mattys123′s Collingwood v Carlton Round 2 Preview

Apr 3rd, 2013 | By | Category: AFL Match Preview

filthIT DOESN’T GET ANY BIGGER THAN THIS, as the most intense rivalry in Australian domestic sport adds another chapter to it’s history when Carlton and Collingwood face off in their round 2 clash at the MCG on Sunday. The rivalry between these two great clubs is the stuff of legend, dating all the way back to the early years of the then VFL competition, but to find the source of the hatred you have to look no further than the 1910 VFL Grand Final, the first time these two met in a season decider. The game was a tight fought contest, but just after three quarter time a massive brawl broke out involving up to 30 players and support staff, and while the umpire eventually calmed the situation, and the game continued, what happened in the aftermath (the Pies’ won the flag by 14 points) was to become the beginning of the greatest and most fervent rivalry in Australian sport.

After the game, the VFL tribunal suspended two players from each team for the entirety of the 1911 season, only for Collingwood to protest that a “lesser” player, Richard Daykin, had been one of the instigators and not their star player Tom Baxter. The VFL believed Collingwood and Daykin was given the punishment that was originally handed out to Baxter. This infuriated the Blues, as they protested that the player who had started the brawl had black hair (as Baxter did) while Daykin had red hair, and they were incensed further when Daykin promptly retired after the 1910 season while Baxter went on and played the following season.

There have been many other Collingwood vs Carlton battles that have become part of football folklore over the years, like the home and away fixture in 1938 where Collingwood star Harry Collier was suspended for the rest of the season for punching a Carlton player after a game at Victoria Park, which was then followed by Carlton winning the Grand Final over the Pies’. Probably the most famous matchup in the history of the two clubs was a little more recent when in the 1970 VFL Grand Final Collingwood led Carlton by 44 points at half time, only for the Ron Barassi coached Blues’ to produce the most stunning turnaround in Grand Final history and steal a 10 point win that damaged the fabric of the Collingwood Football Club for many years to come.

This season however, the rivalry has for the first time in a while had some added spice introduced to it, with ex Collingwood premiership coach Mick Malthouse coming out of semi retirement to become Carlton’s head coach in 2013. Malthouse’s departure from Collingwood was an acrimonious affair, as during the 2009 season a succession plan was put in place by the Pies’ to have club champion Nathan Buckley take over as senior coach at the end of 2011, and Malthouse would then become the Director of Coaching at the club. Despite winning the 2010 premiership, and then coming close in the 2011 Grand Final but losing after a disastrous last quarter performance, Malthouse then decided he didn’t want to be at the club any more and turned down the role and instead took what most thought would be an extended break from coaching.

Malthouse’s return will be the major talking point of the week but when all is said and done come Sunday there is a game to play, and the players are the ones who will ultimately decide the outcome.

ROUND 1 FORM.

Carlton began their 2013 home and away season with their traditional Thursday night natch up against Richmond at the MCG, and over 81,000 people turned up for what was to be an epic encounter. The Blues struggled early as the young, fast and hungrier Tigers leapt out to a 42 point lead in the third quarter, only for Carlton to close the margin to under a goal leading into the last few minutes. Carlton’s enigmatic running star Chris Yarran had two guilt edge chances late on to give the Blues the lead, and probably the win but he missed both as Richmond held on for a vital 5 point victory. The usual suspects starred for Carlton with Judd, Gibbs, Kreuzer and Betts among their best.

Three days later Collingwood turned up at Etihad Stadium to face a fellow finalist from last year, North Melbourne, and as Nathan Buckley said he must have “kicked a black cat” or “walked under a ladder” because just about everything continued to go wrong for his team in the lead up to the game. Dayne Beams sustained a quad injury at training the day before and Heath Shaw came down with a case of food poisoning only moments before the team ran out, which meant Jack Frost and Josh Thomas were both bought in for their senior debuts. The bad luck continued during the game for the Pies with another running defender Ben Johnson being subbed off at half time for a severe corked leg, while Ben Reid was knocked out and received some severe cuts to his mouth in a controversial incident involving Lindsay Thomas in the third quarter. Yet despite all those setbacks, Collingwood built a six goal lead approaching the mid point of the last quarter, and held on grimly for a gutsy, hard fought 16 point win that was a massive confidence booster for the whole club.

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

The Magpies would have been ecstatic with their backs against the wall type win in round one as they came away with a victory over North Melbourne without many of their best 22 players, and it seems as if they won’t get too many back this week either. The only players in contention to return for Collingwood seem to be Dale Thomas, Dayne Beams and Heath Shaw, with Shaw the only one guaranteed to play on Sunday. In the absence of those missing players though, plenty of young and new Pies’ stood up and pressed their claims for a regular spot in the team. Josh Thomas made his debut after 3 terrible seasons of injury, and showed why he was retained as he won 7 clearances in the first half which was a game high at the time. Jack Frost was given the responsibility of restricting one of North’s three tall forwards and he was every bit as effective as his experienced fellow defenders in a remarkable debut performance. Sam Dwyer, also a rookie promotion, and also playing his first senior game of AFL football came on as the sub in the second half and gave the Pies a much needed running boost as his team mates tired around him.

What these players add, as well as the experienced recruits Quinten Lynch and Jordan Russell is depth that Collingwood hasn’t seen since 2010, when ultimately they came away with the prize at the end of the season. During the win against North Melbourne what was also evident was that the pressure on the opposition ball carrier was back to that manic level that was league leading, and league destroying 3 years ago. Players like Sinclair, Elliott, Dwyer, Blair, Maxwell, Toovey, Pendlebury, Goldsack and Clarke placed such immense pressure on the North Melbourn midfield that they couldn’t get clean possessions away, and against an equally attacking side like Carlton the Magpies pressure will have to be at it’s highest intensity once again.

Collingwood’s midfield is usually it’s greatest strength, and while it’s ability to win the contested ball was tested last week, the return of Beams and Thomas should add to an already impressive list of names. One player that Carlton have never had to deal with in black and white stripes is Quinten Lynch though, and the ex Eagle showed last week that he and Travis Cloke are going to be a fearsome pairing up forward, especially against any side that does not have two high quality genuine defenders, like Carlton and North Melbourne.

The Pies’ will be confident of knocking off the old foe after losing twice to them last year, but the final selection may provide the best guide as to how confident the players, coaches and fans are on Sunday of a Magpie win.

OPPOSITION ANALYSIS.

Carlton entered 2013 with promise and hope of improvement on their poor final ladder position of 10th last season, and most of that hope had to do with one man coming to the club, new head coach Mick Malthouse. And despite a first up loss most of that hope and promise would still exist in the hearts and minds of their fans, especially leading into a game against the old enemy, a team they defeated twice last season in such convincing fashion. Carlton’s first round loss set it back a bit but their performance in the second half showed that when they get their game going they can be a hard team to contain, and there’s little doubt that this week Malthouse himself would have changed the game plan just a little bit to allow for the Blues to play to their strengths, rather than the weaknesses that plagued them early on against the Tigers.

Carlton’s midfield is it’s strength, there is no hiding that at all, and when you have names like Judd, Gibbs, Murphy, Simpson, Carrazzo, Robinson and Simpson rotating through your midfield set up you really can’t do anything else but build your team around this talent, rather than take the focus off it. Yet last week they were beaten clearly in the clearances and contested possession statistical categories, especially early on as a younger, hungrier and more aggressive Tigers midfield tore them to bits in the second and third quarters. A midfield area that Carlton would have been quite happy with in round 1, and an area they will look to dominate against the Pies is their ruck department, with Warnock likely to come in this week and assist Kreuzer up against Darren Jolly and his part time assistant Quinten Lynch. Carlton last year against the Pies dominated in the midfield and with the Pies still likely to be without at least one top class midfielder (Luke Ball) Carlton will look to dominate this area again, or else they will struggle as other areas of the ground reveal.

The Carlton forward line has been the bane of Carlton for a while, with Eddie Betts by far their most reliable forward, and that in itself is a problem as small forwards do struggle to score in finals football usually (Betts will be missing this week with a broken jaw). The other problem the Blues have had up forward is getting their best tall forward, Jarrad Waite, on the ground on a regular basis, as shown once again to start this season with Waite likely to miss at least the first three games. That’s not to say that Carlton have trouble scoring, it’s almost the opposite, as when they are on their midfielders and small forwards move the ball so fast that the forward line is usually fairly open and this allows for their midfielders to add goals to the score board also. This weekend though Carlton will have a rather temporary feel to their forward line with no Waite or Betts, they will rely on Walker, Kreuzer, Garlett and their rotating midfielders to kick the majority of their score, and against a Collingwood midfield that was back to it’s restrictive best last week (especially in the first 3 ½ quarters) it’s hard to see Carlton kicking a winning score against the Pies.

Carlton’s backline is under rated I believe, yes it’s not full of All Australian or absolute elite class defenders but it seems to get the job done more often than not, as shown last week when they held the ever dangerous Jack Riewoldt goal less. And while Carlton’s points against average was very high last season, I believe that has more to do with their overly attacking game plan than it does their talent. Obviously Mick Malthouse is a defensive first coach too, so there’s almost no doubt the 2013 Blues backline will be better than last season. They have three fairly capable tall defenders in Jamison, Duigan and Henderson and if Laidler comes in for Bootsma this week as expected, they will have the height to cover the Magpie talls of Cloke, Lynch, MaCaffer and Goldsack, especially if the respective round one matchups are anything to go by. The problem Carlton might have had is if the Pies’ had their full compliment of first choice small forwards available, but with no Didak, Fasolo or Krakouer this weekend, Carlton will face a less offensive small forward brigade, and that will no doubt make it easier for their small/medium defenders to restrict the Pies smalls from having an impact on the scoreboard. An area where Carlton destroyed Collingwood last year was with their run off half back, and to a large extent that was down to one man, Chris Yarran, and apart from his two possible game winning misses in round one Yarran showed he will be just as dangerous this season, especially against the Pies’.

Carlton have the talent and game style to defeat Collingwood, we saw that twice last year, but the loss of Betts and Hampson, and the absence of Waite will hurt the Blues more than the Collingwood absences will hurt the Pies’ you’d suspect. The Blues though, with their new head coach will still be confident of making a run at Collingwood here, and if their midfield can improve on it’s efforts of last week against the Tigers they may be able to gain control of the game and test the Magpies game winning ability with still several of their own stars missing.

TIP.

This is s a true rivalry game, and no matter what the players say during the week, or the coaches try and sell us about this just being another game, everyone involved knows how big this matchup is each year, and the Malthouse factor takes it up another level altogether. The start will be intense, and it will be interesting to see how the younger Magpies who performed so well last week will perform on the big stage that is the MCG in front of a probable crowd of near 90,000. Carlton will have their own youngsters and inexperienced players out there though, and the absence of three of their stars has to make it more difficult for a side still trying to figure out their new coach to win at the highest level against a top class opponent.

Carlton should have won last week, and with what happened Collingwood probably should have lost with so few players on the bench in the final quarter, but in the end the results were the ones that were earned and deserved, and that’s usually what happens in modern day AFL football, that the side that works harder, for longer will endure in the end. A lot will depend on who actually plays for Collingwood though, with Thomas (Dale not Josh), Beams, Shaw, Reid, Young and Johnson all not certain to take their place due to injury, and everyone one of those names would make Collingwood just a little bit better with each individual inclusion.

Collingwood will approach this game though as if they should win it, and they should, they are the better team, even on paper at this stage, and if they do get a few stars back they will firm even more in betting for Sunday’s game. The weather is forecast to be fine and warm, which on face value may favour Carlton but the Magpies have a great record at the MCG, and on a perfect day for football they should be able to overcome a Blues side that is yet to fully realise just how good it might be, and how to play it’s best football under it’s new coach. The final margin will be close however as I can’t see either team running away with a big victory.

PIES BY 11 POINTS.

MILESTONE

Congratulations to Scott Pendlebury who this weekend will play his 150th AFL games.

Pre match Discussion Thread  on the BB – Collingwood v Carlton Round 2 - All comments

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