A NAB Cup Final spot is on the line on Saturday night in Melbourne as Collingwood and the Brisbane Lions go head to head in the third round of the AFL’s pre season competition. Both clubs come into this fixture undefeated so far, and the winner is all but guaranteed a spot in next week’s final, as they currently sit second and third on the AFL’s pre season ladder. While many may have expected Collingwood to be in contention for a NAB Cup final spot this early in the season, most didn’t have Brisbane on their radar, yet some impressive youngsters have carried them to three straight wins. There is of course some history between these two clubs, and the majority of the relevant history dates back to the most dominant period in the Lions history when they won three premierships in a row between 2001 and 2003, with two of those victories coming over Collingwood, so there is always some extra added feeling when these two clash, even if it’s only the pre season.

The Lions opened their 2013 campaign with easy wins over the Hawthorn and their hosts the Gold Coast Suns at Metricon Stadium, and the signs immediately pointed to a better showing from the team from up north this season. They then backed that form up with a come from behind win over the GWS Giants last weekend in Wagga Wagga in front of an impressive crowd of over 7,000. As mentioned the Lions trailed for most of the match after a promising start, and didn’t get the lead back until the dying minutes of the final quarter when Sam Michael kicked a goal to put Brisbane in front by 3 points, a margin that ultimately was the difference between the two sides. The stand-outs’ for the Lions in the win were Aaron Cornelius (5 goals, 4 behinds), Patrick Karnezis (26 p, 1 goal), Claye Beams (21 p), Dayne Zorko (17p, I goal, 2 behinds) and also youngster Billy Younger who did most of the ruck-work, ultimately gaining a team high 11 hitouts. The fact that most of those players are very young gives you a guide as to how impressive it has been for the Lions to notch up 3 wins in a row despite the absence of some of their superstars like Jonathan Brown and Simon Black.

Just like the Lions, the Magpies have started 2013 in form, also creating a perfect record on their run into this weekends’ final round of NAB Cup matches. And in a similar vein to the Lions, the Pies have also been able to achieve this mark without many of their top names, and that was never more evident than last weekend when Collingwood travelled to Perth without as many as 12 of it’s first choice 22 players against a strong Eagles line up, yet still managed to come away with a very impressive 20 point win in the West. The Collingwood youngsters shone on the big ground at Subiaco, with the likes of Seedsman, Elliott, Sinclair, Frost and Mooney all putting their hands up as possible inclusions for round 1 of the AFL premiership season in a months’ time. But if you’re being honest it was the handful of experienced players that the Magpies had on the park that influenced the game the most, with Scott Pendlebury and Steele Sidebottom leading the possession count, and Heath Shaw, Alan Toovey and Nick Maxwell running rings around most of the Eagles forwards in a rather dominant defensive display. There was some concern late in the game as Ben Reid hobbled off after hyper extending his knee, but the good news came through later that night that the All Australian centre half back had sustained no serious damage and would only miss a week or two.

An early look at the possible selection changes for this weekend seems to point towards plenty of rotations for both teams, as both travelled last week, and Collingwood are coming off a break of only 6 days. Possible stars to return for the Lions include Jonathan Brown, Daniel Rich, Daniel Merrett and Joel Patfull, while the Magpies are likely to include names such as Jolly, Young, Krakouer, Fasolo, Brown and Macaffer. Luke Ball was thought of as in contention this week but he may still be one more week away if reports are to be believed.

Opposition Analysis.

After disappointing results in the 2010 and 2011 AFL seasons, the Brisbane Lions bounced back in 2012 and showed they were on the right track, eventually winning 10 games and finishing a respectable 13^th on the AFL ladder after 23 rounds. The Lions started the season poorly, winning only two of their first 7 games, all but ruling them out of finals contention straight away, but they finished the season in style by winning their last 3 games to show they indeed had the potential to take that next step in 2013 and contest for a spot in the final eight. The youngsters will lean on a large group of promising young players to assist them in this push with only Jonathan Brown and Simon Black remaining out of the all conquering triple premiership from 10 years ago. The good news for the Lions at the moment is that unlike in previous seasons, they are relatively unscathed on the injury front with only Simon Black and Brent Staker likely to miss round one out of their senior players.

Brisbane’s midfield is one area that coach Michael Voss will be relying upon to lift their output in 2013, and with an extra year of development into the likes of Beams, Polec, Rich, Leuenberger, Longer, Zorko and Rockliff (among others) the Lions have the potential to possess one of the best midfield’s’ in the game within a few seasons if all their youngsters reach the potential they have shown in the past few seasons. The Lions saw a need though for a tough, hard bodied midfielder to assist their young group, and happened to be able to get ex Demon Brent Moloney via the new free agency rules, which has been a massive coup as in Moloney the Lions get a mature aged (28 years old) top level midfielder who has a knack for being a consistent performer even if his team is struggling, as Melbourne has in recent years. In the ruck department the Lions farewelled Ben Hudson after one season, but will rely on Matthew Leuenberger, youngster Billy Longer and another ex Melbourne player Stefan Martin shouldering the ruck duties in 2013, after the Lions could only manage a ranking of 16^th for total hitouts in 2012. The midfield has promise, but it will need to deliver this season for the Lions to push for a spot in the eight.

The Brisbane Lion’s forward line has had one major problem for a while now, and that’s been finding a consistent tall forward to assist club superstar Jonathan Brown up forward. In the past few seasons they’ve even used Daniel Merrett at times, which most oppositions have smiled gleefully at as Merrett is one of the best key defenders in the AFL. This pre season though, the Lions have tried to fix this problem by gaining the services of ex Demon Stefan Martin, who as suggested above will share ruck duties with Leuenberger while playing down forward also, but they also used their first two picks in the draft on young forwards Sam Mayes (187cm) and Marco Paparone (194cm). What the Lions don’t lack is small forwards though, with names like Bewick, Green, McGrath, Cornelius, Banfield and Zorko all pushing for round 1 selection, which obviously means some will miss out. The Lions were one of the lowest scoring sides of 2012, with an average of only 10.4 goals a game leaving them only marginally ahead of cross town rivals the Suns in the lower rungs of that stats category. With the names the Lions have added to the forward line though, and with some further development into some of their youngsters, the Lions long term may be able to replace the hole left by Mitch Clark.

If the Lions do possess an area that needs very little work, it is their defensive structure. The probable starting six for Brisbane in 2013 is Adcock, Mcguire, Patfull, Hanley, Golby and of course Daniel Merrett, who should return to the backline full time this season. That’s a very solid back six, and while injuries and form may mean they have to dig into their depth in this area at times, if the Lions can maintain this starting six, and some of their developing midfielders learn to assist the backline just a little more, Brisbane will start the season with confidence that the defensive end of the ground will not be the area responsible for the loss of games. The Lions do have some depth in this area too though, with Drummond, Docherty and Polkinghorne all still in consideration for round 1 in this area. All those players mentioned still have plenty of football in them, and with Merrett returning full time to the backline the Lions should improve on their 7^th placing for most points against this season.

That’s obviously a preview of the Lions squad in terms of who they may pick for round 1, and while I still fully expect them to select a strong squad for this weekends matchup with Collingwood, like all teams this time of year they won’t select their best 22 (or 24 as allowed in the NAB Cup) this weekend. The Lions however will welcome back among others Jonathan Brown and Daniel Rich who straight away will make them a better side than the one that struggled to defeat the Giants last Saturday in rural NSW. But when you do assess the Lions list as I did above, you see they do have that buzz word “potential” and could well be one of the surprise challengers for a spot in the bottom of the final eight in 2013.

Teams;

Coming soon.

Tip.

No matter what you here out of the coaches respective press conferences this week, with a NAB cup final position all but guaranteed for the winner, both clubs will be eyeing off a win and the cash bonus that comes with it, which means the teams will approach this game with just a little more fervour than they have so far this pre season. Having said that both participants will still rotate their squads heavily, especially given the conditions leading into this game, with the Pies coming off a 6 day break and an interstate trip, and the Lions forced to travel for the second week in a row. The likely line ups favour the Pies though, as there’s no question at all that Collingwood has by far the stronger list, and if both teams leave several key players out it won’t change that too advantage too much.

The probable return of Darren Jolly, along with the likes of Macaffer, Krakouer, Fasolo and Brown may be offset by the resting of some other stars, but the Magpies list is now about as strong as any other teams in the competition, and of course they will have the home ground advantage and a very passionate group of fans behind them. The Lions will counter that though with a strong side, and with Brown and Rich back they will make this game a contest, but I just can’t go past the Pies continuing on their way as they qualify for yet another NAB Cup final.

Pies by 17 points.

Pre match Discussion Thread  on the BB – NAB Cup – Pies v. Lions. All comments

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