Finally, the 2013 AFL premiership season has arrived, in fact it’s already begun with two games in Perth and Adelaide over the weekend, but for Collingwood and North Melbourne the season will start on Sunday Afternoon at Etihad Stadium as they face off in their round 1 fixture. It may only be round one, and the first game of the year, but for both teams this game is important as they respectively face a very tough draw, especially over the first few rounds. Collingwood come into 2013 as one of the premiership favourites after falling one week shy of the Grand Final last year, mainly due to a shocking run with long term injuries, and the club has to be aiming for a top four finish after the home and away rounds. North Melbourne on the other hand will be looking to replicate their 2012 finishing position, with a spot in the eight their realistic aim after 23 rounds, and they, and Collingwood will have to improve on last season to achieve these goals.

PRE SEASON FORM

The form of teams’ in the NAB Cup isn’t a great indicator of how a playing squad will perform in round 1 and this year was no different, with both the Magpies and Kangaroos almost mirroring each other throughout the pre season, with 3 wins to open up their respective campaigns followed by two losses to end their warm up fixtures leading into this vital round 1 clash. Collingwood’s pre season would have been satisfying mainly due to the fact that they got plenty of game time into many of their new recruits, with the likes of Young, Russell, Lynch, Dwyer, Martin and Frost all pushing their claims for senior selection early in the home and away rounds. Over at North Melbourne I’m sure they are equally satisfied with their pre season, with no major injuries occurring and a bunch of youngsters and new players pushing for selection, with Majak Daw and ex Demon Jordan Gysberts probably the most well known of the possible Kangaroo debutantes.

LAST TIME THEY MET

The last time these two matched up was round 21 last season, and it was the Roos who came away with an upset win over the Pies by 30 points, as they overcame an early 24 point deficit to run Collingwood off their legs. Up forward Petrie, Thomas and Tarrant booted three goals a piece as North sealed a spot in the final eight. There’s little doubt that North loves playing at Etihad Stadium though, they won 10 of their 13 games there last season and 4 of those wins came against top 8 sides, and it definitely isn’t as friendly of confines as the MCG is to the Magpies, with Collingwood losing several key games there over the past few seasons.

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

The Magpies will enter their round one matchup with plenty of selection headaches, with as many as 6 of their best 22 players likely to miss the final selection cut. Those certain not to play include Alan Didak, Alex Fasolo, Luke Ball, Lachlan Keefe and Andrew Krakouer, and there are question marks over the fitness of Tyson Goldsack, Ben Reid, Dale Thomas and Clinton Young, although it would seem likely that Goldsack, Reid and Young will take their place on Sunday Afternoon. The biggest selection conundrum for the Pies’ may well be Thomas, who is as physically fit as is required to play a game of AFL football, but because of off season surgery to an ankle he injured last season, he hasn’t partaken in any of the Magpies VFL or senior practice matches yet. Thomas’ selection or non selection should be known on Thursday Night when both the squad of 25 is announced and also the Pies’ VFL team partakes in a practice match at the MCG.

As far as changes to the make up of the Collingwood team from last year’s preliminary final defeat, there will be plenty, with the names above missing, plenty of the Pies’ new recruits, as well as a few youngsters who have been at the club for a while now, will get a chance to prove themselves in the spotlight that is senior football. Hopefully Clinton Young is fit enough to join fellow signings Quinten Lynch and Jordan Russell in the team, and mature aged VFL recruits Sam Dwyer and Jack Frost are also pushing for one of the final open selection spots in the squad of 22.

In the pre season competition it became apparent that Collingwood was attempting to use the centre corridor more, as last season the Mick Malthouse taught “around the boundary” gameplan seemed to be heavily exploited at times, especially by the two clubs who beat the Pies’ in the finals, Hawthorn and Sydney. You would think this is Nathan Buckley trying to put his stamp on this playing list, and it will be interesting to see how this develops as the season endures.

Opposition Analysis.

Few would argue that North Melbourne enter the 2013 season with a talented young and developing list, but the problem for the Kangaroos is they have been handed a horror draw from the AFL. In the first five weeks of the season North has to face Collingwood, Hawthorn, Sydney and the resurgent Geelong, which could leave their finals hopes in doubt very early in the season. There are easier games to come after that, but there’s little doubt the draw is the biggest obstacle standing between North and another spot in the finals. During the free agency and trade period the Kangaroos were pretty quiet, with the only major gain being ex Demon Jordan Gysberts, showing that they believe that enough improvement will come from within their list.

There’s little doubt that North’s major strengths is their ability to put a score on the board, and a lot of that comes down to their forward line. North’s strength up forward is their talls, their key position players, with Petrie leading the way and he was, and will be ably assisted by Tarrant, Hansen and the ever emerging Majak Daw, who could be anything when he finally learns to harness that raw ability. Lindsay Thomas in his own enigmatic way also adds a lot to the Kangaroos forward set up, and with their star midfielders also chipping in and adding goals, there’s not a lot to worry about in terms of scoring this year for North. If they do have a weakness up forward, it would be in regards to small forwards (Adams and Harper the only real options), but when you’ve got a tall forward set up like they do, it seems to balance out any apparent problems. This forward line will test Collingwood this week, with no Lachie Keeffe to call on the Pies may have to lean towards including first gamer Jack Frost as a tall defensive option to restrict the North talls in the offensive zone.

North Melbourne’s midfield is also full of a varying degree of talent, and promise, but it is slightly different in it’s usage that most of the top AFL midfield’s with the Roos in 2012 being one of the biggest users by hand in the AFL. Not that it’s a bad thing, but it shows the different approach that Brad Scott has in terms of his game style and planning. The Kangaroos midfield this week is likely to consists of Swallow, Bastinac, Ziebell, Wright, Wells and Gibson with one of Anthony and Gysberts to make up the last rotational position, probably initially named on the interchange. That is a talented midfield, and when you add the ruck options North have in Goldstein, Petrie and Currie you see that this midfield group is capable of matching it with any in the competition. Obviously the absence of the experienced Brent Harvey will hurt their depth, but the Roos will believe in their ability to contest against the best, and deepest midfield in the competition, especially with Ball and Thomas likely to be missing for the Magpies.

If North do have an area of weakness that can be exploited, it’s their backline, and with Scott McMahon suspended for round one because of an indiscretion in the pre season this is the area of the ground that Collingwood will look to dominate. The Roos do have some tall timber down back though, with Firrito, Thompson and Grima able to play on any tall forwards, each player’s height (Thompson is the tallest at 193cm) means they do struggle at times on the best tall and strong forwards in the competition, and it just so happens that they run into two beasts in Quinten Lynch and the ever powerful Travis Cloke, who has taken more contested marks in the last two seasons than any player in the history of the game over a similar period. North makes up for it’s weakness in height in defense by playing a team defensive set up where each of their defenders, even the smaller ones are asked to assist their fellow defenders to avoid as many one on one contests as possible. If Collingwood are to win, this is one are they’ll have to gain advantage from for sure.

The North Melbourne team that will run out on Sunday will firmly believe it has a chance to cause an upset here, and you can see why with two areas of the ground that can worry Collingwood and a game plan that assists in hiding it’s weakest area of the ground, it’s backline. The absence of Thompson and Harvey does hurt, but of course that’s counter acted by the players that the Magpies will be missing, and there’s little doubt North will field a team closer to their best 22 than the Pies’ will. North Melbourne out ran and out willed Collingwood in their last meeting and there’s little doubt the Roos’ work rate will be up near the highest level once again.

Teams;

Coming soon.

Tip.

On face value you would think that a side that is going to compete for the premiership would over run and defeat a team that is looking to just make the final eight, but circumstances make this game a lot closer than it probably should be. The players that Collingwood will be missing and the location brings this right back to a real contest between two sides who will be desperate to grab four premiership points to start the season. Collingwood will be relying on it’s midfield to lead the way, while North will be trying to take advantage of it’s greatest strength, it’s tall forwards to find a way to defeat Collingwood for the second time in a row.

With no Thomas, Ball, Fasolo, Didak etc. playing for the Pies they will call on a group of youngsters and mature aged recruits, most who have never played a home and away game in the black and white stripes, and while North will believe this gives them an opportunity to win, as we saw in the NAB Cup, Collingwood’s best performance (against the Eagles in Perth) was on the back of their fringe players pushing for inclusion in the 22 for round one and beyond. The addition of Young, Russell and Lynch is sure to off set the impact of the missing players also.

I believe the Collingwood depth is good enough to cover the loss of the two most critical outs, Ball and Thomas and come away with a much needed round one victory that will set up a classic round two match up against Carlton, and ex coach Mick Malthouse.

PIES BY 16.

Pre match Discussion Thread  on the BB – Collingwood v North Melbourne Round 1 - All comments

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