It’s almost finals time in the 2013 AFL premiership season with round 23 finally upon us. It’s the last round of the home and away season and Collingwood and North Melbourne matchup at the MCG on Sunday both finding themselves well and truly alive. The Magpies are certain of being involved in their 8^th consecutive finals series while the Kangaroos need a lot of things to go their way if they are to make the finals for the second season in a row. It’s highly likely that the Pies will finish 6^th and face off against Port Adelaide in week one of the finals, a game that they’d start favourites in for sure. North on the other hand need a string of results to go their way, and not all of those are on the field. The Roos need both Carlton and Brisbane to lose but they also required Essendon to be knocked out of the finals as punishment, something that only became official on Tuesday night. With Essendon out of the equation, if North were to pull of a victory this weekend over the Pies, they’d sneak into 8^th spot and likely play Richmond if the other results fell their way. It’s a long and complicated set of scenarios but by the time this game starts on Sunday afternoon the equation will be clearer for both teams.

Since these two clubs last met back in round one (Collingwood came away with a 16 point lead) they have been through a range of challenges and hurdles that have ultimately left their fans to a large degree disappointed. Collingwood considered themselves a genuine premiership contender yet due to injuries and a somewhat changing of the guard they now sit outside the all important top four. The Magpies learned early on that they weren’t going to have some of their best players available for large periods of the season so youngsters and newcomers were given opportunities galore. Some of those new faces have flourished while others have struggled but the Pies are arguably right now in their best form of their season. North Melbourne also have had a season of struggles, with injuries and the under performance of some of their big names leaving them languishing in 11^th spot at the moment. In a normal season this game would be a dead rubber between a finals side that probably can’t move forward and a team no longer with any goals to achieve. Thanks to Essendon though this isn’t a normal season so come 3.20pm on Sunday afternoon the Kangaroos may be playing for a spot in the finals after all.

PREVIOUS FORM

North has under achieved this season, yet a few weeks back, after wins against Melbourne and Geelong it seemed as if the Roos were going to make a late charge for the finals. Recent losses to Adelaide and Hawthorn (with an easy win against Essendon sandwiched in between) means that the Kangaroos fate is basically out of their control now. The win against Geelong was probably a season high and came at a time when their fans needed hope that their season wasn’t going to end prematurely. In that game North showed exactly what they are capable of on their day and that’s probably why most football pundits are so disappointed in where they currently sit on the ladder.

Last week they took on the ladder leading Hawks and another upset seemed on the cards as North led by 26 points early in the second quarter, but from then on the Hawks took control to eventually fight back and win by 14 points. It was no disgrace to lose to the Hawks like that but once again North had given up a lead and lost a game, something that has become far too familiar in season 2013.

Collingwood has been a fascinating case study in season 2013, a team that at the start of the year was a premiership threat and even now could compete, and probably defeat just about anyone in the competition. Their recent form shows this with wins over Essendon, Sydney and the Eagles and a highly competitive loss against the Hawks despite circumstances being against them (back to back 6 day breaks). After that loss to the Hawks the Pies top 4 chances ended yet they bounced straight back to form with a stunning first quarter against the struggling West Coast Eagles last Friday night. The Pies opened the game in awesome fashion eventually taking an 8 goal to 2 lead at the first break. The rest of the game didn’t quite reach the same level but the highlight of the 62 point win for most at the ground, and watching on TV was the return of Alan Didak. Didak came on as the sub midway through the third term and when he ran into an open goal and converted late in the last quarter the entire Magpie crowd were on their feet, and every Pies player ran to him in one of the best moments of 2013 so far. Didak has struggled in 2013 with both personal and fitness issues but it was great to see the whole club react that way to the return of the premiership champion. It was a win that ensured Collingwood would get a home final also.

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

While on the surface it would seem to be a disappointing season for the Collingwood Football Club, 2013 has turned into somewhat of a rebuilding year for the Magpies. The Pies have used 40 players in their senior side in 2013, more than the likes of Gold Coast, Melbourne and St Kilda. The game plan at the club is also starting to come together as senior coach Nathan Buckley puts his brand on a list that for so long belonged to Mick Malthouse. The Pies are more attacking now, they are willing to use the corridor when they have the opportunity to, but their pressure and tackling is still vital to their success each week. Over the past four weeks the Magpies intensity both at the ball and at the opposition has been noticeably higher than it has been for all of this season, and that’s a great sign on the eve of the finals. The recent wins over Essendon and Sydney and the ruthless way that the Pies put the Eagles away showed that this side really is nearing it’s top available form right now. North should be a great test for the Pies too and a tough, hard game may be exactly what they need leading into an elimination final.

At the selection table this week Collingwood has a few options with Dayne Beams, Jamie Elliott and Ben Sinclair all likely to be fit to return after missing last weekend’s win over the Eagles. Luke Ball was subbed out for Alan Didak in that game with calf soreness but from all reports the tough midfielder will be ready to go also. That means there’s some tough decision to be made with three players having to be omitted from the 22 that played last Friday night. Those to come under pressure will include Paul Seedsman, Sam Dwyer, Alan Didak and Ben Kennedy and there’s still the chance that anyone who isn’t 100% may be rested just one week out from the finals. It’s a nice problem to have, possessing so many players who could be in the final 22 but having to make some hard decisions at selection.

There are two side stories to this weeks game for Collingwood and the first one is long overdue in the eyes of most Magpie fans. Brodie Grundy, the most impressive young ruckman in the league, finally got his rising star nomination (round 22 nomination) after several top quality games against some of the best ruckman in the AFL. The young South Australian was taken with pick 18 in last year’s draft but may well turn out to be the absolute steal of last years’ draft stock for sure.

The second extra to this game revolves around Travis Cloke and the fight for the Coleman medal, the award given to the leading goal kicker in the AFL. Coming into the final round Cloke trails Hawthorn’s Jarryd Roughead by just 3 goals, and it’s Cloke on Sunday who will get last crack at any total as he is only real contender playing on Sunday. It just adds something extra to a game that already has so much riding on it.

OPPOSITION ANALYSIS

It’s been a below par season for North Melbourne in 2013 so far, but with a bit of luck they still could be playing finals. If they happen to defeat Collingwood this week and the other results fall their way, there’s an argument to be made that they would be the toughest of the possible eighth placed teams to face in week one of the finals. North have set a record this year for losses under 16 points and have given up leads so often that the defensive of their game has come into question at times. There’s no doubting this side is talented but it really does struggle to defend against an opponent who gets on a roll, with comparisons to the Richmond sides of the past probably being apt. Amongst all the heartbreaking losses though there has been hope for the future with the club’s self admittance that they do possess one of the best young lists in the AFL.

North Melbourne’s midfeld has been a strength for them in 2013 with the club ranked 4^th for both clearances and centre clearances. Having one of the best ruck divisions in the AFL also helps with Todd Goldstein in contention for the All Australian ruck role. North currently sit 3^rd for hitouts for but more importantly they have conceded the least amount of hitouts against, a stat that shows Goldstein’s improvement this year. The midfield brigade is deep and talented with Bastinac, Swallow (injured), Adams, Ziebell, Wells, Cunnington, Harvey and Greenwood all playing on the ball at different times. Of course they run into one of the most talented midfields in the competition this week with Beams, Ball, Swan, Pendlebury and co likely to test the limits of the Kangaroos midfield. North should dominate the ruck although every week youngster Brodie Grundy has continued to step up and match it with the best rucks in the AFL and off a 9 day break you’d think the young star might improve even further. This won’t be where the game is won or lost because neither side will have a distinct advantage.

The Kangaroos backline may well be their biggest weakness this week with the absence of Scott Thompson and Nathan Grima greatly effecting their ability to defend effectively. Thompson is the big loss as he may well have even been in All Australian contention before a lung injury ruled him out for the rest of the home and away season a few weeks back. In his absence the likes of Delaney, Hansen and Firrito will be given the task of restricting the Pies three tall forwards Cloke, Lynch and Reid. Reid is the one that has changed the Magpies forward line in recent weeks with most teams unable to fins a matchup for the agile former All Australian centre half back. Collingwood’s small forwards aren’t as dangerous as most teams and North will feel confident in restricting their influence, but if the ball is delivered more often into the Pies forward zone than the Roos it’s hard to see this backline standing up and holding on effectively.

North Melbourne’s forward line is dangerous and also has it’s own three pronged attack with Lindsay Thomas (50 goals), Drew Petrie (46 goals) and Aaron Black (31 goals) all capable of kicking a bag if they aren’t defended well for an entire game. Black has stepped in this season and assisted Thomas and Petrie, both who it could be argued are having their best season as forwards in their AFL careers. The Pies backline has also struggled at times to contain dangerous opposition forward lines but the improvement of youngsters Lachlan Keeffe and Marley Williams has assisted the older brigade in the absence of the ever reliable defender Alan Toovey. If North can move the ball quickly inside their forward 50 they may be able to put enough pressure on the Magpie defenders to post a score that will be hard to beat indeed.

North Melbourne will be wanting to win this game even if their chances of finals action are dead by Sunday and to do that they will have to defend more effectively than they have at times this season. Leigh Adams is a chance to return and forward Robbie Tarrant has been cleared to play despite suffering a broken nose in last week’s loss to the Hawks. The major problem seems to be how to stop Travis Cloke, as even in round one Thompson could only restrict him to 4 goals and with Thompson missing it’s hard to see Cloke not dominating this game. Accuracy may be the answer for the Roos though as they sit third for goal kicking accuracy while the Pies are languishing down in 14^th, and Cloke as we all know is a major reason for that. Either way the Roos as a club will want to finish the 2013 home and away season off in style, even if their chances of making finals are gone by the time this game starts.

TIP

It’s a tough game to tip because of the situation that presents itself going into the final round. There’s a lot of “ifs” that will play themselves out before the 3.20pm start time on Sunday and how they eventuate may well decide who comes out the more fired up in this game. If the Pies still have a chance of finishing 5^th, and therefore avoiding a probable second week trip to Perth their motivation will be high but if the Tigers win on Saturday there’s not much other than personal form to play for. North on the other hand obviously need two results to go their way before Saturday ends if they are to still be alive heading into Sunday.

If both the Blues and Lions lose North will be fired up but you have to still believe that Collingwood are the superior side and at the MCG they should head into the finals in style with a win by a small margin.

PIES BY 11 POINTS.

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