Collingwood, oh Collingwood, what happened last week? Going into the game against the Western Bulldogs the Magpies were short favourites with most predicting an easy win for the men in black and white. After all the Magpies set equal second on wins while the Dogs sat equal second bottom, yet what happened in those 3 hours on Sunday stunned the AFL world. The Magpies let a golden opportunity slip to stay in the top 4 with a shock 8 point loss that left many a Pie fan shaking their head in disbelief. The loss hurts the Magpies chances of finishing top 4 because quite simply it was one of the easiest games they had left, and that is shown no more than who they run into next, the reigning premiers Hawthorn.

On Saturday at the MCG somehow the Magpies will have to regroup, somehow they will have to find a way to play much better than they did last week or else it could get ugly. The Hawks are just ticking along themselves but what they haven’t done is lost a game like the one the Pies dropped last week, and that sees them sitting pretty in the top 4 after 12 games. The bad news for Collingwood is they haven’t defeated the Hawks since the epic 2011 preliminary final when the Pies came from behind to end the Hawks season. This is a crucial game for both teams as they continue to fight to finish as high as they can on the ladder leading into the finals.

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW.

It was a loss that may well define the Magpies season last week, because it proves that this team is very inconsistent. Gains made with wins over top 8 teams Sydney and North Melbourne have been wiped out with losses to teams that won’t play finals, Adelaide and the Dogs. The season is far from over though and sitting in 6^th place with an 8-4 win/loss record means there is hope still. It has to start this week though against a side the Pies have struggled against ever since the Hawks came back to prominence back in 2008. One of the problems the Magpies have had against the Hawks is stopping them from scoring, with ex Hawk Lance Franklin being one of the thorns in their side year after year. The Pies will be happy he’s not playing this week but with a backline that is still weakened with the absence of Brown and Maxwell there are still dangers ahead. The Hawks lead the league for scoring so the Pies young backline will have to be at it’s best on Saturday. Youngsters in that backline though have stood up this year with Langdon, Frost and Keeffe asked to hold down key defensive positions at such an early stage in their careers. Last week it didn’t work so well though with the Dogs breaking the statistically important 100 point barrier.

Leading into this game the Pies will look to get a few senior players back but in all honestly there aren’t that many to choose from who are fit. Nick Maxwell is an outside chance to return but senior players like Reid, Goldsack, Fasolo, Brown, Sinclair and Sidebottom will not be available this week so the Magpies will be weakened. One option to replace a player who didn’t perform well against the Dogs could be Ben Kennedy who was clearly the VFL Magpies best player on Saturday. Kennedy is someone who likes the wet too and with rain predicted he would be an ideal inclusion against a Hawks midfield that is in top form. One stat that really stands out leading into this game is goal accuracy, with the Hawks ranked 1^st and the Pies ranked 18^th. It’s an area Collingwood will have to improve or they simply are no chance against a Hawks outfit that is deadly once it gets inside forward 50. It’s a tough ask for the Pies to win this game but an improved performance from last week in terms of execution will be a step in the right direction, no matter the final result.

OPPOSITION ANALYSIS

When you’ve played in the last two grand finals it’s pretty safe to say that you have a strong list, and that’s definitely one way to describe this Hawthorn outfit. Despite a poor run with injuries this year the reigning premiers are still in contention to make their third season decided in a row and are one side no one wants to face come September. The Hawks currently sit second on the AFL ladder and it could be argued that their draw is fairly easy from now on so they should finish top 4 and contend yet again. That’s not to say everything has been going along swimmingly for the Hawks this season, with injuries and 3 losses to top teams showing that even the best are vulnerable at times. They’ve been good in recent weeks though with good sized wins over the Eagles and Blues. It seems now too that they are starting to get some of those injured players back which isn’t good news for any of their future opponents.

The Hawthorn forward line could claim to be the most potent and dangerous in the entire league. With Roughead, Breust, Gunston, Puopolo and Rioli it’s up there with the Swans and Power for the most unstoppable forward set-up in the AFL. Then you add the likes of Suckling, Hale, Smith and Lewis who also assist tot he scoreboard and it’s clear to see why the Hawks are leading the AFL in scoring. This week it seems as if they will get Gunston back who missed last weekend and with a young Magpies backline waiting for them Hawthorn’s forward will be confident of putting a big score on the board again. It’s the one are of the ground where the Hawks seem to be dominant over the Magpies.

The Hawthorn midfield has always been under rated it seems, but it continues to get the job done in a very effective manner. The Hawks rank highly in just about ever important midfield statistical category and that’s even with Sam Mitchell missing significant games so far this season. Led in the ruck by David Hale and new recruit Ben McEvoy this midfield set-up may not have the superstar names of the Magpies but it will compete, and on recent form, dominate the Magpies central core. Collingwood got smashed in the clearances and contested possessions last week against the Dogs and it’s an area the Hawks have no problem in at all. The return of Dayne Beams might help a little bit but the Hawks once again seem to have more ability and form in this area than the Pies.

If there’s one area of the ground that Hawthorn is vulnerable it’s their backline. The Hawks backline has never really been their strength anyway but with Lake, Stratton and Gibson out injured over recent weeks it has been exposed at times, none more than when Levi Casboult of all people cut loose for the Blues last week. Lake and Stratton may return this week but you’d think they will be a little under done which will leave the bulk of the responsibility to Schoenmakers and Spangher down back. The Magpies forward line is dangerous too with Cloke, Elliott, White and Grundy/Witts all capable of putting a score on the board. Of course the one area the Hawks do excel in in regards to defense is ball movement coming out of the backline and with the Magpies number one pressure merchant, Tyson Goldsack, likely to miss again if the Pies don’t get their hands on the ball inside forward 50 the Hawks will run away with it.

Despite the recent run of injuries the Hawks are still in a great position after 12 games, and will see this as a real test to see just how far they are off their absolute best. The win over Carlton was methodical but not brilliant and there’s little doubt that Collingwood, even with it’s outs, is a more dangerous proposition than the Blues. The probable return of Lake and Gunston makes them stronger though and they will go into this game will plenty of confidence given their 3 year domination over the Pies. 

 

TIP

 

If you’re the Hawks this is a danger game, if you’re the Pies this is chance to impress. The Hawks haven’t been in great form recently but then again either have the Magpies. It makes it hard to tip definitively but of course most will lean towards a Hawks win here. The Pies though have a habit of winning games they shouldn’t, they were underdogs against the Swans and Roos yet came out and won both games convincingly. To win this game the Magpies will have come out and play that ferocious tackling and pressure game that is their hallmark when they are on. If they can do that, and if they can break even in the midfield their forward line just might be able to kick a winning score and get their season back on track.

PIES BY 3 POINTS.

 

VFL

 

After their third loss of the season last week the VFL Magpies get to return home to Victoria Park on Sunday. The opponent is the in form Footscray Bulldogs and the game kicks off at 2

Pre match Discussion Thread  on the BB – Round 14 – Collingwood vs Hawthorn - All comments

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