What are our chances ~ 2025

[Presti35]

Hodge says we will be the real deal in 2025 and he knows everything.

[qldmagpie67]

So 13 wins wasn’t quite enough to make finals which tells us a couple things
Fly was right we needed 14 wins
Our brain farts having poor quarters cost us at least 3 wins
We finished off well winning some games
That Sydney 15 minute of uncompetitived play has really come back to haunt us
But at least we learned a few things during the season
Coaches are paid to coach so get them out of the office doing other stuff
We need to work hard on our field kicking and goal kicking that’s been a Achilles heal too often
We may have found a couple younger players worth persisting with in 2025
We need to have a good run of limited injuries because we lack depth

2025 could be a hard year of our veterans form drops again further. We need to be way less reliant on them
It’s time for IQ Josh Nick Maynard Moore McStay McCreery Hill Lipinski Cameron take ownership of the team
Having some veterans around won’t hurt at times but let’s be honest 2025 will be the last season for at least 3 if not 4 or 5 of them
I would like to see the younger players be given more game time, responsibility and preference in selection at the start of 2025.
It’s upto the 22/26yr olds to work over time in the off season building there tanks, skills and game play for the team to move forward

I would like to see the round 1 team in 2025 look like this

B. Dean Maynard Howe
HB. Josh Moore Parker
C. Lipinski Pendles IQ
HF. Nick McStay Hill
F. Elliott Checkers Schulz
R. Cameron Allan JDG
Int. WHE Crisp Cox Allan

Im concerned we are 1 taller bigger body defender short but Frampton isn’t the answer so unless we find one somewhere we have to go with what we have.
Allan and Mitchell as the in and under mids
Parker replaces Noble
Checkers and McStay will make a good combination up forward with our skilled smalls
Put our better ball users outside and we need a injection of speed around the ball as well
Time for IQ McCreery to step up in that role

[shawthing]

We will become the new Ninthmond!

[RudeBoy]

I tend to agree with most of your comments QM67.

We need a genuine refresh if we are to improve next year. The inclusion of Allan, DeMattia, TJ and possibly Smit would be exciting and could genuinely make us Flag contenders again. But first, as you say, the back office stuff needs to be sorted, and fast.

Fwiw (not much I guess), I don't see any futures for Long, Bytel or Macrae. I'm not sure about Krueger or Reef, but it wouldn't surprise me if they were traded, along with Richards. At the end of the day, we'll need to trade out, in order to trade in.

[GreekLunatic]

If we get a fixture like Geelong or Carlton did we will make top 4

[LaurieHolden]

I've five areas in question. There will be more, but these keep recurring.
How much will we benefit from a more favourable 2025 draw?.
With a likely 10th place finish as opposed to 1st, that'll see us play the bottom 10 at a minimum once with a few double ups. Essendon, & I suspect Melbourne twice, then the top 8 teams once.
So, as a result I reckon we'll jag more wins, and we'll have the core of those at the MCG.

How competitive will we be against the top 4?
We're not a side that will roll over. It's not part of our DNA.
The MCG games and crowd will see us take some big scalps.
Our on the road record is second to none and I don't expect that to change.
Gee whiz, Justin Leppitsch as Head of Strategy/Forward Coach and Matthew Boyd returning to support him loom as the key figures to shape this side into 2025.
I'm not viewing Macrae's role is anywhere diminished, his role is to ensure the squad buys into the strategy and keep them motivated.
I'm genuinely excited so see what positional changes might become evident over the Summer. Not only to refresh players roles / head space, but to ensure we go into 2025 with fresh strategy and not offering opposition coaches what they expected. Pressure on the ball carriers, speed and fluid ball movement is the way to continue to evolve this side.

Will we be dealt a kinder injury hand?
Injury is in the lap of the Gods, but let's not forget we'll get JDG, McStay, Mihocek and Mitchell back from the injury ward. Waiting to get McStay and Mihocek together is like waiting for a classic heavyweight belt clash.
Mitchell's inclusion gives us back that inside distribution we've sorely missed. It's a role that has material domino effect on how the side lines up. We need to find his replacement sooner rather than later.

Which version of Darcy Moore do we get in 2025?
Getting Moore back to his best I remains pivotal to our fortunes. With that, Howe's impact can't be underestimated until such time we trade in viable high calibre replacement.
I'm still keen to see McCreery with his speed and tackling ability to create turnovers, moved onto the HBF trial over the Summer. Pendles resuming a more permanent floating HBF role should ensure we have sufficient creativity to release McCreery, IQ and Maynard to drive the ball up the ground.

Which 2nd-4th year player can become a reliable and impactful player in the 22?
Critical to whether the list evolves sufficiently in 2025 in order to give the coach fresh strategy options.
Of this season's debutants, we'll have some that push into a regular starting spot by R5-10 and that'll gradually see this list refreshed by the start of the 2026 season.

Who do we land during the Draft/Trade period?
We don't yet know who will be coming our way in the trade period in order to bolster our list. We're all hoping there will be a surprise during this period.
The introduction of Perryman into our midfield rotation alongside JDG, Naicos, Crisp & Mitchell will ensure we compete with the competitions best on class and hardness in the contest to feed our HBF / wingers.
The draft? I can't see that having an impact on us in 2025, that'll simply be a speculative exercise for seasons ahead.

I believe if we get a 15-25% collective output (yes, a big number) increases from our Wingers and HBF's are the keys to getting this side to get back into top4 contention.
What of our wingers? Not the quickest in the comp, Jaicos and Lipinski but are smart footballers and loom as real trump cards with improved feeds from the above and our midfield.
So, all in all, with Macrae at the helm and some fresh strategy I reckon we'll fall into the 8th-5th range. The upper range determined by the casualty ward and if the squad are as invested as they were in 22/23.

[piedys]

We need a genuine refresh if we are to improve next year. ....

Fwiw (not much I guess), I don't see any futures for Long, Bytel or Macrae.
I'm not sure about Krueger or Reef, but it wouldn't surprise me if they were traded, along with Richards.
At the end of the day, we'll need to trade out, in order to trade in.

Rudey, i'm not sure we'll see quite the exodus of players at seasons end 2024, like we did last year.
I think some of the 2023 delistings were detrimental to our progress in 2024, namely Ruscoe and Bianco.
Ruscoe could have played Murphy's role, but Dean was thrown to the Wolves early, rightly or wrongly.
Bianco not given much of a run in 2023, but given our injuries in 2024, might have strung together some decent games.

Of those players you listed, only Richards and Reef have any potential currency, and it may be too late to even cut or losses on Finn Macrae.
May as well just leave him in the 22 now with Allen, moving forward to 2025...

[piedys]

If we get a fixture like Geelong or Carlton did we will make top 4

What you mean playing Pauperoos twice like Geebung?!
It's like a fraudulent winning lottery ticket into the top four... Unfukcingreal...

[Big T]

Hawks have the blueprint.

SPEED.

It’s not only speed. It’s elite kicking. They only go for elite kicks when drafting and trading for most positions.

[Pies2016]

If we get a fixture like Geelong or Carlton did we will make top 4

What you mean playing Pauperoos twice like Geebung?!
It's like a fraudulent winning lottery ticket into the top four... Unfukcingreal...

There’s a lot in that. The competition is very quickly evening out and it will only become even more so in the coming years. There will always be one or two clubs in rebuild mode but those clubs aside, there’s almost no such thing as an upset anymore.
Next year, whoever gets Richmond and / or the Eagles twice, will have a decided advantage over the course of the 2025 season. A hindsight conversation would likely confirm we had as tougher draw as anyone in 2024 but as premiers, I reluctantly get that. Going forward, what is only fair and reasonable, is having finished 9th, we should at least should draw one of Richmond or Eagles twice. Draw them both twice and it would prove difficult not to make the eight in 2025. Time will tell.

[piedys]

^

I agree with all you said, other than the fundamental issue I have with the AFL, their moronic underqualified mouthpieces, and the fixture in general.
There is no way 17th placed North needed to play Geelong twice; their group doesn't need that sort of setback either.
Teams finishing 14-18 by the end of H&A season really need to be playing each other twice in the following year - no if, buts or maybes; and not that prior years Premier, who won 2022 in a canter. Chances are teams finishing 14-18 aren't going to challenge for the premiership the season following, and even making the eight would be largely optimistic, in a rebuild mode from those lower positions.

I have ZERO faith in Dillon or that twit Kane; both are next-level stupid [like McLaughlin] and have NO BUSINESS running an entity the size of the AFL.
Thing is, these imbeciles and their sycophants will pat themselves on the back with oh, what an exciting season we created, when in reality, all they did was introduce more stupid rule interpretations for even more shit brained cheating umpires to engineer results against our club, and cost themselves circa $1+million dollars in lost ticket sales revenue for this coming September!

A vote of no-confidence in them from all clubs would be an ideal way to have them removed from their posts.

[gurugeoff]

is it time to put Joe Richards ahead of Elliot? Jamie, for mine has been reduced to the occasional (albeit, very good) cameo

[piffdog]

^ I think our contract re-signings for 2025 (the old guys) suggests we are gunning for another flag tilt next year.

I think Elliott gets us closer to that flag than Richards if its a straight choice between those two (which of course it isn't), so I would be sticking with Elliott.
We might have to live with Richards going elsewhere before then, but that becomes a "later" problem when we are apparently very heavily focussed on the here and now.

I think Elliott's cameos are as much a function of the way the team moves the ball - and so Richards is just as likely to go missing for quarters or whole games at a time. I also think Elliott is a more dynamic player.
Richards to me seems to be a classic speedy crumbing forward and that's about it.

[LaurieHolden]

We're perhaps in one of the most material Club flashpoints we've seen in the past 30 years.
The Do Better Report fallout in 2021 seemed like 5 minutes ago. While that is hopefully behind us from a controversy and destabilising perspective, we're now on the search for a President along with several coaching personnel adjustments still being bedded down post Executive General Manager of Football Graham Wrights departure.
While all of that is going on, the murmurings re our CEO must have started with some foundation.
I think we all need to be prepared for a period where the communication from the top will be opaque and without clear directive that in itself will become frustrating, if it hasn't been already.

If that wasn't enough, while the machinations of the draft & trade period play out, we won't know what the list shape will take for months to come.
If we find ourselves with key signings, that will likely keep the nest from being stirred up before we start swooping anyone that comes near it.

[Mr Miyagi]

Hawks have the blueprint.

SPEED.

It’s not only speed. It’s elite kicking. They only go for elite kicks when drafting and trading for most positions.

Also paying off the umpires to ignore all their playing for head high free kicks in the forward line. Check the stats for frees and goals to their much lauded forwards, it was a rort. Commentators were laughing about it on TV.

Compare to games where we were robbed. Makes a huge difference. Hawks are this years Bulldogs getting an umpire ride into the finals.