Saturday afternoon footy, the way it’s supposed to be, and this weekend for the first time in season 2014 Collingwood and North Melbourne get to experience it. It’s a vital game for both clubs that may well determine which finishes ahead of the other after 23 rounds. At the moment North Melbourne sit sixth on the AFL ladder after winning three games in a row, while Collingwood sit ninth with a 2 win and 2 loss record. Both of these sides came into the season highly rated, some even had them finishing in the top four yet after round 1 it looked like all those predictions were wrong. Collingwood was thumped by Fremantle and Essendon easily disposed of the Kangaroos. Since then however each teams’ form has improved with the only loss in the combined 6 games coming against a premiership contending team in Geelong (Collingwood lost by 11 points). There’s little doubt that at the moment Collingwood and North Melbourne are two of the in form sides of the competition which makes for a mouth watering contest this Saturday at the MCG.

RECENT FORM

After two wins in a row to get them back in the positive, North Melbourne ventured to the SCG to play Sydney last weekend and they started as clear underdogs. Yet from early in the game it was quite clear that this Kangaroos outfit had improved on the 2013 version, as it dominated the game and ran away with a very impressive 43 point win. It was the second week in a row that North had won a game as the underdog, after defeating Port Adelaide in Melbourne by 7 points in one of the games of the year so far. The Roos are in top form having defeated two highly rated opponents in consecutive weeks and will go into this match full of confidence.

Collingwood’s form is also looking good after a wonky start to the season. Wins over Sydney and Richmond with a very competitive loss to the rampaging Cats in between sees them back where they want to be on field. Last week’s win over the Tigers was never really in doubt, as the Pies midfield ran rampant kicked 10 of the club’s 16 goals. The highlight of the performance once again was Brent Macaffer who kept the opposition skipper to just 13 possessions, and you know a Pies player is doing a great job when the media criticise him for his methods. The Magpies defense still isn’t’ at full strength and their forwards are struggling, especially Travis Cloke, but they are now back to the dangerous team they were for most of last season.

 

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

After a disastrous start to the season Collingwood are back in form, there’s little doubt about that. In fact the Magpies current form may even be greater than most expected from them in 2014, with some tipping them to fall well down the ladder. There’s been plenty of reasons for the improvement, an increase in midfield performance, a tight knit defense performing at a top level and an intensity that is only there when the Pies are playing well. Of course the stars have led the way, with new captain Scott Pendlebury having stellar performances in both wins, and Dayne Beams taking his game to yet another level. There is still room for improvement though and the hope is that over the next few weeks some injured players will return to boost the Pies overall strength.

The return of players starts this week with Nathan Brown, Sam Dwyer and Taylor Adams all returning, the latter from a one week suspension. Brown’s recovery has been quite remarkable with some medical experts saying he would miss a large chunk of the season after dislocating his shoulder in the win over Sydney two weeks back. Brown’s return, along with Dwyer and Adams means that for the first time this season Collingwood has some genuine selection choices to make.

If there’s one area of real concern for the Pies it’s their star forward Travis Cloke, who in four games this season has only managed to kick two goals in total, and if the Pies want to compete with the best, they need their main man up forward impacting the scoreboard.

This weekend though Collingwood will go in with 22 fit and ready players after an 8 day break, something that would have allowed a few players to get over niggling injuries they had leading into the Richmond game. The possible return of Nathan Brown adds even more stability to the backline and if the Magpies can figure out a way to kick more accurately at goal, they really are a dangerous team for anyone to come up against.

 

OPPOSITION ANALYSIS

North Melbourne were one of the most hyped teams in the pre season with many good judges tipping them to not only make the finals but pus for a top four spot. After round 1, just like the Magpies, that looked unlikely but with three wins in a row North are back in form, and arguably in better form than we’ve seen from them for several years. Many have been waiting for this Kangaroos outfit to mature and it seems that finally they have. The addition and continued improvement of the likes of McDonald, Hansen, Black, Nahas, Bastinac, Gibson, Atley and Cunnington has made this side more consistent it seems. Of course the big name recruit at North is Nick Dal Santo and so far he hasn’t let them down at all, in fact he has excelled. Overall the Roos just look like a more stable, more reliable outfit than in years past.

The North Melbourne backline is starting to come together much like the rest of the team is. Last season at times they simply were too easy to score against, yet so far in season 2014 they’ve been very effective in restricting their opponents scoring ability. Led by Thompson, Grima and Hansen the backline for the Roos all of a sudden looks like one that may carry them a long way. The addition of Luke McDonald too has added some excitement to what many thought was a dour defense, but they will have to be on their game this week. Collingwood’s forwards haven’t really clicked as a group yet in 2014 but it will happen one week, that’s assured.

The Kangaroos midfield is a very capable and very strong unit that compares favourably when judged up against most opposition central groupings. The absence of Andrew Swallow should have held them back yet the improvement of Ben Cunnington and the continued excellence of the likes of Harvey, Ziebell, Wells and Bastinac has seen this midfield perform at a high level in recent weeks. In the ruck they have one of the overall best ruckman in the AFL, Todd Goldstein who has also been ably assisted by Daniel Currie over the past few rounds. North rank 5^th for hitouts while the Pies ranked 15^th, so there’s one area that the Roos should get a clear advantage. Of course Collingwood make up for less than stellar ruck effectiveness with a stunning group of midfielders who really are unmatched for talent and depth in the AFL. This is an area North will have to be competitive in to give themselves a chance of winning.

North Melbourne’s forward line on paper looks like one of the best in the AFL and while it’s performed well so far this season there are still doubts about it’s ability to perform consistently. Lindsay Thomas on his day can tear a game apart, yet hasn’t really done that yet this season. Drew Petrie is the main tall target up forward yet so far this season he’s only managed 1 more goal than the heavily criticised Travis Cloke. North, a lot like the Magpies, are relying on goals from their midfielders and while they have been ably assisted so far this season there will be games where this forward setup will have to score on it’s own. They do face a slightly depleted Magpies defense this week, with a lack of small defenders due to injuries and other circumstances. It’s the area of the ground that the Roos should exploit the Pies the most, but can they?

There’s little doubt that this 2014 version of the Kangaroos is better than the one that went around last year, it’s tougher, it’s more efficient and looks to be far more defensive than the side that gave up so many big leads last season. They will go into this match with a tonne of confidence off the back of three good wins and they will test and maybe exploit the Magpies in several key areas. If they can pull of the win a 4-1 start to the season is the reward, and that’s a sensational start for a side that missed the finals last season.

 

TIP

This really is one tough game to tip. On one hand you have North Melbourne, who have won three in a row, the last two coming against quality opposition while on the other hand you have the Magpies, who rampaged through the Tigers last week. North go into the game with the smaller injury list, with only Andrew Swallow a certain best 22 player missing, but this is somewhat offset by the Magpies good depth, home ground advantage and an extra 2 days rest.

Ultimately the latter might be the determining factor in a very close game, so I think Collingwood will over run North Melbourne late to move to 3-2 for the season, equal with the Roos.

PIES BY 8 POINTS.

Pre match Discussion Thread  on the BB – Round 5 – Collingwood vs North Melbourne - All comments

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