2018-2019 EPL Discussion Thread

[Jezza]

Latest Results:

Saturday April 20 2019:
Manchester City 1-0 Tottenham Hotspur
AFC Bournemouth 0-1 Fulham
Huddersfield Town 1-2 Watford
West Ham United 2-2 Leicester City
Wolverhampton Wanderers 0-0 Brighton & Hove Albion
Newcastle United 3-1 Southampton

Sunday April 21 2019:
Everton 4-0 Manchester United
Arsenal 2-3 Crystal Palace
Cardiff City 0-2 Liverpool

Monday April 22 2019:
Chelsea 2-2 Burnley

Tuesday April 23 2019:
Tottenham 1-0 Brighton & Hove Albion
Watford 1-1 Southampton

Wednesday April 24 2019:
Wolverhampton Wanderers 3-1 Arsenal
Manchester United 0-2 Manchester City

The Ladder:
1. Man City 89 - Played 35
2. Liverpool 88 - Played 35
3. Tottenham 70 - Played 35
4. Chelsea 67 - Played 35
----------------------
5. Arsenal 66 - Played 35
6. Man Utd 64 - Played 35
7. Wolves 51 - Played 35
8. Watford 50 - Played 35
9. Everton 49 - Played 35
10. Leicester 48 - Played 35
11. West Ham 43 - Played 35
12. Crystal Palace 42 - Played 35
13. Newcastle 41 - Played 35
14. Bournemouth 41 - Played 35
15. Burnley 40 - Played 35
16. Southampton 37 - Played 35
17. Brighton 34 - Played 35
-----------------------
18. Cardiff 31 - Played 35
19. Fulham 23 - Played 35
20. Huddersfield 14 - Played 35

[K]

Bookies' odds:

Man. City ~76%
Liverpool ~24%

FiveThirtyEight's predictions:

Man. City 73%
Liverpool 27%

Man. City have got over what looked like their biggest hurdles.

[K]

"City is 25 points ahead of United, Liverpool 24. Both have coherent recruitment strategies, unified visions of what they want to be. Both play a modern, thrilling style of soccer, tactically intelligent but visually compelling. United matched City here, for 45 minutes or so, but only through gritting its teeth and straining its sinews; it could not live with the club that has existed, as the saying goes, forever in its shadow for sheer class.

There is another team that went through all this, that wallowed in its history as the world moved on, that stuck to outdated traditions and refused to change, no matter how mountainous the evidence that it needed to. Manchester United is a long way from matching Liverpool’s 29 years without a title. But it is just as far from ending its own six-year wait."

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/24/spor ... rpool.html

[Jezza]

Weekend Matches:

Friday April 26 2019:
Liverpool v Huddersfield Town - 20:00

Saturday April 27 2019:
Tottenham Hotspur v West Ham United - 12:30
Crystal Palace v Everton - 15:00
Fulham v Cardiff City - 15:00
Southampton v AFC Bournemouth - 15:00
Watford v Wolverhampton Wanderers - 15:00
Brighton & Hove Albion v Newcastle United - 17:30

Sunday April 28 2019:
Leicester City v Arsenal - 12:00
Burnley v Manchester City - 14:05
Manchester United v Chelsea - 16:30

All local times.

[K]

After Liverpool's 5-0 pounding of Huddersfield, their goal difference is surprisingly close to Man. City's, but the points make that unlikely to be a factor. They need a huge upset so Man. City drops 2 or 3 points.

[K]

[K]

FiveThirtyEight gives Burnley a tiny 7% chance of beating Man. City, but a slightly larger 14% chance of holding the draw. Chelsea is given a 41% chance of beating Man. United, a 34% chance of a loss and a 26% chance of drawing. (They don't show where the rounding error went. ) That's one of several good examples of "all three results are possible". (Brighton-Newcastle is 37/32/30.)

Update: Brighton & Newcastle duly played a 1-1 draw, with 9 shots each, 49%-51% possession, & 82%-81% pass accuracy.

[K]

HT Burnley 0-0 Man. City

Man. City dominating possession (69%) & pass accuracy (86%-62%), but with only 2 out of 7 shots on target.

Google says the live win probability is now Man. City 71%, draw 22%, Burnley 7%.

Media: "City have flattered to deceive, with Burnley keeping them at bay and squandering perhaps the best chance of the first 47 minutes. Chris Wood had seconds to react after being played through on goal but Ederson stormed out to smother the ball."

[K]

Man. City goal (63).

"Matt Lowton thought he had cleared off the line but the goal is awarded."

Google's live win probability shoots up to 92%.

[K]

[K]

Bookies' odds:

Man. City ~79%
Liverpool ~21%

FiveThirtyEight's predictions:

Man. City 81%
Liverpool 19%


After Man. Utd's draw with Chelsea and Arsenal's loss, FiveThirtyEight's predictions for UCL qualification:

Tottenham 96%
Chelsea 73%
Arsenal 26%
Man. United 6%

[Jezza]

Latest Results:

Friday April 26 2019:
Liverpool 5-0 Huddersfield Town

Saturday April 27 2019:
Tottenham Hotspur 0-1 West Ham United
Crystal Palace 0-0 Everton
Fulham 1-0 Cardiff City
Southampton 3-3 AFC Bournemouth
Watford 1-2 Wolverhampton Wanderers
Brighton & Hove Albion 1-1 Newcastle United

Sunday April 28 2019:
Leicester City 3-0 Arsenal
Burnley 0-1 Manchester City
Manchester United 1-1 Chelsea

The Ladder:
1. Man City 92 - Played 36
2. Liverpool 91 - Played 36
3. Tottenham 70 - Played 36
4. Chelsea 68 - Played 36
----------------------
5. Arsenal 66 - Played 36
6. Man Utd 65 - Played 36
7. Wolves 54 - Played 36
8. Leicester 51 - Played 36
9. Everton 50 - Played 36
10. Watford 50 - Played 36
11. West Ham 46 - Played 36
12. Crystal Palace 43 - Played 36
13. Newcastle 42 - Played 36
14. Bournemouth 42 - Played 36
15. Burnley 40 - Played 36
16. Southampton 38 - Played 36
17. Brighton 35 - Played 36
-----------------------
18. Cardiff 31 - Played 36
19. Fulham 26 - Played 36
20. Huddersfield 14 - Played 36

[Jezza]

Weekend Matches:

Friday May 3 2019:
Everton v Burnley - 20:00

Saturday May 4 2019:
AFC Bournemouth v Tottenham Hotspur - 12:30
West Ham United v Southampton - 15:00
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Fulham - 15:00
Cardiff City v Crystal Palace - 17:30
Newcastle United v Liverpool - 19:45

Sunday May 5 2019:
Chelsea v Watford - 14:00
Huddersfield Town v Manchester United - 14:00
Arsenal v Brighton & Hove Albion - 16:30

Monday May 6 2019:
Manchester City v Leicester City - 20:00

All local times.

[K]

[Pies4shaw]

Everyone loves a loser.