Collingwood vs St Kilda, whenever these teams are mentioned together two moments come to mind immediately, the 1966 and 2010 Grand Finals. In the 1966 season decider the Saints prevailed by a single point over Collingwood in what is still their only senior premiership in AFL/VFL history. The 2010 clash was built up with that clash in mind and a very similar result almost occurred, as in the dying seconds of the game the Saints went forward time and time again with the scores tied. This time though they couldn’t get the winning score and a replay had to be planned for the following week. Seven days later Collingwood got their revenge after 44 years when they won the 2010 Grand Final replay by 56 points in what was their biggest ever winning margin in a grand final. There’s been other moments and clashes in time that have defined the history between these two clubs, such as the John Greening incident of 1972, but those 2 stunning season deciders will stand as the two defining moments.

Four years after those 2 Grand Finals in 2010 and Collingwood and St Kilda meet for the only time this season on Friday Night at Etihad Stadium in Melbourne. The two clubs are in different stages of development with Collingwood only slightly off the main premiership contenders while the Saints are struggling in the bottom depths of the ladder. The Saints started the season better than most expected with 3 wins in their first 5 games but since that round 5 win over Essendon they’ve failed to come out of a game victorious. Collingwood’s form has been inconsistent, with poor performances against Fremantle and Adelaide but top wins against Sydney, North Melbourne and Essendon. St Kilda come into this game refreshed after the bye while Collingwood have only 6 days to recover from a bruising encounter over the Eagles, although getting the win would have made those bruises feel better. St Kilda hasn’t defeated Collingwood since a contest at this ground back in 2010 and they’ll have their work cut out to end that Magpies winning streak this Friday night.

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

The Magpies got back on track last week with a hard fought win against the Eagles at the MCG. For a lot of the contest Collingwood looked like dropping their second game in a row, as Jack Frost was subbed out with concussion then another key defender Nathan Brown went down with yet another shoulder injury. Somehow though the Pies showed the fight needed to get over the line and record a very gutsy win over a tough team. Brown’s injury was assessed as being so serious that season ending surgery is required although Frost’s concussion was at the mild end of the scale so he’s a chance to return this week.

That win left the Pies sitting in 6^th place and well alive in the hunt for a crucial top four spot with only one win between 2^nd and 6^th on the ladder. Not everything is going the way they want though with Brown’s injury adding to a list of players who are now unavailable for selection. Ben Reid leads that list as the key forward/defender hasn’t played a senior game so far this season. Reid’s absence will be even more felt now with Brown out and Cloke struggling up forward, the versatility of Reid will be crucial to just how far the Magpies can go in 2014. Reid may play in the VFL in 2 weeks time, but obviously won’t be available this weekend.

Collingwood’s selection committee does have a few players to choose from this week with the VFL side notching another strong win and plenty of possible inclusions out of that team. The list of probables would included Karnezis, Dwyer, Seedsman, Martin (able to be upgraded from the rookie list for Brown), Adams, Thomas and of course Lachie Keeffe who is almost certain to return to replace the injured Brown. Kyle Martin deserves a chance at senior level as he’s close to best on ground every week in the VFL but the creative midfielder is still a rookie and needed a long term injury or the round 11 upgrade to play senior football. He may well be the type of player the Pies are after with Jamie Elliott spending more time up the ground over the past few weeks a player who knows where the goals are is required.

Collingwood should win games like this but as we saw against Adelaide a few weeks back no game is a certain win in the AFL so the Magpies will have to turn up to play or risk another embarrassing loss.

 

OPPOSITION ANALYSIS

St Kilda are rebuilding, there’s no need to sugar coat it they are in the process of slowly working their way up the ladder again and their approach for the short term is youth related. That’s the right thing to do for a club who is only 3 full seasons removed from back to back grand final appearances. The Saints may find themselves in 16^th at the moment but there have been positive signs in the first 9 games with some of the youngsters showing extreme potential and some of the more experienced players standing up and delivering for the team. New senior coach Alan Richardson knows Collingwood fairly well having both played and been employed there as a development coach so that might help the Saints this week also.

If the Saints have a strength it’s the midfield with Hayes, Armitage, Montagna, Steven, Newnes, Dunstan and the newly recruiter Billy Longer as the starting ruck. St Kilda sit 5^th for clearances and 8^th for centre clearances which is well above the Pies averages which for some reason are very low at this stage of the year. In fact you’d back the Saints to win more of the ball than the Pies around stoppages which is a strange occurrence when it’s 6^th vs 16^th on the ladder. The Saints still have a decent tagger too in Clinton Jones although at times he’s been playing a more attacking role himself. If St Kilda are to be any chance in this game though they’ll have to restrict the forward impact of the Pies midfielders with Swan, Pendlebury, Beams and Elliott all capable of contributing to the scoreboard.

The St Kilda forward line doesn’t look bad on paper with the evergreen Nick Riewoldt leading a group that includes Siposs, Schneider, Stanley and Billings but for some reason it hasn’t really put the score on the board, especially in recent weeks. The Saints sit 16^th for total points scored and in a similar vein to the Magpies who sit 10^th overall goal kicking accuracy is one reason for a poor ranking. The Pies and Saints are in the bottom 3 for accuracy at goal in the AFL so this might well be an unattractive game to watch even under the roof at Etihad. The Saints run into a Pies backline this week that has been weakened by injury but somehow it continues to perform well above it’s age and experience. You’d suspect Riewoldt would have to dominate this game for the Saints to be any chance though, he’s just that important to them.

The Saints backline has been hit hard by injury with their 3 main defenders out through injury. The loss of Gwilt, Fisher and Gilbert has left the defense with a young and inexperienced look which simply has not been able to cope most weeks. The good news is they come up against a Pies forward line that really isn’t going well itself. All the focus has been on Travis Cloke with only 10 goals in 9 games but outside of Jamie Elliott there’s not a consistent goal scorer in that Pies attack. The Saints are likely to go with Dempster, Delaney and Bruce as their key defenders so it may well be the game that the Collingwood forward line breaks out and posts a big score.

The Saints have been hit hard by injury to key defenders, are trialling a lot of new players in different positions and have one eye on the future while trying to remain competitive in the present. For the first few weeks they were able to do that but as they’ve run into a few stronger teams St Kilda has struggled to remain competitive in the past few weeks. It doesn’t get any easier this week with a Magpies outfit that needs to start clicking before a tougher run in weeks to come. Realistically the Saints would be happy with a competitive performance here but upsets have happened before in this fixture.

TIP

Despite not clicking in the past two rounds the Magpies should post their 7^th win of the year on Friday night at Etihad Stadium. I’d expect the Saints to start well in the prime timeslot but eventually fall away as their inexperience and lack of overall ability starts to come through.

Pies will win and win rather comfortably.

MAGPIES BY 45 POINTS.

Pre match Discussion Thread  on the BB – Round 11 – Collingwood vs St.Kilda - All comments

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