]
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Post by K »

"The big thing that could cost Liverpool is the Champions League.

The longer they are in Europe, the more I think they are likely to drop Premier League points.

At full strength, when you compare their strongest XI to City's, there is not much between them, but Klopp's bench is simply not as strong as City's.

Liverpool will have injuries or even just fatigue to deal with in the final few weeks of the season and for me, that is when they might just fall short."


https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/47606224
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Post by K »

PSG considering legal action against Manchester United legend Evra - sources

http://www.espn.com.au/football/paris-s ... ra-sources



But I have no idea what legal action they could possibly take. Evra's quoted statements are very vulgar, but the only threat sounds like his "I'm going to slap you in the face" comment to Rothen.

PSG's statement claims Evra made "homophobic insults towards the club, its representatives, and its former player". Was that something that wasn't quoted? The quote just has Evra saying that PSG was beaten by boys who lacked reproductive capabilities.
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Post by K »

In Europe, a Bitter Battle Between Clubs and Leagues Is Taking Shape

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/01/spor ... eague.html

"Confronted with what they consider a power play by a group of wealthy soccer clubs to promote the Champions League at the expense of national championships, representatives of Europe’s domestic leagues will meet in Lisbon this week to discuss a strategy to protect what they say is decades of tradition, and a basic sense of fairness.
...

The Bundesliga’s chief executive called weekend Champions League matches a “red line” that could not be crossed. English officials similarly declared the idea a nonstarter.
...

Javier Tebas, the frequently outspoken head of Spain’s top league, said the proposal to restructure continental competitions for the benefit of the small group of rich clubs that already dominate them would spell doom for soccer in large parts of Europe. The changes would, Tebas said, allow the wealthiest clubs to widen the massive talent and resource gap they already enjoy, and tear away the fabric of the sport’s traditions."
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Post by K »

Tuesday 9 April
Liverpool 2-0 Porto
Tottenham 1-0 Manchester City

FiveThirtyEight's title predictions have changed:

Liverpool 30%
Barcelona 25%
Man. City 21%
Juventus 8%
Tottenham 8%
Ajax 6%
Man. United 2%
Porto <1%

Man. City has dropped. (Tottenham has risen, but it's still small.)
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Post by K »

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Post by Jezza »

Great match between Man City and Tottenham this morning with Spurs going through on the away goals rule.

Now it's down to four teams:
- Barcelona v Liverpool
- Tottenham v Ajax
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Post by K »

FiveThirtyEight's title predictions changed relatively little after the opening two QF games, but now they've changed a fair bit:

Liverpool 35%
Barcelona 34%
Ajax 16%
Tottenham 15%

Ajax has shot up, of course.
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Post by K »

UK bookies:

Barcelona 2.50 [~37%]
Liverpool 3.50 [~26%]
Tottenham 5.00 [~18%]
Ajax 5.00 [~18%]

(Bookies' margin: ~8%.)

The punters have much less faith in Liverpool than FiveThirtyEight.
Above, we can see FiveThirtyEight was much more cluey than punters about Juventus.
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