Coronavirus 4 - Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

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eddiesmith
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Post by eddiesmith »

What'sinaname wrote:
Jezza wrote:I'm worried stage 5 restrictions are coming.

Hope I'm wrong.
Wow. Shopping once a week. No takeaways or deliveries.

I'm doing a massive hoard shop tomorrow
Good luck, the shops will probably have already been stripped.

After the experiences of panic buying last year, banning takeaway and limiting shopping is just guaranteed to be nothing less than a complete disaster.

But also getting every person down at the shops at the exact same time tomorrow just screams multiple mass spreading events and this reaching NSW levels within a week...
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Woods Of Ypres
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Post by Woods Of Ypres »

agree they haven't thought this out very well.
will be an absolute shit show at your local supermarket tomorrow

people screeching over toilet paper and pasta :roll:
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Post by swoop42 »

No reason whatsoever for people to go stripping supermarket shelves.

Honestly, how long does it take for the message to get through to some that people will always be allowed to buy food and other essentials and the supply lines will be kept open.
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Pies4shaw
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Post by Pies4shaw »

Dave The Man wrote:
What'sinaname wrote:Article on the UK strategy

https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/wh ... a168a3a3b6

"Pleasingly, reopening did not lead to a spike in reported coronavirus cases. In fact, there was a drop in the days after Freedom Day that left epidemiologists scratching their heads."
That because they where about 70% Vaccinated when the Opened
It's actually because they were coming off the back of a massive 4-week ramp in cases occasioned by increased gatherings during the European Championships. Cases dropped off after 17 July, having peaked exactly 5 days after the Final loss to Italy and dropped rapidly on the rolling averages until 3 August. Since 3 August, cases have steadily risen and are over 30,000 per day, up about 20% from the 3 August low. Deaths have continued to rise steadily since 3 June (3-day rolling average of 3) and are presently on a rolling 3-day average of 132 per day - 44 times the 3 June low. Thus, many more people have died in the last fortnight in the UK than have died in Australia during the entire pandemic.

It's critical to analyse the figures, not just rely on what journalists who don't understand them say.
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Pies4shaw
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Post by Pies4shaw »

Dave The Man wrote:
Jezza wrote:
Dave The Man wrote: That because they where about 70% Vaccinated when the Opened
No they weren't. They're only about 60% fully vaccinated at the moment.

Freedom Day occurred when the UK was 53% fully vaccinated among the entire population. I do acknowledge the one benefit they have is much higher natural immunity compared to Australia.
So why does England had more Natural Immunity?

Guess because they let Covid get around instead of Hiding People from it
Yes. Estimates in early July were that about 90% of people in the UK had antibodies to the virus, whether from vaccines or from infection.
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eddiesmith
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Post by eddiesmith »

Woods Of Ypres wrote:agree they haven't thought this out very well.
will be an absolute shit show at your local supermarket tomorrow

people screeching over toilet paper and pasta :roll:
Freezers will be completely bare as well, got to stock up on food that will last a week.

I'm hoping they don't go statewide restrictions but regional lockdown is more normal than the extremes Melbourne will get, but I just did a shop last 2 days stocking up on food, not for lockdown but simply seeing things and buying them till I realised I've got enough food for the week!

But that's coming off a week of mostly takeaway and crap so was overdue to buying actual food.

The problem last year was the panic buying didn't really have an impact where I was for a week or 2 after Melbourne was stripped bare, but then it took a lot longer for supply to return as they supplied metro areas first. Now I'm in a much smaller town, if people here panic buy we'll be short for a month probably :(
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Post by Pies4shaw »

You'd best hope you're not surrounded by selfish morons, then.
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Post by Jezza »

****. People are going to lose their minds.
Regional Victoria set to go back into lockdown

Regional Victoria is set to be plunged back into lockdown and Melbourne’s 5.1 million residents are facing a new round of harsher restrictions.

A cut in outside exercise time, a total closure of the construction industry, restricting childcare to essential workers and new travel limits were under consideration by the state government on Friday night.

The Saturday Herald Sun understands a ban on takeaway coffee and food and locking down residents in hot spots until they test negative were also options discussed to fight an emerging third wave of the coronavirus.

Premier Daniel Andrews and ministers were locked in talks on Friday afternoon and had considered making an announcement about new restrictions on Friday night, but decided to wait for new case numbers overnight.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/subscribe/ ... de=premium
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eddiesmith
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Post by eddiesmith »

Pies4shaw wrote:You'd best hope you're not surrounded by selfish morons, then.
Well if they shut takeaway and try and tell people to only shop once a week, what do you think will happen?
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Post by What'sinaname »

Pies4shaw wrote:
Dave The Man wrote:
What'sinaname wrote:Article on the UK strategy

https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/wh ... a168a3a3b6

"Pleasingly, reopening did not lead to a spike in reported coronavirus cases. In fact, there was a drop in the days after Freedom Day that left epidemiologists scratching their heads."
That because they where about 70% Vaccinated when the Opened
It's actually because they were coming off the back of a massive 4-week ramp in cases occasioned by increased gatherings during the European Championships. Cases dropped off after 17 July, having peaked exactly 5 days after the Final loss to Italy and dropped rapidly on the rolling averages until 3 August. Since 3 August, cases have steadily risen and are over 30,000 per day, up about 20% from the 3 August low. Deaths have continued to rise steadily since 3 June (3-day rolling average of 3) and are presently on a rolling 3-day average of 132 per day - 44 times the 3 June low. Thus, many more people have died in the last fortnight in the UK than have died in Australia during the entire pandemic.

It's critical to analyse the figures, not just rely on what journalists who don't understand them say.
Death rates - deaths / new cases UK

Aug 19: 0.4%
July 18: 0.08%
Jan 23: 3.6%
Jan 3: 1.8%

No matter how you look at it, deaths rates are significantly lower with delta than all previous variants.
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Post by Pies4shaw »

^ That simply isn't a valid way of using the data.

As you know, I wasn't commenting on mortality rates, I was commenting on the quote you extracted from the article you linked. Anyone who has a basic understanding of what was actually happening with large-scale movement and congregation of people in the UK from mi-June to mid-July can see a perfectly good explanation for the change in infection rates. That inability to analyse trends in the numbers has been reflected in journalism worldwide. Here, eg, is an article published at the start of August which asserts that the UK Delta outbreak was "collapsing" - again, a stupid point-in-time analysis that applies no subtlety in assessing data changes: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/08 ... -ours.html

As to the deaths, what we do know is that, in the UK, young people are getting severe disease and dying in larger numbers than formerly. That's probably because the disease is now largely a disease of the unvaccinated (the chances of getting COVID in the UK - as distinct from getting it severely - if you are fully vaccinated seem to be of the order of 40% to 50% of the chances if you are unvaccinated) and mostly younger people are getting it. Since COVID - in all its forms - has been mostly deadly in older people, since the UK vaccination program has focused on older people and, in particular, the elderly, and since the data indicates that about 9 times as many people aged 15-24 have been contracting COVID as people aged 75+ (the vast majority of whom are now, of course, vaccinated, there), the death rates are lower. See, eg, https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/227713/ ... er-double/

None of that means that Delta is less dangerous than earlier strains. In fact, it seems to be both more contagious and more likely to cause severe disease or death in young people. What it does mean is that vaccination is critical. It is critical for 2 reasons - first, to protect the presently vulnerable (and, in the UK, that has been largely achieved) and secondly, to drive down the overall numbers who contract and pass on the virus, so that the risk (or, at least, the pace) of newly-emerging variants is reduced. Most vaccination programs around the world have, to date, been reasonably woeful at the second of those things because younger people have been left out of the queue.
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Post by Pies4shaw »

In Victoria:
Reported yesterday: 61 new local cases and 0 new cases acquired overseas.
In addition to 61 local cases reported, there are an additional 16 local cases which were recorded on a rapid PCR testing platform and will be reported in tomorrow’s numbers.
Of the local cases, 22 were in isolation for the duration of their infectious period and 48 are linked to known outbreaks.
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Post by What'sinaname »

77 cases. So it's out and rapidly multiplying. The chance for zero has passed yet Dan, like Buckley has no plan B.
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Post by Pies4shaw »

Australia has no “plan B” because the vaccine rollout has been slow. The only possible strategy, at present, is to lockdown to prevent spread (or, if you prefer, more rapid spread).
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Post by Pies4shaw »

Here we go with an early Victorian presser.

77 new cases - the 16 rapid onsite tests to be in tomorrow's number were all in the Shepparton area.
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