AFLW Round 9 - Crows vs Pies

[Dark Beanie]

Last game of the H&A season and arguably the most important game of the season for both clubs.

Sunday 28 March @ 12.40pm (AEDT). Venue Norwood Oval.

The match will be broadcast live on Channel 7 from 12:00pm (AEDT) or via the AFLW website.
Updates also via the Collingwood Womens Twitter https://twitter.com/collingwoodaflw?lang=en

Match preview:

https://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/news/8 ... ch-preview

[Presti35]

Win and its top 2, a week off and a home Prelim Final.

[23 YIPPEE!!!]

Yep win an we are in. The home prelim played at vic park would be great. Plus a week off too giving some time to bring back some of the injured stars too.

Pies to win tomorrow say a nice 10 point win.

[Dark Beanie]

Much as I hate to say it, thank you North.
Defeated Freo by a point.

A win tomorrow guarantees top 2 finish, a close loss and the Pies could still sneak top 2 via percentage.

[23 YIPPEE!!!]

Defiantely helps us now that freo lost and now for melbourne to get over brisbane and we could actually finish top of the ladder the match v crows is a must win for the pies.

The dees are going well v lions currently too its played at casey fields too

[Ronnie McKeowns boots]

Dees win...if Im not mistaken, that wraps up the top two for us, unless we lost by enough to drop down to 195%

[23 YIPPEE!!!]

Win v crows and we take top spot its that simple

[Pies4shaw]

Dees win...if Im not mistaken, that wraps up the top two for us, unless we lost by enough to drop down to 195%

Not quite. Adelaide have a percentage of 210.4 and would be level with us on points, if they won. Obviously, it would depend upon a very close loss to Adelaide, at worst.

[Didler]

Following North beating Fremantle and Melbourne beating the Lions yesterday , our girls are equal top of the ladder on 28 points with Melbourne and Brisbane with 32 more % than Brisbane and we have todays game yet to play at 12:40 pm

If we win we finish on top and if we lose but not enough to lose 32% we finish on top

In the final 6 top 2 equals a week off so go hard girls you can do it

[Pies4shaw]

^ No, for the reasons I stated in my previous post, that is quite wrong. If we lose, Adelaide will have the same points as us and are only 7% behind before the game.

For example, I have modelled what happens to our and Adelaide's percentages if they beat us by 5 points with a score of 55 to 50. The consequence would be that our percentage would drop to 184.6 and Adelaide's would drop - but only to 190.3 (that's a consequence of Adelaide having scored 70 points more for and having had more scored against it, so that the impact of the remaining game will inevitably be less on Adelaide's percentage than on ours). If that happened, we'd finish 3rd, with Adelaide on top and Brisbane 2nd.

A 1-point loss, 31 to 30, would see us just retain an edge of about 3/4 of a percent on Adelaide and would also see us about 1.5 percent ahead of Brisbane. If we lost 41 to 40, though, we'd finish 3rd on percentage.

The message is that we must win - the arithmetic is too precarious, otherwise. Given that our percentage will also drop with a close win - and can drop substantially (the higher the score in a close win, the further our percentage would drop) - a solid victory is what is required.

[Ronnie McKeowns boots]

Fair enough, thanks for running the maths....short seasons do funny things to percentage

[Pies4shaw]

You're welcome. I think what this shows is that they need to adjust the finals format - it can't be right that a trivial change in scores should have such a massive potential impact on the chances of winning a flag - for all of the top 3 teams. I think percentage matters way too much in the AFLW.

[Dark Beanie]

Team for todays game:

B: R.Schleicher 18 S.Casey 22
HB: A.Brazill 10 S.Livingstone 12 A.Porter 9
C: S.Chiocci - C 17 J.Lambert 13 J.Lin 20
HF: A.Sheridan 14 S.Alexander 24 M.Cann 25
F: C.Molloy 2 A.Newman 16
Foll: S.Norder 1 B.Davey 3 B.Bonnici 8
I/C: B.Smith 19 E.Fowler 15 T.Brown 26 S.Rowe 7
Emerg: M.Shevlin 35 K.Stratton 41

In: B.Smith
Out: K.Stratton (omitted)

Kirsty Stratton listed as emergency but played in the VFLW yesterday, didn't travel to SA.

[Pies4shaw]

Collingwood trails 2.2 to 1.1 at quarter time.

Lambert kicked the goal.

[SteveH67]

Umpiring all one way to the crows, terrible so far.

The team is way off today too, so many mistakes.

Could cost them Top2