SO IT’S COME DOWN TO THIS, after 21 games the Collingwood football club get one shot at qualifying for the finals, and it happens this Friday. It’s an easy equation for the Magpies really, win and then hope the Swans beat the Tigers on Saturday, and they will finish 8^th and make their 9^th consecutive AFL finals series. Lose though and it’s all over, season 2014 will be entered in the history books as a failure for Collingwood. It all started so well for the biggest sporting club in Australia, as at the halfway point of the season they held an 8-3 win/loss record and looked a certainty for finals, and maybe even a top 4 chance. Since then though it’s all fallen apart, with injuries, form and an inability to win some close games putting the Pies in a free fall down the AFL ladder. While most focus on the extensive injuries that have befallen Collingwood this season the story goes deeper than that, with their depth being exposed as young and inexperienced or simply not good enough at times. It’s been a bad year for the Pies in may facets but there have been positives also, and with a win here they could just salvage something yet.

So onto Friday night, when the Hawks and Pies clash for the second time this season at the MCG. The last time they clashed the Hawks defeated the Magpies for the 6^th consecutive time, a streak that goes back to the epic 2011 preliminary final where the Pies came from behind to steal an improbable win. In round 14 the Pies put up a fight for the whole game but never really looked like winning, as the Hawks won by 19 points and the free fall for the Pies just started to take shape. Since then Hawthorn has cemented a spot in the top 2, and are almost certain now to be facing Geelong in week one of the finals, a side they defeated in spectacular fashion last Saturday night. Hawthorn themselves has a few injury concerns leading into the finals but with at least a 7 day break between this game and their first final, it’s hard to see them resting too many against Collingwood.

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

Some may say that Collingwood have done well to even still be in contention for a spot in the eight considering all the problems they’ve had, but realistically anything other than a finals appearance is a failure for the Magpies. Last weekend up in Sydney the Pies kept their finals hopes alive with a gutsy come from behind win over the upstart GWS Giants. It wasn’t the prettiest of wins but was one that gave the Magpies army plenty of satisfaction. Once again the Pies had to battle with troops down, with Swan, Young and Macaffer all off injured early it became a tough task for a side out of form to find a way to win with only one player left on the bench. Somehow though some of the lesser known Magpies lifted and they were able to steal an 8 point win that gave them hope, even if it’s slight hope. The return to form of the likes of Thomas, Blair, Williams and the leadership of Pendlebury and Sidebottom was the main reason Collingwood were able to win, and they’ll be leaning on their leaders again this Friday night.

With three players going out through injury somewhere Collingwood needs to find three to replace them, and they may be in luck for once with Jamie Elliott and Heritier Lumumba pushing to return after missing recent games through injury. Elliott in particular would add a dangerous edge to a Magpies attack that is badly needed in the absence of first choice forwards Cloke and Reid. The VFL side had yet another good win (and will play finals) and at least one player out of that win will be promoted to the seniors this week. Those in contention out of the VFL include Kennedy, Martin, Karnezis, Lynch, Gault and Seedsman, but there’s almost nothing left after that to chose from. One statistic that says it all about the Pies this year is that Jack Frost, basically a first year player, will become the only Collingwood player to play all 22 games if he lines up this week. The Magpies are down to the bare bones at the bottom of their list but they will field a side on Friday night that will believe it is a chance of causing an upset and keeping their season alive, for one more week at least.

 

OPPOSITION ANALYSIS

Hawthorn came into season 2014 looking to become the first team to win back to back flags since Adelaide in 1997-98. After 21 games they have secured a top four spot and with the win over Geelong last weekend all but assured themselves of a first week final at the MCG. Put simply they have as good a chance of going back to back as any club has had in the last decade. They’ve done things a little differently this year too, with an aging team in the last 2 grand finals it was clear that an injection of youth was needed and that’s exactly what has happened. One of those players has been an ex Magpies, Jonathon Ceglar, who you could say has been more impressive than the Hawks big off season recruit, Ben McEvoy. The injection of youth has reinvigorated some of the older players and despite a decent bout of injuries the Hawks are primed for a shot at football immortality.

The Hawks backline is largely under rated, but of course was given a boost in notoriety with Brian Lake winning the Norm Smith medal last season. The Hawks have always has a good team mentality when it comes to the defensive side of the game and that has meant they haven’t had to had supreme talent down back. They do still rely on Lake and Stratton to carry the burden of covering the oppositions key forwards though and for the most part they do that job well. Sides may see the small and medium defender positions as areas where they can exploit the Hawks but when a team has won as many games as this one has in the last 3 seasons, there really isn’t an apparent weakness down back. They’ll face off this week against a severely weakened Pies forward line with no Cloke, Reid or Beams to cause havoc. It’s an area of the ground the Hawks will need to get right come finals, so I wouldn’t be expecting any let down defensively on Friday night.

The Hawthorn forward line is scary for opposition back lines and that’s before you add the plethora of scoring options they have through the middle and off half back. They have 3 of the top 10 forwards in the AFL in Roughead, Breust and Gunston, who between them have kicked 156 goals so far this season. Luckily for the Pies Cyril Rioli won’t play this week so that makes the task of restricting the highest scoring team in the AFL just a little bit easier. Realistically though this is the part of the ground which will probably decide the game, with the Hawks being so powerful when they go forward that they’ve scored over 250 points more than the next best team in the AFL. The Pies backline has been decimated with no Toovey, Maxwell, Reid or Brown so it’s going to be very hard to stop the Hawks from posting a big score.

The midfield that the Hawks possess is strong, skilful and has a defensive edge to it that few others in the AFL possess. It’s no secret that the best sides win the majority of the clearances and the Hawks sure do dominate here as they are ranked 1^st for centre clearances and 2^nd for total clearances. It allows the Hawks to dictate the terms by which they want to play with and it works a treat for them. The names that rotate through this central grouping would be starting 22 players at any club, with Mitchell, Hodge, Lewis, Shiels, Hill, Smith and Sewell all class footballers but with a hard edge to them. The Magpies midfield, like most of it’s side, has been hit hard by injuries and the absence of Swan, Adams and Beams will be felt the most against this Hawks team. Everywhere you look the Pies are outmatched but football isn’t played on paper, so anything is possible.

Hawthorn will use this game as a tune up before heading into a finals series they hope will deliver them back to back flags. They may rest a player or two if they have any significant injuries but I can’t see them holding back too much, especially with a guaranteed 7 day break leading into the first final after this. The Hawthorn side is full of class, knows how to defend when they don’t have the ball and punishes sides like no other once they get on top. They are a true premiership contender and will make the Pies earn a finals spot.

 

TIP

The odds say that the Hawks are nigh on unbeatable this week but as we’ve seen already this season, and plenty of times in the past, upsets do happen. The Swans lost to GWS, and Fremantle lost to St Kilda so it’s not beyond the Magpies to cause the third huge upset of season 2014.

Of course the Hawks deserve to be favourites for this game, they are about to start a finals series where as the Pies, decimated by injuries, need to win just to be in those finals.

I just feel as if the desperate young Magpies, with more to prove and play for, may sneak across the line in a famous win for the Collingwood Football Club.

MAGPIES BY 2 POINTS.

 

 

VFL

The Collingwood VFL team has been a revelation this year and by overcoming the injury curse that has hit the club they finished 5^th on the ladder at the end of the VFL home and away rounds. This weekend they host Sandringham at of all places Victoria Park, the spiritual home of Collingwood, in an elimination final. Game time is Saturday 2pm.

Pre match Discussion Thread  on the BB – Round 23 – Collingwood vs Hawthorn - All comments

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