ONE WIN, THREE LOSSES, that’s a terrible way to start a 22 round AFL premiership season, yet that’s exactly where the loser of Friday Night’s round 4 opener will sit. Richmond and Collingwood came into season 2014 with high hopes, the Tiger Army was coming off it’s first finals appearance in a decade, while the Magpies were looking to get back to their glory days of recent years. Both clubs lost elimination finals in the first week of the finals in 2013 as favourites, so both would have thought of using that as motivation going forward. Yet after three rounds they both sit outside the top 8, with a one win and two loss record, and no matter how they’ve come to this point this game is now absolutely crucial.

Considering you’ll probably need to win 13 of 22 games just to play finals this season, a loss here would place extreme pressure on a teams chances to make the top 8. Wet weather is predicted in Melbourne for most of the week so this may well be a brutal slog in which the winner comes away with a close victory and relaunches their season.

Recent history between these two teams points dramatically in favour of the Magpies, with all of the last six meetings going the way of Collingwood. In fact the last time Richmond defeated the Pies was way back in 2007, although in a quirk in the draw they haven’t met twice in the same season since that year.

The Tigers will have to overcome that terrible recent run against the Pies if they want to keep their finals hopes alive.

 

RECENT FORM;

It’s been a disappointing start to the season for Richmond, losing to two sides who probably won’t play finals and literally falling over the line against another in the same category. Their only win came over Carlton in round 2, and they could well be 0-3 if the Blues had of kicked straight in that game. Last weekend at Etihad Stadium, the Tigers trailed for nearly the entire match, and despite getting the lead momentarily in the last quarter, they lost to a Daniel Giansiracusa match winning goal. While that may look bad on paper, there still has been positives for Richmond though, with newcomers Matt Thomas and Nathan Gordon doing plenty in the early rounds. Just like Collingwood though the Tigers have been hit hard by injuries, with Deledio, Maric, Hampson, Knights and Rance all missing games so far. They should get a few of those players back this week and if recent form is anything to go by, they will need them.

It’s hard to judge just how Collingwood is going due to their very hard draw to start the season. A big loss to Fremantle in round 1, followed by a gutsy win over Sydney saw Collingwood enter last week’s clash against Geelong in decent shape. But against Geelong they never really looked like winning, even if the sides were only split by 5 points with seconds remaining. The Pies were lucky to be that close really, with the Cats missing a heap of chances to build a big lead in the first and third quarters. There were positives out of the loss though, with Jamie Elliott having a great night with 5 goals and a mark of the year contender in what might have been a career best performance. Brent Macaffer added Steve Johnson to his list of tagging victims and Dayne Beams played his usual good game against the Cats. It was another loss though in the end, and one that leaves Collingwood on the edge of what would be a poor start to the season.

 

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW;

The last two games that the Magpies have played have seen them get back on track to their usual competitive selves after a terrible start to the season against Fremantle. The win in Sydney followed by a close loss to a powerful Geelong outfit would give the group that confidence that they can compete, and on occasion defeat the top teams. The draw does start to open up a bit for the Pies now but they can’t look any further than Friday night and will hope that several players under injury clouds are passed fit to play. Those players in question are Nick Maxwell, Dayne Beams and Sam Dwyer, although recent updates have provided positives news for the former two players there. Injuries have obviously been a problem for Collingwood so far in 2014, with several big names still a few weeks from returning. Not having two key position players in Reid and Brown hurt them last week against Geelong but it’s hard to see the Tigers exploiting that weakness with the same ruthlessness.

Unfortunately Taylor Adams won’t be available for selection this week after accepting a one match ban for a push on Joel Selwood late in the game last week, but there is good news out of the VFL for once. All of Josh Thomas, Ben Kennedy, Jarrod Witts and Quinten Lynch got through their match against the AIS academy on Friday night in great form and will be considered for senior selection against Richmond. Thomas would be a perfect replacement for Adams while Kennedy is a future star who is just starting to figure out what it takes to play at the top level.

The Pies will believe they can defeat Richmond and recent form and history between the two suggests that confidence is not out of place.

 

OPPOSITION ANALYSIS;

After finally returning to finals football last season, all be it for one week, Richmond would have come into the 2014 season thinking that the only way was up. Yet after just three rounds against mediocre opposition it looks far from up at the moment. This is a big game for the Tigers, a game that could put their season on the right track, although to turn it around that quickly they’ll have to improve in a number of areas. Some have questioned whether there’s the hunger within the playing group or whether the playing list has enough depth, but on paper the Tigers of 2014 still seem like a talented outfit.

When fully fit the Richmond backline is actually a stronger unit that most give it credit for, but unfortunately for them this week Alex Rance, the star of that backline won’t play yet again. Brett Deledio has also spent time down back and he seems unlikely to play also. In their place, and tasked with the responsibility of stopping Travis Cloke in his 200^th game, will be the likes of Astbury, Chaplin, Grimes, Valustin and Morris. Even without Rance and Deledio that backline still has enough talent to restrict a Magpies forward line that hasn’t fired so far in 2014.

The Richmond midfield has the star names such as Martin, Cotchin and Jackson and it really is an effective machine. Even this season where the rest of the side has struggled, the Tigers midfield is ranked in the top 8 for contested possessions and clearances, showing it can win the hard ball. Of course this week they run into their biggest test of the season to date, as the Pies midfield is stacked full of stars, although the absence of the suspended Taylor Adams will help Richmond a bit. The ruck is an interesting area in this game with Maric and Hampson still in doubt, leaving Vickery, Stephenson and Griffiths as the choices for the ruck duties against the best young ruckman in the league, Brodie Grundy. As always if either side can get a distinct advantage in the middle it will go a long way to winning them the game.

The Richmond forward line is dangerous, there’s no other way to put it. Led by talisman Jack Riewoldt, an emotional beast who can turn the game on a dime, or blow it for you, and ably assisted by the improving Tyrone Vickery and Ben Griffiths. What the Tigers may lack is a dangerous small forward although their midfielders provide enough support to cover for this disparity. The Collingwood backline has been decimated by injuries so far this season, and it surely has to be one area of the ground that Richmond will look to exploit and gain an advantage in.

Richmond will go into this game buoyed with their second half performance against the Bulldogs, fully knowing that if they can repeat that level of intensity and performance that they are in this game up to their eyeballs. Despite missing a few key players the Tigers really should be going close to winning this game especially with the personnel that Collingwood is missing. It’s as important of a game as Richmond has had so far in this short season, and you would expect they will come out fired up.

TIP;

With both teams effected by injuries and suspension it seems as if this game is a tough one to tip a result in. But if you look at the exposed form from the first three games and the opposition that both have faced, Collingwood’s 1-2 win/loss record stacks up better than Richmond’s. Ultimately that should be the difference in this game, the Magpies ability to perform at a higher level for longer should ensure they come away with their 7^th win in a row over the Tigers.

PIES BY 16 POINTS.

 

Congratulations Travis Cloke on 200 games.

This Friday night Travis Cloke will play his 200^th game for Collingwood. It’s quite fitting that he gets to play this milestone game against Richmond, the other club his father played for.

VFL

This weekend the Collingwood VFL side plays it’s second game of the regular season. The opponent for this round 2 clash is Port Melbourne at North Port Oval, game time is Saturday 2pm.

Pre match Discussion Thread  on the BB – Round 4 – Collingwood vs Richmond - All comments

You Can read more of  mattys123 previews and other sports related posting over on his site at SportsMatt 

Follow mattys123 on twitter @mattys123